The role of the building sector in

the climate change mitigation

challenge

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz

director

Mainstreaming Building Energy Efficiency Codes

in Developing Countries

Nov 19 2009 World Bank Washington DC

3CSEP

Overview

Introduction the CC mitigation challenge

The global and regional importance of the

buildings sector in CC

How far can buildings take us

the risk of the lock-in effect

Summary ndash recommendations for codes

worldwide

3CSEP

Overview

Introduction the CC mitigation challenge

The global and regional importance of the

buildings sector in CC

How far can buildings take us

the risk of the lock-in effect

Summary ndash recommendations for codes

worldwide

The climate change mitigation

challenge

3CSEP

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Wo

rld

CO

2E

mis

sio

ns (

GtC

)

In order to limit the impacts of CC GHG

emissions have to be reduced significantly

bull Stabilizing global mean temperature

requires a stabilization of GHG

concentrations in the atmosphere -gt

GHG emissions would need to peak and

decline thereafter (SPM 18 WG III)

bull The lower the target stabilisation level

limit the earlier global emissions have to

peak

bull Limiting increase to 32 ndash 4degC requires

emissions to peak within the next 55

yearsbull Limiting increase to 28 ndash 32degC requires

global emissions to peak within 25 years

bull Limiting global mean temperature

increases to 2 ndash 24degC above pre-

industrial levels requires global

emissions to peak within 15 years and

then fall to about 50 to 85 of current

levels by 2050

E 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D 710-850 ppm CO2-eq

C 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2 490-535 ppm CO2-eq

A1 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilisation targets

Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

Based on SPM 7 WG III Emission pathways to mitigation scenarios

3CSEP

Probability distribution for the committed warming by

GHGs between 1750 and 2005

Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature

threshold range

ldquoeven the most aggressive

CO2 mitigation steps as

envisioned now can only limit

further additions to the

committed warming but not

reduce the already committed

GHGs warming of 24

degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008

Atmospheric Environment)

3CSEP

The later emissions peak the more

ambitious reductions needed

Source Meinshausen et al 2009

The role of the buildings sector

in CC mitigation global and

regional importance

3CSEP

GHG emissions from buildings in 2004

(in Gt CO2 equivalent)

Energy-related

direct CO2

3 Gt 28

Electricity-related

indirect CO2

56 Gt 53

total energy-related

CO2 86 Gt 81

CH4 04 Gt 4

N2O

01 Gt 1

Halocarbons

15 Gt 14

Building sector global importance

In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-

related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions

3CSEP

Buildings sector regional

importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at

approximately 13 of energy-related CO2

CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Wo

rld

CO

2E

mis

sio

ns (

GtC

)

In order to limit the impacts of CC GHG

emissions have to be reduced significantly

bull Stabilizing global mean temperature

requires a stabilization of GHG

concentrations in the atmosphere -gt

GHG emissions would need to peak and

decline thereafter (SPM 18 WG III)

bull The lower the target stabilisation level

limit the earlier global emissions have to

peak

bull Limiting increase to 32 ndash 4degC requires

emissions to peak within the next 55

yearsbull Limiting increase to 28 ndash 32degC requires

global emissions to peak within 25 years

bull Limiting global mean temperature

increases to 2 ndash 24degC above pre-

industrial levels requires global

emissions to peak within 15 years and

then fall to about 50 to 85 of current

levels by 2050

E 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D 710-850 ppm CO2-eq

C 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2 490-535 ppm CO2-eq

A1 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilisation targets

Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

Based on SPM 7 WG III Emission pathways to mitigation scenarios

3CSEP

Probability distribution for the committed warming by

GHGs between 1750 and 2005

Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature

threshold range

ldquoeven the most aggressive

CO2 mitigation steps as

envisioned now can only limit

further additions to the

committed warming but not

reduce the already committed

GHGs warming of 24

degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008

Atmospheric Environment)

3CSEP

The later emissions peak the more

ambitious reductions needed

Source Meinshausen et al 2009

The role of the buildings sector

in CC mitigation global and

regional importance

3CSEP

GHG emissions from buildings in 2004

(in Gt CO2 equivalent)

Energy-related

direct CO2

3 Gt 28

Electricity-related

indirect CO2

56 Gt 53

total energy-related

CO2 86 Gt 81

CH4 04 Gt 4

N2O

01 Gt 1

Halocarbons

15 Gt 14

Building sector global importance

In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-

related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions

3CSEP

Buildings sector regional

importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at

approximately 13 of energy-related CO2

CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

Probability distribution for the committed warming by

GHGs between 1750 and 2005

Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature

threshold range

ldquoeven the most aggressive

CO2 mitigation steps as

envisioned now can only limit

further additions to the

committed warming but not

reduce the already committed

GHGs warming of 24

degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008

Atmospheric Environment)

3CSEP

The later emissions peak the more

ambitious reductions needed

Source Meinshausen et al 2009

The role of the buildings sector

in CC mitigation global and

regional importance

3CSEP

GHG emissions from buildings in 2004

(in Gt CO2 equivalent)

Energy-related

direct CO2

3 Gt 28

Electricity-related

indirect CO2

56 Gt 53

total energy-related

CO2 86 Gt 81

CH4 04 Gt 4

N2O

01 Gt 1

Halocarbons

15 Gt 14

Building sector global importance

In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-

related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions

3CSEP

Buildings sector regional

importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at

approximately 13 of energy-related CO2

CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

The later emissions peak the more

ambitious reductions needed

Source Meinshausen et al 2009

The role of the buildings sector

in CC mitigation global and

regional importance

3CSEP

GHG emissions from buildings in 2004

(in Gt CO2 equivalent)

Energy-related

direct CO2

3 Gt 28

Electricity-related

indirect CO2

56 Gt 53

total energy-related

CO2 86 Gt 81

CH4 04 Gt 4

N2O

01 Gt 1

Halocarbons

15 Gt 14

Building sector global importance

In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-

related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions

3CSEP

Buildings sector regional

importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at

approximately 13 of energy-related CO2

CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

The role of the buildings sector

in CC mitigation global and

regional importance

3CSEP

GHG emissions from buildings in 2004

(in Gt CO2 equivalent)

Energy-related

direct CO2

3 Gt 28

Electricity-related

indirect CO2

56 Gt 53

total energy-related

CO2 86 Gt 81

CH4 04 Gt 4

N2O

01 Gt 1

Halocarbons

15 Gt 14

Building sector global importance

In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-

related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions

3CSEP

Buildings sector regional

importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at

approximately 13 of energy-related CO2

CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

GHG emissions from buildings in 2004

(in Gt CO2 equivalent)

Energy-related

direct CO2

3 Gt 28

Electricity-related

indirect CO2

56 Gt 53

total energy-related

CO2 86 Gt 81

CH4 04 Gt 4

N2O

01 Gt 1

Halocarbons

15 Gt 14

Building sector global importance

In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-

related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions

3CSEP

Buildings sector regional

importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at

approximately 13 of energy-related CO2

CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

Buildings sector regional

importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at

approximately 13 of energy-related CO2

CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

The buildings sector offers the largest low-

cost potential in all world regions by 2030

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral

level in 2030 in different cost categories transition

economies

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0

0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a

sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories in developing countries

Constructed based on Chapter 11 results

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

How far can buildings take us

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

3CSEP

Few sectors can deliver the

magnitude of emission reduction

neededknow-how has recently developed that we can

build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90

savings as compared to standard practice in all

climate zones (providing similar or increased

service levels)

Photos from Gunter Lang

Buildings utilising passive solar

construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz

0

50

100

150

200

250

Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům

ce

lkovaacute e

ne

rgie

[kW

hm

2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče

Vzduchotechnika

Ohřev TUV

Vytaacutepěniacute

- 90

- 75

3CSEP

ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job

creation and addressing low income population

problemsrdquo

Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

3CSEP

The Global Energy Assessment

Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)

blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social

environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be

addressed this century

We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a

future but how much

GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-

type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the

really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-

model by existing modeling frameworks

UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the

buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)

3CSEP

Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to

todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture

At the most affordable cost

At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit

Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming

ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy

environment

The main pillars of the model are existing best practices

Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective

as well

The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones

and 3 building types

Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone

has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050

several scenarios planned

Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated

renewables +behavioural change

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate

-65

Opportunity or risk

The size of the potential lock-in effect

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job

creation and addressing low income population

problemsrdquo

Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

3CSEP

The Global Energy Assessment

Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)

blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social

environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be

addressed this century

We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a

future but how much

GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-

type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the

really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-

model by existing modeling frameworks

UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the

buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)

3CSEP

Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to

todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture

At the most affordable cost

At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit

Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming

ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy

environment

The main pillars of the model are existing best practices

Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective

as well

The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones

and 3 building types

Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone

has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050

several scenarios planned

Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated

renewables +behavioural change

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate

-65

Opportunity or risk

The size of the potential lock-in effect

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

The Global Energy Assessment

Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)

blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social

environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be

addressed this century

We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a

future but how much

GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-

type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the

really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-

model by existing modeling frameworks

UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the

buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)

3CSEP

Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to

todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture

At the most affordable cost

At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit

Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming

ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy

environment

The main pillars of the model are existing best practices

Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective

as well

The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones

and 3 building types

Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone

has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050

several scenarios planned

Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated

renewables +behavioural change

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate

-65

Opportunity or risk

The size of the potential lock-in effect

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to

todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture

At the most affordable cost

At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit

Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming

ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy

environment

The main pillars of the model are existing best practices

Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective

as well

The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones

and 3 building types

Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone

has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050

several scenarios planned

Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated

renewables +behavioural change

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate

-65

Opportunity or risk

The size of the potential lock-in effect

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate

-65

Opportunity or risk

The size of the potential lock-in effect

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

Opportunity or risk

The size of the potential lock-in effect

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-27

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG

V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

235570 230784 228894

193335

171956

144538

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

H H NY H NYF

kJ

lm

3

H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes

Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa

Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter

3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos

20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos

-18 -25 -36

Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V

Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-77

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-42

Final thermal energy consumption in the

worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

TW

h

14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit

14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit

30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit

The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit

different retrofit rates

Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings

35

32

23

values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

Non-OECD building thermal final energy

consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-

how

000

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

-63

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

-43

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

+60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TWh

Space heating and cooling final energy consumption

05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

+103

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region

Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final

thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building

codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty

eliminated

To reach ambitious values

Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented

Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated

Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)

Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild

2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for

3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate

Major lock-in risks exist

Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk

Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing

achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades

Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex

deep retrofit is not possible yet

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

3CSEP

ldquoFrom today each new building

constructed in an energy-

wasting manner or retrofited

to a suboptimal level will lock

us into a high climate-

footprint futurerdquo

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

Thank you for your attention

Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana

Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU

http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg

Email vorsatzdceuhu

Supplementary slides

3CSEP

Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra

becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző

koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek

Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek

Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-

100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi

gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi

fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes

probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol

nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a

zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi

gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi

fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak

megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-

nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek

Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg

fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok

Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of building

energy-efficiency programs (15)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (25)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (35)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra

becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző

koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq

lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)

For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20

US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs

below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2

Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek

Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek

Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-

100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi

gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi

fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes

probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol

nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a

zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi

gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi

fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak

megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-

nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek

Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg

fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok

Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of building

energy-efficiency programs (15)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (25)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (35)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi

gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi

fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes

probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol

nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a

zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi

gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi

fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak

megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-

nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek

Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg

fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok

Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of building

energy-efficiency programs (15)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (25)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (35)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi

gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi

fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak

megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-

nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek

Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg

fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok

Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of building

energy-efficiency programs (15)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (25)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (35)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of building

energy-efficiency programs (15)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (25)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (35)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (25)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (35)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (35)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (45)

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Quantified non-energy benefits of

building energy-efficiency programs (55)

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi

eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega

Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz

Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti

lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb

A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye

noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is

Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi

struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az

eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel

Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa

Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel

A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt

Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa

A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak

keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor

araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben

Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni

Panelprogram 10 ndash 30

Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera

Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet

Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Click to edit Master title style

ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg

munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű

lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo

Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006

Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kW

hm

2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84

Előtte

Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia

Fosszilis energia

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1

Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek

minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel

Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező

A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az

energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)

koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a

gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG

csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes

Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb

energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni

Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra

Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi

beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana

A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben

2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

TWh

OECD90

Asia

REF

MAF

LAC

Aacutezsia

A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-

naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny

-75

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi

forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese

BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h BAU

MIT Passive accelerated

68

Forraacutes

Katarina

Korytarova

draft

dissertation

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Example of savings by

reconstruction Reconstruction according

to the passive house

principle

-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)

Before reconstruction

Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

What is a sustainable

level of retrofit

Ecofys (Hermelink

How deep to go) 2009 finds

For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses

From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation

= savings of 80 - 90

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

Characteristics of stabilisation

scenarios and the emission

reduction needs

Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof

FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler

Blocks of Flats

160 dwellings

14 767 msup2

Passive House Technology

15 kwh msup2 per year

Extra costs

= 3-5 of the total costs

Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this

copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88

3CSEP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

60002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

Axis

Tit

le

Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit

levels

MAF TWhyr

LAC TWhyr

REF TWhyr

Asia TWhyr

+25

-88