The role oF NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY’s energy future
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Transcript of The role oF NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY’s energy future
THE ROLE OF NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY’S ENERGY FUTURE
Dr. Sohbet Karbuz
INGAS 2009Istanbul, 10 June 2009
OUTLINE
Natural gas in Turkey’s Energy Demand
Turkey’s future gas supply
Turkey: a gas hub, or corridor, or transit ?
Is the EU serious about energy security ?
Concluding remarks
Coal
29.9%
Oil
14.3%
Com Renew55.0%
Ncom Renew0.8%
10.7 Mtoe in 1960
Coal
28.5%
Oil
30.0%
Natural gas32.0%
Com Renew5.0%
Ncom Renew4.5%
97 Mtoe in 2008
Coal
29.4%
Oil
23.8%
Natural gas32.8%
Nuclear3.6%
Com Renew1.1%
Ncom Renew9.2%
251 Mtoe in 2030
90% fossil fuel 86% fossil fuel
business as usual is not sustainable
TURKEY’S ENERGY DEMAND
Source: OME
Primary Energy Production
Demand will grow much faster than production Energy import dependency will worsen, 74% by 2030
Progress in renewable energy developments has been very slow.
GAS DEMAND IN EURO-MED (MTOE, 2005 VS 2030)
Coal: #4 #2 Oil: #8 #6 Total: #7 #3 Ele: #7 #1,2
Power generation
54%
Industry12%
Residential & Services
33%
Other1%
Natural gas consumption in
2007:30 Mtoe Power
generation54%
Industry10%
Residential & Services
35%
Other1%
Natural gas consumption in
2030:83 Mtoe
Sources: IEA, BOTAȘ, and OME
Turkey’s Gas Demand
Power generation is and will remain the key sector
41%
29%
22%
Gas will remain #1, but its share will decline from ~50% in 2007 to 41% by 2030
Gross Electricity Production by Fuel
Turkey’s Natural Gas Demand
Gas import dependency 97% in 2008
more tomorrow
Turkey’s Natural Gas Supply
Domestic gas production in the future is not very promising
Natural Gas Dependency, 2007
Natural Gas Imports and Dependency on Russia, 2007
Chemchemal
Khor Mor
Akkas
??
Tamar, Dalit ??
??
Is the EU serious about gas supply security?
Supports politically motivated sanctions against …. Lacks far sighted coherent policies and priorities…. Diversification of supply, but
EU pledged €1.85 bn for modernization of Ukraine’s pipelinesBUT, The European Energy Programme for Recovery allocation for Gas Infrastructure is €1440 M Of which Nabucco €200 M (€250 M, German opposition/Polish
support)
Russia turns the screw on Ukraine Nord Stream and S. Stream will compete more with
the current transport system Revise Energy Charter Treaty? Energy should not become the currency of power in
EU-Turkey relations
Future of Nabucco
South Stream vs Nabucco: escalating “competition” 8 May 2009 Prague: Nabucco (or Southern Corridor) 15 May 2009 Sochi: S. Stream (63 bcm/yr) , signatures… 17 May 2009: OMV-MOL announcement of Iraqi project 25 June 2009 Nabucco IGA?
15% off the table ?? Azeri tango with Russia (not really) Turkey, if it has a role, should act as a bridge, not a
hub…. Develop 4 hubs (in Baku, Romania, Greece, Italy)….explore alternatives (WS) “even if an acceptable Corridor Agreement would (or would not) be found with Turkey”….include LNG development in Romania and perhaps Bulgaria! Jozias Van Aartsen, European Coordinator for Southern Corridor (known as Nabucco co-ordinator), Activity Report: September 2007-February 2009.
Conclusions Turkey is an emerging regional
and global energy player. A geostrategic energy hub and
corridor for producers & consumers; IOCs & NOCs; and investors
But lacks a comprehensive, forward looking energy (security) strategy. The world “strategy” should be used properly
Policy decisions should not be formulated by looking through the pipelines
Thank you for your attention.