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The Role Of Human Bias In Our Analysis And Decision-Making Accuracy 圖資三 張雅婷 圖資三...
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Transcript of The Role Of Human Bias In Our Analysis And Decision-Making Accuracy 圖資三 張雅婷 圖資三...
![Page 1: The Role Of Human Bias In Our Analysis And Decision-Making Accuracy 圖資三 張雅婷 圖資三 鄭文音.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061406/56649ecd5503460f94bda189/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Role Of Human
Bias In OurAnalys
is And Decision-
Making Accuracy
圖資三 張雅婷
圖資三 鄭文音
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Cognitive BiasBase rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effectExperimenter's or Expectation biasIllusion of control , Impact biasInformation bias, Irrational escalation
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Cognitive BiasBase rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effectExperimenter's or Expectation biasIllusion of control , Impact biasInformation bias, Irrational escalation
Groupthink
Blindspots
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Groupthink
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Cause of Groupthink
A desire to avoid being seen as foolish
A desire to avoid embarrassing or angering
A culture that mutes risk-taking
other members of the group
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Challenger
All member felt obligated to live up to the group “norms”
Any suggestion that would lead to a delay was rejected.
Employees conducted private conversation are underhigh stress and concerned about losing future
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Other tragic resultAttack on Pearl Harbor
Vietnam War
Korean War
Invasion of Iraq
“I’m not interested in groupthink!”
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Blindspots
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Types of Blindspots
Unchallenged assumptions
Corporate myths
Corporate taboos
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Top 3 Tech Howlers
The iPod will never take off.
There is no reason for any individualto have a computer in his home.
Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years. ?
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Top 3 Tech Howlers
The iPod will never take off.
There is no reason for any individualto have a computer in his home.
Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.
![Page 12: The Role Of Human Bias In Our Analysis And Decision-Making Accuracy 圖資三 張雅婷 圖資三 鄭文音.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061406/56649ecd5503460f94bda189/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Ken Olsen
The CEO and founder of DEC
Have strong opinions about PC
Corporate myth
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Call in external resources or outside experts to review your work
1.
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Have someone you trust review your work
2.
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3. Keep an open mind Question everything
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Think objectively byplacing yourself in the position of an outsider
4.
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5. Get in the habit ofquestioning all assumptions
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Play devil’s advocate if necessary.
6.
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Have two teams work on the same request7.
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Do not hold a personal attachment or assign over-important to your own recommendation
8.
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9. Rotate roles and responsibilities within your competitive intelligence team
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10.As a manager try and hold your opinions to yourself
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T.HANKS