The risk of fire, how we react to that risk, and why we regulate for fire safety

Presented byStephen Kip

M.EngFire Safety Engineer

SKIP Consulting Pty Ltd

The risk of fire

“Risk” is defined as the probability of an event occurring, times the consequence of the event

r = p x c

i.e. high consequence, low probability events are still significant “risks”(See Australian/New Zealand Standard 4360, for more detail)

What is ‘risk’What is ‘risk’

Consequences

Probability Insignificant

1

Minor

2

Moderate

3

Major

4

Catastrophic

5

A (almost certain) H H E E E

B (likely) M H H E E

C (moderate) L M H E E

D (unlikely) L L M H E

E (rare) L L M H H

Qualitative risk analysis matrix for thelevel of risk (from AS/NZS4360)

Qualitative risk analysis matrix for thelevel of risk (from AS/NZS4360)

E = extreme risk, immediate action requiredH = high risk, senior management attention neededM = moderate risk, management responsibility must be specifiedL = Low risk, manage by routine procedures

Is fire a significant risk?

All deaths in Australia, ABS (2001)All deaths in Australia, ABS (2001)

Cancer29%

Heart disease20%

All other causes

23%

Heart failure2%

Diabetes2%

Arteries2%

Intentional self harm2%

Flu/pneumonia2%

Accidents4% Respiratory

5%

Stroke9%

3303.0 Causes of Death, Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001)

~128,000 total deaths

4% of 128,000 = ~5,120 accidental deaths per year

Causes of Accidental deaths (1985-87)Causes of Accidental deaths (1985-87)

Road Vehicle55%

Other transport

4%

Accident fall17%

Fire and flames

2%

Submersion, suffocation

8%

Others14%

Australian Bureau of Statistics, (Fire Safety and Engineering, Technical Papers - Book 1, Warren Centre, University of Sydney, 1989)

~5,000 accidental deaths

2% of 5,000 = ~ 100 accidental fire deaths per year

17% of 5,000 = ~ 850 accidental ‘slips, trips and falls’ deaths per year

7 x greater

risk of accidental fall

New South Wales Fire Brigade statisticsNew South Wales Fire Brigade statistics

More males than females die in fires. (~2x)

Children (0-4 yrs.) ~16% of fire deaths (2x)

Elderly (65+ yrs.) ~31% or 3x

~70% of fatalities occur in dwellings

(usually in apartments of fire origin)

Fatalities by AgeFatalities by Age

Cause of Building FiresCause of Building Fires

NSWFB Incidents and Responses, 1989-1999

Arson is about 25% of all fire starts

Types of property involvedTypes of property involved

NSWFB Incidents and Responses, 1989-1999

63%

69%

MFB (Vic) statistics from 2000-2010 (62 deaths)MFB (Vic) statistics from 2000-2010 (62 deaths)

Elderly (65+ yrs.) 66% of all fire deaths.

Elderly (65+ yrs.) 3.7 times more likely to be a fire fatality.

People with a disability 4.2 times more likely to be a fire

fatality.

Smoking materials the leading cause of preventable fires

and 34% of fire fatalities.

Most common room of fire origin in fatal fires is the

bedroom (46%).

58% of fire fatalities had a non-working smoke alarm, or no

smoke alarm present.

69% of fire fatalities occurred at night (8.00pm-8.00 am).

63% of fire fatalities lived alone (people who live alone are

7.1 times more likely to be a fire fatality).

19% of fire fatalities were hoarders.

At least 35% of fire fatalities were smokers.

MFB (Vic) statistics from 2000-2010 (62 deaths)MFB (Vic) statistics from 2000-2010 (62 deaths)

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts, for support rather than illumination."

Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

So what do these statistics tell us?So what do these statistics tell us?

But they do tell us the probability (likelihood) of a fire occurring is low, but the consequence can

be significant

How do we react to fire risk?

So if the probability of fire (rate of occurrence) is so low, why is it such a big deal in legislation, the Media etc.?

Acceptable Risk =

Calculated Risk (P x C) + Community Outrage

Usually reflected in the prescriptive outcomes of

legislation

Often determined by statistics from deaths,

injuries etc.

Input to Public Policy process by the

community (coroner, politicians, royal

commissions etc.)

Acceptable Risk = Calculated Risk (P x C) + Community Outrage

AR = (P x C) + CO

Acceptable Risk = Calculated Risk (P x C) + Community Outrage

AR = (P x C) + CO

Risk categories

Examples of measurable risk levels

Examples of measurable risk levels Typical quantification values

Category I

Intolerable and unjustifiable risk

Category V

Acceptable, Trivial risk

Category IV

Broadly acceptable, Negligible risk

Category IIITolerable only if cost < gain

Category II

Tolerable only if cost significant

10-4 per year

10-5 per year

10-6 per year

10-7 per year

Limit Royal Society,car accident deaths

Limit for WA Environmental Protection Authority

Objective for NSW Dept. of Planning, U.K. Royal Society

Lighting Strike Deaths

Existing Class 3 bldgs, 4 x 10-6

Existing Class 9a bldgs, 3 x 10-6

Car Accident deaths

Workplace accidents

Drowning accidental deaths

Lightning strike deaths

Cost versus Safety

0 100Safety (%)

0

∞

Co

st

($)

Absolute safety costs an infinite amount of money

speed limits and BCA performance requirements

A legislative benchmark gives some indication of acceptable safety vs cost e.g.

Safer?Safe enough?

What about the cost of safety?What about the cost of safety?

For example, most fire brigade matters cost should not be a significant influence, but for professional engineers/consultants it is a key factor and ethical obligation

Why do we regulate for fire safe buildings?

The community does not accept multi-family deaths, deaths in care facilities (hospitals, nursing homes etc.) as being the same as deaths in one’s own home or from car accidents, cancer, smoking etc.

The community considers the death of two children in a hospital fire different to the death of two elderly people in their own home.

For example, the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria's Australia resulted in 173 fire deaths, but heat stroke deaths in the three day heatwave a week earlier were 374 in excess of expected.

This ‘varying value of human life’ factor influences the political process.

Why do we regulate for fire safe buildings ?Why do we regulate for fire safe buildings ?

Fire is a ‘rare’ event with potentially catastrophic

‘consequences’ (so can still be a ‘high risk’ event).

Fires that burn within a building will burn more fiercely that

a fire burning in the open air outside (the concept of

‘enclosure fires’)

Why do we regulate for fire safe buildings ?Why do we regulate for fire safe buildings ?

When a person is asleep the sense of smell (olfactory

sense) is switched off and therefore normal human

reactions to fire will not operate effectively.

Certain groups in society, especially those who are under

care or supervision, are at greater risk from fire (the aged,

disabled, children etc.)

Fire safety system performance degrades overtime (like

all mechanical, hydraulic or passive systems)

Why do we regulate for fire safe buildings ?Why do we regulate for fire safe buildings ?

Essential Safety Measures Reliability over Time

Design life of buildingin years (typically a minimum of 25 years)

Reliabilityand/or effect-

ivenessof building fire safety systems

at time of in-stallation and commission-

ing (max 100%)

We ‘maintain’ systems to avoid this stage

Monthly hydrant test

Yearly hydrant test

6 year hydrostatic test

Who determines Acceptable Risk ?Who determines Acceptable Risk ?

Building fire safety legislation represents the Governments

direction (via community feedback) to describe

“reasonable” and “acceptable” risk for the community at

large to bear in terms of cost, resources and other

impacts.

The Government does this because, broadly speaking, the

community is incapable of establishing and maintaining

agreed acceptable risk levels.

Example of Acceptable Risk at an individual levelExample of Acceptable Risk at an individual level

Imposed risk

Individually accepted risk

Who determines what is Acceptable Risk for the community ?

Who determines what is Acceptable Risk for the community ?

Typically, risks we choose for ourselves (and our family)

are not regulated, unless a significant ‘community

outrage’ exists.

Risks we have imposed on us are usually regulated to

protect us from factors beyond our control.

Fires that spread beyond a family unit are an example of

this and that is why fire safety standards are generally

lower in houses, despite the statistical evidence.

Thank you