“The Quiet Dilemma” SKILLS SHORTAGES, HIGHER EDUCATION & TODAY'S YOUTH Kenneth Gray Penn State...
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Transcript of “The Quiet Dilemma” SKILLS SHORTAGES, HIGHER EDUCATION & TODAY'S YOUTH Kenneth Gray Penn State...
“The Quiet Dilemma”
SKILLS SHORTAGES,
HIGHER EDUCATION
&
TODAY'S YOUTH
Kenneth GrayPenn State University
Indiana School Counselors Association
Fall Conference - 2001
The Technical Work Force
Professional
25%
Blue-Collar Tech. Workers
56%
Technicians19%
Other Ways to Win
A region that does not have a growing percentage of it non-professional workforcetrained beyond high school level will have increasing difficulty in supporting the competitiveness of high-value business.
Building a World-Class Technical Workforce, 1996
Other Ways to Win
The Quiet Dilemma
• University Graduation Rate = 52%
• University underemployment rate = 43%
• Baccalaureate Success rate = 1 in 4.
The Nation’s Quiet Dilemma
Underemployment of University Graduates
• 43% of grads in high school jobs two yrs later• 43% in jobs with no career potential 4 yrs later • 69% of arts and science majors in jobs with no
career potential 4 yrs later
Source: B&B 1st & 2nd follow-up, NCES 93/97
Employment Outlook for University Graduates
2006
Supply Demand Commensurate
Employment
Bachelors 1,268,000 734,300 57%
Recommending College in Sophomore Years for 1982 and 1992 High School Graduates
Other Ways to Win
Father Mother Guidance Teachers Counselor 1982 1992 1982 1992 1982 1992 1982 1992
Total 59.1 77.0 64.8 82.9 32.3 65.2 32.3 65.5
Test Quartile 40.4 59.9 47.6 64.7 26.1 59.4 28.2 57.2 Lowest
Second 49.7 71.7 55.6 79.3 26.1 61.1 26.5 60.7
Source: HS &B base year student survey (1980) and NELS:88 first follow-up student survey (1990), National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education
Effects of Skills on Productivity in Non Clerical-N
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Technical Clerical
Speed
Compute
Speed
Math
Reasoning
Science Verbal
Success inTraining
Productivity
Other Ways to Win
Occupational Groups Ranked by Earnings
Earnings
Managerial/Professional 1
Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 2
Technical Support 3
Service 4
Operative, Laborer 5
Farming, Fishing 6
Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical Abstracts U.S. 1994.
Occupational Groups Ranked by Earnings, Net Openings
Earning Openings
Managerial/Professional 1 Technical Support 1
Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 2 Operative, Laborer 2
Technical Support 3 Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 3
Service 4 Service 4
Operative, Laborer 5 Farming, Fishing 5
Farming, Fishing 6 Managerial/Professional 6
Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical Abstracts U.S. 1994.
A New Goal
Stop counting the number of teens who go to college and start counting how many are successful.
Every student should graduate with a postsecondary plan that has a high probability of success.
Where High School Seniors Expect to be Employed
Other Ways to Win
Occupations All Seniors Males Females
Professional 59.0 49.3 68.8
Manager 6.0 6.6 5.4
Craft/Precisionmanufacturing/ 2.8 5.3 0.3Specialized repair
Technicians 6.0 8.4 3.7
Source: U.S. Department of Education
All my life I’ve always wanted
to be somebody, but I see now
I should have been more specific.
Wagner, 1986
Other Ways to Win
Old Advice that is Now Bad Advice
• Postpone career choices as long as possible
You don’t want to close any doors.
• Don worry about career indecision you will decide that in college. (The difference between acceptance into college and acceptance into a major).
Career Development Basics
• Not our role to tell teens and parents what they should or should not do. It is our role to help them make the best decision they can.
• Remember the difference between jobs and careers.
• Remember fastest growing occupations may not mean the greatest opportunity.
Student Outcomes Goals of Career Development Programs
Help teens make the best career decision they can based on what they know “now” about themselves and the world of work. If this is a good decision, the next decision will be even better.
Student Outcomes Goals of Career Development Programs
By the tenth grade all students will have participated in activities designed to help them identify several career options.
In the eleventh and twelfth grades all students will participate in activities that allow them to verify these choices, using the results to develop postsecondary plans.
Four Messages for Students and Parents
1. Focus on postsecondary success, not college admissions.
2. Take career exploration seriously—career direction predicts success.
.3. If one goal is economic security, then don’t confuse education with occupational skills.
4. Consider two-year postsecondary technical education and apprenticeship training that can lead to a four-year college degree.
Other Ways to Win