The quality of age data from some recent Arab population censuses

First Conference of Al Khawarezmi in the Arab States

Ismail LubbadDoha, 6-8 December 2010

ContentsIntroductionCensus in ESCWA countries- An overviewObjectives, data source and methodologyResults

Age-sex reportingSex ratio with ageAge heaping - digit preference

Conclusion

Introduction

Importance of population census dataStock data for population estimates/projectionsData for sampling framesOnly source of data on small areas (localities)

Long history of census taking in the region

Quality of census data – rarely evaluatedImportance of age and sex data

Census taking in ESCWA countries

Table 1: Census taking in ESCWA countries

Sub -region Census Round 1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2014

Gulf Cooperation Council countries

6 7 7

Rest of ESCWA countries

6 6 3

Total ESCWA 12 13 10

Source: ESCWA calculation staff based on ESCWA counties information

Further information TF population census 2010: http://www.escwa.un.org/divisions/main.asp?division=sd

Objectives and Methodology

• Objectives: To examine the accuracy of age-sex reporting and the patterns of digit preference in censuses of population in (ESCWA) Arab countries.

• Source of data: Tables on age-sex reporting from the two most recent censuses - NSOs

• Methods: Descriptive analysis – common indices: UN age-sex accuracy index, Whipple-type indices and descriptive charts

Software: Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PAS)

ResultsTable 2: Age-sex non-reporting in population census in

ESCWA countries

Countries Census Round

1990Census

Round 2000Census Round

2010Bahrain 0.1% 0.00% …Egypt … … …Iraq 1.3% … …Jordan 0.11% 0.08% …Kuwait 0.30% 0.25%Oman 0.05% 0.04% …Palestine 0.05% …Qatar 0.03% … …Saudi Arabia … … …Sudan 0.1% 0.00% …Syrian Arab Republic … 0.35% …United Arab Emirates 0.00% … 0.09%Yemen … 0.06% …

Accuracy of age-sex reporting

• United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index measures sex-specific omission of persons in addition to age misreporting

• Based on 5 year age groups

Criteria of the U.N. INDEX

Under 20 → Accurate

20 to 40 → Inaccurate

Over 40 → Highly Inaccurate

UN age-sex Accuracy index Table 3: Results of UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index in

ESCWA countries (nationals only)

    Age Ratio Score Sex Ratio

Score

Sex

Ratio

 Age-Sex

Accuracy Index   Males Females    Bahrain (2001)   4.6 5.9 6.4 102.3 29.8Egypt (2006)   5.2 5.4 5.4 104.8 26.8Jordan (2004)   3.2 3.2 2.4 103.4 13.7Kuwait (2005)   3.3 2.2 3.5 97.7 16.1Oman (2003)   5.5 5.7 4.1 102.2 23.4Palestine(2007)   4.8 4.4 4.1 103.5 21.6KSA (2004)   4.6 4.3 4.6 100.6 22.6UAE (2005)   3.7 5.1 5 102.5 23.7Yemen (2004)   6.9 8.2 4.1 104 27.5

 Sex ratio

1sex ratio

2 UNI 1 UNI 2

%

changes

Bahrain 102.3 101.8 35.4 32.5 -8%

Egypt 104.8 104.8 38.4 37.4 -3%

Jordan 109 103 33.5 16.9 -50%

Kuwait 99.6 97.7 38.4 18.9 -51%

Oman 103.3 102.2 51.3 38.5 -25%

Palestine 103.5 103 25.8 18.4 -29%

KSA 102 100.6 49.8 27.9 -44%

Syria 104.7 105.4 16.5 16.6 1%

UAE 102.3 102.5 43.5 37.6 -14%

Yemen .. 104 .. 39.1 -29%

Iraq 105.8 99.4 36.7 29.7 -19%

UN age-sex Accuracy index

UN age-sex accuracy index (cont…)

Patterns of sex ratio with age

Jordan 2004

90

95

100

105

110

115

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Patterns of sex ratio with age

Oman 1993

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Age heaping and digit preference

• Data required: Population by sex and single year age

• Index of measurement: Whipple's index

Criteria f the Whipple's Index <105 highly accurate

105-109 fairly accurate

110-124 approximate

125-174 rough  

>175 very rough

Age heaping and digit preference• Table 4: Totals of Whipple and Myer's

Indexes in ESCWA countries

  Whipple Index Myer's Index

  Male Female Both sexesMale Female Both sexes

Bahrain 100 101 100 1.76 3.39 2.27

Palestine 104 106 105 2.11 3.50 2.79

Qatar 102 102 102 2.98 3.03 2.58

Syria 105 107 106 4.70 7.46 6.04

Yemen 249 271 260 43.46 51.26 47.19

Jordan 100 101 101 1.86 2.94 2.34

Kuwait 105 105 105 3.74 3.13 3.44

Population Pyramid in Yemen 2004

Population Pyramid in Syria 2004

Population Pyramid in Qatar 2004

Conclusion – Looking forward

• Preliminary results - PC 2010 will enrich the study and give a full picture;

• Improvement in age reporting in all the countries

• No problems in age heaping except for Yemen

• Age sex structure is considered inaccurate in a number of the ESCWA countries

Thank You

lubbad@un.org