THE PRESS AND THE REFENDUM CAMPAIGN

Key Findings

David Levy (Reuters Institute)

Billur Aslan (Reuters Institute)

Diego Bironzo (PRIME Research UK)

#EURefMedia

20th September 2016

1. Methods & Context

2. Research Questions a) How did the British press cover

the EU referendum story?

b) What were the main stories

and issues deployed on each side

of the argument?

3. Findings

4. Some Implications

METHODS AND CONTEXT

About the EU referendum study

Period analysed February 20, 2016 – June 21, 2016

Analysed days Tuesdays and Saturdays

Media sample9 national daily newspapers = 3,403 total articles,

of which 2,378 were focused on the referendum

Daily Express Daily Mail Daily Mirror

Daily Star Daily Telegraph Financial Times

The Guardian The Sun The Times

When Europe Became a Salient Issue?

5

KEY FINDINGS

Base: 2,378 articles

No position8%

Pro Remain27% Pro Leave

41%

Mixed, undecided

24%

EU Referendum | Overall degree of partisanship

-90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

Daily Mirror

Guardian

Financial Times

The Times

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

Sun

Daily Mail

Daily Express

Pro Leave Mixed, undecided Pro Remain No position

EU Referendum | Newspapers’ partisanship

The Times

Daily Telegraph

Sun

Daily Mirror

Daily Mail

Guardian

Daily Express

Financial Times

Daily Star

0k

200

k4

00

k6

00

k8

00

k1

00

0k

120

0k

140

0k

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Leave/Remain position index

100% pro Leave 50-50 100% pro Remain

Ave

rage

rea

ch

pe

r a

rtic

lePro Leave Pro Remain

EU Referendum | Newspapers’ position by reach and volume

UK politicians34%

Analysts/economists/ experts

11%

Members of the public

10%

Campaign representatives

14%Businesses

6%Foreign

Politicians5%

Lobbies & organisations

3%

Government/ government bodies

4%

Academics2%

Others 7%

Celebrities2%

Supranational organisations

2%

55% of the coverage used spokespeople’s quotes

EU Referendum | Spokespeople cited

Conservative64%

Labour17%

UKIP9%

SNP2%

LibDem2%

Others/unspecified6%

EU Referendum | UK politicians cited (34%)

Pro Leave campaigners

74%

Pro Remain campaigners

26%

EU Referendum | Campaign representatives cited (14%)

Arguments50%

Personalities & public figures taking sides

7%

Discussion about the vote and campaigns

37%

Referendum/ Brexit in

general/Other6%

Base: 19,158 messages

EU Referendum | Topics

Arguments50%

Personalities & public figures taking sides

7%

Discussion about the vote and campaigns

37%

Referendum/ Brexit in

general/Other6%

UK Sovereignty

25%

Economy / Business

45%

Migration / Mobility

16%

Terrorism / Security

4%

Regulations10%

Base: 19,158 messages

Base: 9,189 messages

EU Referendum | Topics

59%

57%

45%

43%

43%

43%

39%

30%

30%

21%

17%

29%

27%

25%

26%

25%

26%

32%

2%

3%

2%

4%

7%

4%

6%

10%

4%

6%

9%

11%

11%

10%

14%

11%

11%

9%

11%

14%

14%

14%

15%

12%

19%

23%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Financial Times

The Times

Guardian

Sun

Daily Telegraph

Daily Mirror

Daily Mail

Daily Star

Daily Express

Economy Sovereignty Security Regulations Migration

EU Referendum | Topics by newspaper

46%

9%

12%

33%

negative mixed positive factual

Tone of overall messages

-77%

-44%

-36%

-76%

7%

8%

11%

5%

6%

14%

26%

12%

10%

34%

27%

7%

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Pro Remain

Pro Leave

Pro Remain

Pro Leave

Future

Present

Tone of messages by position & time perspective

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Daily Mirror

The Guardian

Financial Times

The Times

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

The Sun

Daily Mail

Daily Express

Leave Mixed, undecided Remain No position

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

The Mirror / Daily Record

The Guardian

Financial Times

The Times

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

The Sun

Daily Mail

The Express

Leave Remain DK / DNV

Position of Newspapers Leave/Remain YouGov exit polls

Position of Newspapers Leave/Remain and Vote by Newspaper according to YouGov exit poll

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Daily Mirror

The Guardian

Financial Times

The Times

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

The Sun

Daily Mail

Daily Express

Leave Mixed, undecided Remain No position

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

The Mirror / Daily Record

The Guardian

Financial Times

The Times

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

The Sun

Daily Mail

The Express

Leave Remain DK / DNV

Position of Newspapers Leave/Remain YouGov exit polls

Position of Newspapers Leave/Remain and Vote by Newspaper according to YouGov exit poll

RECAP

• Coverage varies by title but overall Pro-Leave

• Largely a Blue on Blue campaign

• Leave campaigners cited far more than Remain

• Personalities/contest prevail over any issue

• Issue coverage polarised Leave/Remain

• Tone generally negative but more so for Remain

• Papers’ positions broadly in line with readers’

votes with 2 exceptions

IMPLICATIONS

• Who cares about papers anyway?– Declining readership but boost during

referendum

• Why might press coverage matter?– agenda setting

– wider media agenda

• Referendum coverage and the voters?

– Better at reinforcing views of decided voters

– Than informing the undecided

THE PRESS AND THE REFENDUM CAMPAIGN

Panel Discussion

Matthew Elliott (Vote Leave)

Lucy Thomas (Britain Stronger In Europe)

Jonathan Isaby (BrexitCentral)

Richard Corbett (Labour MEP)

Moderated by Dr Sara Hagemann (European Institute)

#EURefMedia

20th September 2016