The ppprospects for inter-urban travel demand
14
International Transport Forum 18 th International Transport Research S i Symposium Madrid 11-2009 The prospects for inter-urban travel demand Pr. Yves Crozet University of Lyon Institute of Transport Economics (LET) Institute of Transport Economics (LET) Laboratoire d’Économie des Transports 1
Transcript of The ppprospects for inter-urban travel demand
International Transport Forum
18th International Transport Research S iSymposium
Madrid 11-2009
The prospects for inter-urban p ptravel demand
Pr. Yves CrozetUniversity of LyonInstitute of Transport Economics (LET)
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 1
Institute of Transport Economics (LET)
Laboratoire d’Économie des Transports 1
Contents
• 1) The “iron law” of coupling
-Macroeconomic data about couplingbetween GDP and mobilitybetween GDP and mobility-Microeconomic basis: the key role of speed andvalue of time
• 2) Decoupling: are saturation and
value of time
mitigation enough ?
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 2
TOTAL MOBILITY(Data Points: 1960 - 1990; Curves: 1960 - 2050)( ; )
1000000pk
m North AmericaWestern Europe
Target Point Industrialized Regions
100000
ic V
olum
e, p Pacific OECD
Eastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union
Reforming Regions
10000
Cap
ita T
raffi
Latin AmericaDeveloping Regions
1000
Per
C Latin AmericaMiddle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa
South AsiaOther Pacific Asia
Centrally Planned Asia
100100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
GDP/cap, US$(1985)
Other Pacific Asia
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 3
Source: Schafer and Victor (2000); economic growth rates based on IPCC IS92a/e scenario
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 4
Price of air ticket in terms of minimum wage (nb of hours)(nb of hours)
coût d'un trajet Air France régulier évalué en heures de smic 1980 (classe éco)
coût d'un trajet Air France régulier évalué en heures de smic 2005 (classe éco, moyenne des prix basse et haute saison)h. de i
734
700
800
coût d'un trajet, sélectionné parmi les moins chers, évalué en heures de smic 2005smic
526
435500
600
259
372
300
400
140 12371 55 48
130 154 120
82 100 98 83 85 47 36 32
0
100
200
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 5
SINGAPOUR COLOMBO LIMA MEXICO NEW YORK TUNIS ATHENES
Extrait du travail de thèse "Optimisation Spatio-Temporelle des Déplacements Touristiques", v. Bagard, LET 2005
Time budget
Road speed
Valueof
AirSpeed
DistanceTime
R CarWalking
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 6
Revenue PlaneCar
Hypersonic
Some lessons about coupling
• The microeconomic « iron law » of coupling is related to microeconomic optimisation
• A higher revenue leads us to look forA higher revenue leads us to look for « variety » and then to seize the opportunity of a higher and cheaper speed to increase oura higher and cheaper speed to increase our average distance of travel
• Farer, faster and more often for a shorter stay !
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 7
2) Decoupling : between saturation and ) p gmitigation
–Where does the saturation come from ?
Mitigation: towards a climatic –Mitigation: towards a climatic tyranny?
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 8
Road traffic saturation in Europe
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 9
Global mobility (data points : 1960-2000)
Target point289,000km/year = 791/day(data points : 1960 2000)
100 000
, y yum
e , p
km
10 000
Traf
ficVo
luer
Cap
ita T
1 000
Pe
100100 000
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 10
100 1 000 10 000100 000
GDP / cap, US$ (2000) Source : Schafer and Victor (2000) : economic growth rates based on IP CC IS9 2a/e scenario
Time budget
Valueof
Airspeed
DistanceTime
RPlane
CarWalking
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 11
Revenu Car
GPKM par zone et par mode ‐ 2000‐2050 ‐ Transport de Passagers ‐ France
1 400
1 600
1 000
1 200
1 400
assage
rs ‐
TC inter‐région
TGV inter‐région
A iinter-région
600
800
M ‐ Tran
sports pa Avion
VP inter‐région
TC région
inter-région
région
200
400GPK
M
g
VP région
TC urbainurbain
0
2000
Pégase
2050
VP urbain
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 12
GPKM par zone et par mode ‐ 2000‐2050 ‐ Transport de Passagers ‐ France
1 400
1 600
1 000
1 200
1 400
passagers ‐
TC inter‐région
TGV inter‐région
Avioninter-région
600
800
KM ‐ Tran
sports p Avion
VP inter‐région
TC région
région
0
200
400GP
VP région
TC urbain
VP urbain
urbain
0
2000
Pégase
2050
Chrono
s 2050
Hestia
2050
VP urbain
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 13
ConclusionConclusion• The demand for speed is directly linked to
the GDP and to the individual welfare• The demand for speed is far from• The demand for speed is far from
saturation• Do we need new faster modes ?• Or do we need to limit the high speedOr do we need to limit the high speed
modes development in relation with their GHG emissions ?
Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports 14
GHG emissions ?
