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THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINABLE USE OF

BIOMASS FOR INDUSTRY

Dr Jim PhilpPolicy Analyst

Q: How many farmers are in the audience?

1000 2000 3000

Living off the land Living off the landA brief moment

in history

Oilconsumption

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• 10 out the 11 previous major recessions in the US have been preceded by an oil price spike1

• A 10% rise in oil prices removes 0.2-0.3% from global GDP growth2

• Can oil production be maintained ?

– By 2030, there may be 1.3 billion vehicles on the roads and by 2050 this could double again

– By century end plastics demand may could be 20-fold current demand

• Climate change mitigation requires deep GHG emissions cuts

• Deepwater Horizon costs3 may exceed a staggering $42 billion4

• For an average platform, each 30 metres of added depth increases the probability of a company-reported incident by 8.5%5

Energy security and the oil trap

1 Hamilton (2011). Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 15(S3), pp. 364-378.2 The Economist (2011). Print edition Special Report, September 24. 3 BP most recently estimated the quantifiable cost of the settlement at $9.2bn – already $1.4bn more than its original

estimate – but said the final charge would end up being significantly more than that4 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article3801365.ece5 Muehlenbachs et al. (2013). Energy Policy 55, 699–705.

Energy security

60

40

20

00

1900 1950 2000 2100

Billions of

barrels per year

80

100

120

Oil demand 2% growth

Expensivecrude oil

Prohibitivelyexpensivecrude oil

Inexpensivecrude oil

“Every two years we need to build a new Saudi Arabia” Peter Voser, former CEO Shell, 2013.

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Food, water, soil security – reconciling

agricultural and industrial needs of biomass

• Food production to increase 50-70% by 2050

• Models predict severe future droughts (e.g. 10 years in US Midwest)

• 70% of all fresh water use is for agriculture

• 1 in 4 may suffer water shortages by 2050

• Soil being destroyed at unprecedented rates

• RESULT: make more food

with less water on less soil

AND provide industrial biomasshttp://greenfieldgeography.wikispaces.com/Soil+and+change

• An internationally agreed framework on biomass sustainability is top priority

BUT

• No agreement on how to measure biomass sustainability (indicators, tools)

• No agreement on biomass potential

• Already there are international biomass disputes

Sustainable biomass nuts and bolts

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Star Wars or biofuels sustainability ?

Regionalinitiatives

National initiatives(governmental or private)

Internationalbodies’

initiatives

Multi-stakeholderinitiatives

Sustainable biofuels

EU Directive National GlobalCEN

FAO G8+5OECD IDB IEA IFC UNEP ISOCBD

RTFO ISCC RFS Sugarcanezoning

GBEP Task39 EquatorPrinciples

RSB PC 248NEN

NTA 8080

etha STAR

VSE

Green energy BEFSCI LCFSBNS Green Protocol

Nationalcommitment

CSBP2BSvs RBSA

Scorecard

Bonsucro RTRS

RSPO

Rainforest

Substa-CBD

IFC Principles

No agreement on indicators except GHG

emissions reductions, 34 countries 473 responses

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Minimization of GHG emissions

Optimization of energy balance

Protection of air quality

Minimization of deforestation

Conservation of HCV areas

Minimization of loss of biodiversity

Protection of soil quality and quantity

Protection of water quality and quantity

Effect of the end-use on the local environment

Sustaining yield of land

Minimization of (indirect) land-use changes

Minimization of indirect social and economic …

Priority for local food & construction product …

Priority for energy security

Social well-being (labour and human rights …

Minimization of child-labour

Land-use rights compliance

Local welfare (improvement local economy)

All countries

Most relevant

Very relevant

Relevant

Not relevant

3

1

2

van Dam, J. and M. Junginger (2011) Energy Policy 39, 4051–4066.

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US “Billion ton study”

Million dry tons

2030

2022

2017

2012

1400120010008006004002000

2030

2022

2017

2012

1400120010008006004002000

Forest land resourcescurrently used

Forest land biomass andwaste resource potential

Agricultural resourcescurrently used

Agricultural land biomass andwaste resource potential

Energy crops

(a) Baseline scenario (b) High-yield scenario

US DoE (2011), U.S. Billion-Ton Update: Biomass Supply for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry”, R.D. Perlack andB.J. Stokes (Leads), ORNL/TM-2011/224. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN. 227 pp.

• An excellent tool for orientation purposes in the initial phase of labelling and for comparing system alternatives (but only for certain aspects!)

• An inadequate instrument to compare (similar) products or to set limits based on LCA indicators

• Other instruments are cheaper and more reliable

• Tools for complete assessments needed

LCA is…

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Environmental impacts of bio-based

products

Weiss et al. (2012). Journal of Industrial Ecology 16, Supplement S1, S169–S181

Polytrimethylene terephthalate (27,5)

Polylactic acid (21,3)

Ethyl lactate (15,5)

Ethylene (6,1)

PHA (36,1)

Caprolactam (3,1)

Adipic acid (9,1)

Succinic acid (18,2)

Acrylic acid (3,1)

Acetic acid (18,1)

Allyl butyl ether (18,1)

1,5 Pentanediol (27,3)

Ethanol (14,2)

20-2-4-6-8500-50-100-150

Non-renewable primary energy use (GJ t-1) Climate change (t CO2 equivalents t-1)

Weiss et al. (2012) found that biobased materials save, on average, 55 +/- 34 MJ non-renewable energy and 3 +/- 1 kg CO2 per kg material

A proposal from The Netherlands: TFP

for biomass sustainability assessment

Total Factor Productivity index (TFP)

• Includes externalities (social and economic)

• Numerical harmonisation: aggregation into a common metric

𝑇𝐹𝑃 =𝐴𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑠 ("𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑠" − "𝑏𝑎𝑑𝑠")

𝐴𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑠

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Inputs

Capital inputs

Labour inputs(Child labour)

Energy

Materials

Business services

FEEDSTOCK PRODUCTION

TRANSPORT

CONVERSION

DISTRIBUTION

Good outputs

Palm oilPalm press fibre Palm kernel cake

Positive externalities

Emissions, waste, deforestation, toxicity, working conditions

Negative externalities

Bad outputs

Dual use: palm oil

Image courtesy of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

• Tenera palms result in 30% more oil per land area than dura palms

• Oil palm provides 45% of global edible oil

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Genomics identified the Shell gene and

its role in oil production

• This indicates a clear path toward more intensive use of already planted lands

• May lessen pressures to expand the land area devoted to oil palm onto endangered rainforest land

• Use of the Shell genetic marker for selection to distinguish the three fruit forms in the nursery long before they are field-planted

• Currently, it can take up to six years

Singh et al. (2013). Nature 500, 335-9

• Traditional lowland rice - when flooded the plant grows to get above the water, runs out of nutrients and dies

• Variety SUB1A - does not grow while flooded and starts growing again after the flooding has subsided

Dual use: rice

Immediately after flooding 3 months later

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• Right now hundreds of millions of tonnes of rice straw are burned in Asia

• Burning causes serious pollution and health problems

• It has no commercial value

• A feedstock for cellulosic biorefineries ?

Rice straw – waste or resource ?

• Attracting inward investment through

the bioeconomy strategy

• Verdezyne investing USD 48 million in

Malaysia to produce renewable chemicals

• First commercial bio-isobutanol plant

in Asia

• World’s first bio-methionine plant and

Asia's first thiochemical platform

• Integrated biorefinery project

• Biopharmaceutical manufacturing and

development facility

Malaysia and bio-based production

“While Europe talks, Asia builds”

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• Sustainable biomass conflicts will increase in future due to the increasing pressure on available fertile land

• Hundreds of disputes in Indonesia already

• The issues relate to:

– Human rights (land rights, worker’s rights, local economies)

– Environment (effects on soil, land, air, biodiversity and climate)

– Economics (international trade, market distortions, property rights and business-to-business conflicts)

An international biomass dispute

settlement facility ?

Replacing the oil barrel

Dicarboxylic acids• Adipic• Acetic• Lactic• Succinic• 3-Hydroxypropanoic

Aromatics ?

Petrol • Short-chain alkanes

Diesel• Mid-chain alkanes• Fatty acids

Diols • 1,3-PDO• 1,4-BDO

Thermoplastics • Polyethylene• Polypropylene• PET• PVC

Short-chain alkenes • Ethylene• Propylene• n-Butenes

Lower alcohols• Ethanol • Butanol

• Isobutene• Isoprene• Butadiene

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The industrialisation of photosynthesis

Alkanediesel

EngineeredCyanobacterium

Waste CO2

Alkane diesel

Growth

Secretion

Water

EsterifyHarvest Extract

Non-potable water

Algae

CO2

Lipid bodies

(a) Direct, continuous process for renewable diesel production

(b) Algal biomass diesel production

Robertson et al. (2011). Photosynthesis Research 107, 269–277.

Triglyceride Biodiesel esters

Killer combinations

Synthetic biology Cellulose (terrestrial) Chitin (marine)

Wood chemistry Waste gases Coal chemistry

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Integrated biorefinery logistics ?

Biomass conversion and/or ethanol / biodiesel plant

Neighbouring farms

Farm cooperative

MSW

CoastalIntegrated Biorefinery• Imported biomass• Agriculture• Forestry• MSW• Waste gas• Algae ?

Urban

Rural

Logging/forestresidues

“Although bioeconomy might contribute substantially to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, it is not yet integrated in the broader policy fields and discussions regarding sustainable growth, climate protection or preservation of eco-systems. The Global Bioeconomy Summit aims at identifying challenges and opportunities at stake”

Policy alignment: Global Bioeconomy

Summit, 2015, Berlin, November 25-26

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Thank you for your time

james.philp@oecd.org