The Potential Market for an Adventist TV...

Office of Information and ResearchReport 19

The Potential Marketfor an

Adventist TV Channel

Seventh-day Adventist ChurchNorth American Division of the General Conference

12501 Old Columbia Pike, Silver Spring, Maryland 20904

Monte Sahlin, DirectorOffice of Information and ResearchNorth American Division

Jose Chavanz-Q., Research DirectorChurch Support ServicesPacific Union Conference

Research Consultants

Harold LeeSecretaryColumbia Union Conference

Carole KilcherAssociate Professor of CommunicationsAndrews University

Roger DudleyDirector, Institute of Church MinistryAndrews University

Paul RichardsonDirectorCenter for Creative Ministry

(c) 1997, North American DivisionThis is a confidential report and may not be copied without written permission from thedirector of the Office of Information and Research, North American Division of theSeventh-day Adventist Church.

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to explore the potential market for an Adventist televisionchannel utilizing the new, digital television services available via direct, commercialsatellite transmission and the small, 18-inch dish technology. The funding of anAdventist television channel would depend largely upon finding a sufficient number ofchurch-related households willing to pay for a subscription.

The information in this report is based on 100 telephone interviews completed duringMay, 1997. The names and telephone numbers were selected with the use of a randomnumber generator program from the must current directories supplied by the 58 localconferences in the North American Division. Although the purpose of these directories isto list local church officers and departmental leaders, previous surveys haveconsistently demonstrated that a third to a half of the individuals are no longer servingor never did agree to undertake a leadership responsibility. With a total of more than45,000 listings, these directories constitute a significant cross-section of the activemembers of the Seventh-day Adventist Church in North America.

All sample surveys are subject to sampling error. At the 95th percentile of reliability, theerror factor for these data is between 7 and 12 percentage points (plus or minus).Additional information regarding the recommended allowances for sampling error isgiven in the technical appendix.

Jose Chavanz, the research director for the Church Support Services of the PacificUnion Conference, supervised the data collection and processing for this study. I amresponsible for the display and interpretation of the information in this report.

Monte SahlinJune, 1997

Market for an Adventist TV Channel, page 2

One in twenty-five Adventisthouseholds currently subscribe to"Direct TV" or one of the othercommercial providers of digital televisionservice utilizing the 18-inch satellitedish. Three times as many (13%) havenever heard of this relatively newtechnology.

The vast majority of Adventistmembers, more than four out of five,have heard of this type of service, but

are not currently users of thetechnology. Respondents over 52 yearsof age are somewhat more likely to besubscribers, perhaps becausehouseholds without children and in peakearning years are most able to affordthe cost of the service.

Four percent of the approximately300,000 Adventist households in NorthAmerica represents a total of about12,000 current subscribers.


Adventist households aresignificantly less likely to subscribe tocable television than are households ingeneral. This might be evidence thatAdventists would be less likely topurchase a subscription televisionchannel even if it is marketed as anAdventist channel.

Sources: Statistical Abstract ofthe United States, 1996 Edition, Table876; Special Consumer Survey Report(November, 1996), The ConferenceBoard; The Daily, October 23, 1996,Statistics Canada.


About one in five churchmembers are current viewers of one ofthe denomination's television ministries.Members over 52 years of age aresignificantly more likely to report thatthey have viewed one of these telecastswithin the previous week.

A recent Gallup Poll indicates thatin the United States, currently 14% ofAmericans report that they consume

religious television or radioprogramming. This has declined inrecent years from a high of 20%. Thesepercentages are not directly comparablewith the question asked in this surveybecause they include those who haveviewed or listened at any during the lastyear.

Source: National data fromResearch Alert, Volume 15, Number 2.


Only one in eight NAD membershas ever viewed the Three AngelsBroadcasting Network (3ABN) in theirhome. Members over 52 years of ageare more than three times as likely to beviewers as are those who are younger.

This question does not attempt tomeasure the portion of the membership

who may have viewed 3ABN at theirchurch or at an exhibit at camp meetingor in some other setting outside theirhome. It is also important to note thatthis question is not comparable with thequestion reported on the previous pagerelative to the denomination's televisionministries.


This basic and important questionwas asked twice with a somewhatdifferent wording each time. Thepurpose of the double question was tomeasure the degree to whichinformation about the concept wouldincrease or decrease the attitude towardit and the impact of different wordings.

Question 3 came after the firsttwo questions that asked about therespondent's awareness of small-dish,digital television services such as "DirectTV." It asked, "If a company of this typeoffered to provide an Adventist channel... do you think the denomination shouldproduce such a channel?"

Question 6 came after questionsexploring packaging and pricing optionsfor an Adventist channel. It asked,"Would you recommend to the leadersof the denomination that they go aheadand seek to develop an Adventistchannel?"

Responses are consistentlystrong. About three out of four NADmembers favor the development of anAdventist channel by the denomination.Additional information reduces thenegative responses and increases thepositive responses.


Respondents were asked to thinkabout a number of different "bundles" ofchannels because the companies thatprovide direct satellite television serviceto 18-inch dishes in homes neverprovide a single channel by itself. Asignificant consideration in anymarketing strategy to generate sufficientincome to sustain an Adventist channelwill be its packaging with additionalchannels for the total subscriptionoffering.

The least popular offer would bea package that includes only Adventistor religious channels. Very few NADmembers are interested in consuming

only religious television.The most popular offer would be

a package that includes a broad rangeof programming. This might take theform of a combination of news, PublicBroadcasting Service (PBS), religiousand acceptable entertainmentprogramming such as the FamilyChannel. Or, it might simply meanpackaging the Adventist channel withthe regular service provided by thecommercial delivery system.

Almost as popular would be apackage that includes news, weather,nature, history and PBS programmingalong with the Adventist channel.


Significantly fewer respondentsare clearly prepared to pay for anAdventist channel than the percentagewho believe it should be developed. Halfhave no idea what they would be willingto spend from their family budgets forthis service. Those over 52 years of ageand women are more likely to be unsureof what they can pay.

The range of responses amongthose who stated a price they findacceptable runs from $4 a month up to

$60 a month. The average is $21.42 amonth. This price was understood to bethe cost for the bundle of programmingthat they stated a preference for in theprevious question.

The 38% of the respondents whocurrently subscribe to cable television intheir homes were asked what they arecurrently paying for that service. Theresponses range from $3 to $70 permonth, and the average is $28.78 permonth.


Technical Appendix

In interpreting survey results, it should be borne in mind that all sample surveysare subject to sampling error. That is, the extent to which the results may differ fromwhat would be obtained if the whole population had been interviewed. The size of suchsampling errors depends on the number of interviews or questionnaires.

The following tables may be used in estimating the sampling error of anypercentage in this report. The computed allowances have taken into account the effectof the sample design upon sampling error. They may be interpreted as indicating therange (plus or minus the figure shown) within which the results of repeated samplings inthe same time period could be expected to vary, 95 percent of the time, assuming thesame sampling procedures, the same interviewers and/or the same questionnaire.

Table A shows how much allowance should be made for the sampling error ofany percentage reported. This table would be used in the following manner: If areported percentage is 33 for a groups includes 1,250 respondents ... then, go to row"percentages near 30" in the table and go across to the column headed "1250." Thenumber at this point is 3, which means that the 33 percent obtained in the sample issubject to a sampling error of plus or minus 3 points. This means that very probably (95chances out of 100) the true figure would be somewhere between 30 and 36, with themost likely figure the 33 obtained in the survey.

In comparing survey results in two sub-samples, for example, men and women,the question arises as to how large a difference between them must be before one canbe reasonably sure that it reflects a real difference. Table B and Table C indicate thenumber of points which must be allowed for in such comparisons to make them"statistically significant." Table C is for percentages near 20 or 80. Table B is forpercentages near 50. For percentages in between, the factor to be allowed for isbetween those shown on the two tables.

Here is how these tables are used: If 50% of men respond a certain way and40% of women respond that way also, for a difference of 10 percentage points betweenthem, can we say that the 10 point difference reflects a real difference between the twogroups on that question? Let's say the sample contains about 750 of each gender.

Since the percentages are near 50, consult Table B. Since the total sample is1500, look for the number in the column headed "1500." Since the two sub-samples are750 persons each, look for the row designated "750." Where the row and columnintersect, you will find the number 5. This means that the difference between the twogroups must be greater than 5 percentage points to be "statistically significant." In otherwords, we can conclude with considerable confidence that a real difference exists in theanswers of men and women to this question.


Table ARecommended Allowance for Sampling Error

Size of Sample .... 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 100

Percentages near 10 2 2 2 3 3 5 7









Table BRecommended Allowance for Sampling Error of the Difference

In Percentage Points for Percentages near 50 Size of Sample .... 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 100

1500 4

1250 5 5

1000 5 5 5

750 6 6 6 6

500 6 6 7 7 8

250 8 8 9 9 9 11

100 13 13 13 13 13 14 17


Table CRecommended Allowance for Sampling Error of the Difference

In Percentage PointsFor Percentages near 20 or Percentages near 80

Size of Sample .... 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 100

1500 4

1250 4 4

1000 4 4 4

750 4 4 5 5

500 5 5 5 6 6

250 7 7 7 7 8 9

100 10 10 10 10 11 12 14

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