The potential for Clean Development Mechanism in...
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TITLE Facilitating the Kyoto Protocol Objectives by Clean Development Mechanism in Small Island Developing States – CDMSIDS Project The potential for Clean Development Mechanism in electricity production Neven Duic Neven Duic Luís Manuel Alves Luís Manuel Alves Anildo Anildo Costa Costa Maria da Graça Carvalho Maria da Graça Carvalho Instituto Instituto Superior Superior Técnico Técnico , Technical University of Lisbon , Technical University of Lisbon Dept. Mechanical Engineering Dept. Mechanical Engineering Av. Av. Rovisco Pais Rovisco Pais , 1049 , 1049 - - 001 Lisbon, PORTUGAL 001 Lisbon, PORTUGAL
Transcript of The potential for Clean Development Mechanism in...
TITLEFacilitating the Kyoto Protocol Objectives by Clean Development Mechanism in Small Island Developing States – CDMSIDS Project
The potential for Clean Development Mechanism in electricity production
Neven DuicNeven DuicLuís Manuel AlvesLuís Manuel Alves
AnildoAnildo CostaCostaMaria da Graça CarvalhoMaria da Graça Carvalho
InstitutoInstituto SuperiorSuperior TécnicoTécnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Technical University of LisbonDept. Mechanical EngineeringDept. Mechanical Engineering
Av. Av. Rovisco PaisRovisco Pais, 1049, 1049--001 Lisbon, PORTUGAL001 Lisbon, PORTUGAL
OBJECTIVES
To show the potential for CDM in electricity generation sector in Cape VerdeTo show the potential for clean technologies transfer to Cape Verde due to CDM
CONTENT
IntroductionPopulation scenarium descriptionEconomic scenaria – 3 scenariaElectricity demand scenariumElectrification scenariaElectricity supply scenaria – 3 scenariaClean Development Mechanism scenaria – 3 scenariaConclusions
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
Each islands naturally a separate power systemThe need to model each island separatelyThe problems with connecting islands by power cables – not envisaged by this studyElectrification Connection of independent grids on each island
INTRODUCTION
For each island 27 scenaria:Demographic scenarium 2000-20303 Economic scenaria 2000-2030
Business as usualCape Verde as tourist paradiseCape Verde still as frontier
Electricity demand scenaria 2000-2030 (one for each economic scenarium)3 Electricity supply scenaria 2000-2030 for each demandscenarium3 CDM scenaria 2000-2030 for each supply scenarium
POPULATION
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Popu
latio
n
MaioBravaFogoS. NicolauBoavistaSalS. AntãoSantiagoS. Vicente
Growth centers:SantiagoSal BoavistaSão Vicente
ECONOMY
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
GDP,
198
0 =
100 Tourist paradise
Business as usualFrontier
Three scenarios:Business as usualTourist paradise scenarioFrontier scenario (no Praia airport,slow electrification,little infrastructure)
TOURISM
0.0
0.51.0
1.52.0
2.53.0
3.5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
year
Tour
ist
arriva
ls,
mill
ions Tourist paradise
Business as usualFrontier
Tourist paradiseSal & Boavistaintensive tourismSanto Antão, Santiago, SãoVincente, Maio,importance of tourismSpill over effect in other sectors
ECONOMY - BAU
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
GDP,
Cap
e Ve
rde
1980
= 1
00 MaioBravaFogoS. NicolauBoavistaSalS. AntãoSantiagoS. Vicente
Business as usual scenarium, regional distribution of GDP
ECONOMY - PARADISE
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
GDP,
Cap
e Ve
rde
1980
= 1
00 MaioBravaFogoS. NicolauBoavistaSalS. AntãoSantiagoS. Vicente
Tourist paradise scenarium, regional distribution of GDP
ECONOMY - FRONTIER
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
GDP,
Cap
e Ve
rde
1980
= 1
00
Frontier scenarium, regional distribution of GDP
ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Tourist sectorElectrification rateSecurity of supply
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Elec
tricity
prod
uction
, GW
h
Tourist paradiseBusiness as usualFrontier
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
icity,
kW
h/ca
p.
Tourist paradiseBusiness as usualFrontier
0
500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Elec
tr
ELECTRICITY DEMAND - BAU
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year
GWh
MaioBravaFogoSão NicolauBoavistaSalSanto AntãoSantiagoSão Vicente
Business as usual scenarium, regional distribution of electricity demand
ELECTRICITY DEMAND -PARADISE
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year
GWh
MaioBravaFogoSão NicolauBoavistaSalSanto AntãoSantiagoSão Vicente
Tourist paradise scenarium, regional distribution of electricity demand
ELECTRICITY DEMAND -FRONTIER
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year
GWh
MaioBravaFogoSão NicolauBoavistaSalSanto AntãoSantiagoSão Vicente
Frontier scenarium, regional distribution of electricity demand
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
For each island and for each economic/electricity demand scenaria
Electricity supply scenaria:1. Baseline – Diesel + wind installed and to be installed in
20022. 30% wind electricity for all islands3. Combined cycle + 30% wind – scenario 2 + 10 MW
CC base power units for systems where peak is > 35 MW
ELECTRIFICATION 2000-2030
2001-2005Santiago – Santa Catarina and Santa Cruz linked to main network (Praia)Santo Antão – Porto Novo linked to main network(Ribeira Grande)São Nicolau – Tarrafal linked to main network (R. Brava)
2006-2010Santiago – Calheta and Tarrafal linked to main network(Praia)Fogo – São Felipe linked to main network (Mosteiros)
ELECTRIFICATION 2000-2030
Santiago
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030Year
Popu
latio
n co
nnec
ted
Santiago, totalPraiaS. DomingosS. CatarinaSanta CruzCalhetaTarrafal
WIND TURBINES INSTALLED
0
5
10
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0
1
2
3
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0
5
10
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0
1
2
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
20 20 20 20kW
FrontierBAUParadise
05
10152025
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0
20406080
100
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0
5
10
15
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
COMBINED CYCLE INSTALLED20 20 20 20
kW
FrontierBAUParadise
05
10152025
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0102030405060
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
0
5
10
15
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
05
101520
25
2000 2010 2020 2030
MW
CDM PROJECTS 2005-2012
Business as usual scenarium2005 – 13500 kW wind turbines
Santiago 12x600 kW + São Vicente 3x600 kW + Santo Antão 3x300 kW + Sal 3x600 kW + Boavista 2x300 kW + São Nicolau 300kW + Fogo 3x300 kW
2008 – 10800 kW wind turbines Santiago 12x600 kW + São Vicente 2x600 kW + Santo Antão 300kW + Sal 2x600 kW + Boavista 2x300 kW + Fogo 300 kW
2010 – 10000 kW Combined cycle, Santiago
2011 – 13800 kW wind turbines Santiago 15x600 kW + São Vicente 3x600 kW + Santo Antão 300kW + Sal 2x600 kW + Boavista 2x300 kW + Fogo 300 kW + Brava 300 kW + Maio 300 kW
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - BAU
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2010 2020 2030
year
prod
uctio
n, G
Wh Wind
Diesel + steam
1000
1200
Wh Wind
Diesel + steam
Baseline
30% wind
Combined cycle30% wind
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2010 2020 2030
year
prod
uctio
n, G
1000
1200
Wh Wind
Diesel + steamCombined Cycle
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2010 2020 2030
year
prod
uctio
n, G
Business as usual economic scenarium
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY -PARADISE
Baseline
30% wind
Combined cycle30% wind
Tourist paradise economic scenarium
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h WindDiesel + steam
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel + steam
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel + steamCombined Cycle
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY -FRONTIER
Baseline
30% wind
Combined cycle30% wind
Frontier economic scenarium
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel + steam
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel + steam
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel + steamCombined Cycle
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY –REGIONAL
YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesBaseline
Frontier
NoNoNoNoNoNoNo2015NoCC+30%wind
YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes30%wind
NoNoNoNoNo2020*2026*2010*2018*CC+30%wind
Yes *Yes *Yes *Yes *Yes *YesYesYesYes30%wind
YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesBaseline
Tourist paradise
NoNoNoNoNoNoNo2010NoCC+30%wind
YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes30%wind
YesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYesBaseline
BAU
MABRFOSNBVSASOSTSVElectricity supply sceanria
Economicscenaria
*shown
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY –REGIONAL
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDieselCombined cycle
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDieselCombined cycle
020406080
100120140160180200
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDieselCombined cycle
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDieselCombined cycle
Santiago
São Vicente
Santo AntãoSal
010
203040
5060708090
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel
05
10
1520
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel
01020
3040
5060
708090
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel 0
5
10
15
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
h
WindDiesel
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY –REGIONAL
Boavista
São Nicolau
Fogo
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2010 2020 2030year
prod
uction
, GW
hWindDiesel Maio
Brava
CDM SCENARIA
CDM potentialfor 2 electricity supply scenaria and 3 CDMcertificate prices:
High –25$/tCO2Medium –15$/tCO2Low –5$/tCO2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2010 2020 203year
CD
M v
alue
, MU
SD
high, CC + 30% windhigh, 30% windmedium, CC + 30% windmedium, 30% windlow, CC + 30% windlow, 30% wind
Business as usual economic scenarium
CDM VALUE
Wind in all islandsCombined cycle only inSantiago
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
2000 2010 2020 2030year
CD
M v
alue
, MU
SD
Santiago, CCMaioBravaFogoSão NicolauBoavistaSalSanto AntãoSantiago, windSão Vicente
Business as usual economic scenariumMedium CDM price scenarium – 15$/tCO2
CDM VALUE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Frontier BAU Paradise Frontier BAU Paradise Frontier BAU Paradise
Economic scenario
CD
M v
alue
, MU
SD, 2
008-
2012
30% windCC + 30% wind
low CDM value, 5$/tCO2 medium CDM value, 15$/tCO2
high CDM value, 25$/tCO2
2008-2012 – The First budget period of the Kyoto Protocol
CDM VALUE
CDM – significant influence on electricity costCDM for wind, up to 25% of the totalprice of kWh
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
low medium highCDM credit price
CD
M c
redi
t, $c
/kW
h wind CC
CONCLUSIONS
Wind is good for islandsSecurity of supplyCompetitive with Diesel
CDM for islandsBig financial potentialHelps clean energy technology transfer
