The Potential and Challenge of a Hydrogen-Electric Economy · Great Plains Institute Working on...

Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders

West Central CERTS MeetingNovember 22, 2005

Rolf NordstromRolf NordstromRolf NordstromRolf NordstromUpper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative

Great Plains Institute, MinneapolisGreat Plains Institute, MinneapolisGreat Plains Institute, MinneapolisGreat Plains Institute, Minneapolis

The Potential and Challenge of a Hydrogen-Electric Economy


Great Plains InstituteWorking on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders


Upper Midwest Hydrogen InitiativeUpper Midwest Hydrogen InitiativeUpper Midwest Hydrogen InitiativeUpper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative

Working on Tomorrow’s Solutions with Today’s Leaders

UMHI is an affiliate of the UMHI is an affiliate of the UMHI is an affiliate of the UMHI is an affiliate of the

National Hydrogen AssociationNational Hydrogen AssociationNational Hydrogen AssociationNational Hydrogen Association


What is the Upper Midwest H2 Initiative?

� Regional, public-private hydrogen and fuel cell partnership

� Founded in 2003

� Dedicated to accelerating commercialization of hydrogen and fuel cells.

Serving Manitoba, the Dakotas, Minnesota Iowa and WisconsinA public-private venture of the nonprofit Great Plains Institute

UMHI Region


Current Membership

1. 3M 2. Broin Companies3. Distributed Generation

Solutions, Inc.4. Donaldson Company5. Energy and Environmental

Research Center, UND6. Energy Center of Wisconsin7. Entegris – Fuel Cells8. ePower Synergies, Inc.9. Initiative on Renewable

Energy & the Environment, U of M

10.Kraus Global, Inc.11.Minnesota Corn Growers

Association12.Moorhead Public Service (a

municipal utility)13.Manitoba Energy Development

Initiative14.North Dakota Wind expert15.Padilla Speer Beardsley16.R4 Energy17.South Dakota State University18.Xcel Energy


OutlineOutlineOutlineOutline

1. Primer on hydrogen and fuel cells

2. Commercialization timeline

3. Activity in other states and nations

4. Implications for MN Ford prototype fuel cell vehicle

[ ]

Hydrogen Has Been Called the Perfect FuelHydrogen Has Been Called the Perfect Fuel

��Most abundant elementMost abundant element

��Found in water, fossil fuels, all Found in water, fossil fuels, all

organic matter organic matter

��Colorless, odorless and nonColorless, odorless and non--

toxic.toxic.

��Burns cleanBurns clean

��Produces only heat, electricity Produces only heat, electricity

and water vapor when used in and water vapor when used in

fuel cellsfuel cells

[ ]

Energy “Currencies” Allow Energy Transactions To Take PlaceEnergy “Currencies” Allow Energy Transactions To Take Place

��Hydrogen is an energy Hydrogen is an energy

CARRIER not an energy CARRIER not an energy

sourcesource

�Electricity transition began 100 years ago

�Hydrogen is the “2nd

Currency”

�Electricity and hydrogen are interchangeable

[ ]

Why all the talk about hydrogen?Why all the talk about hydrogen?

� ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP

� ENERGY SECURITY

� ECONOMIC PROSPERITY


Why Hydrogen?

• Domestic and inexhaustible

• Pollution-free if produced/w renewable and climate-friendly methods.

• Huge potential “peace dividend”

• “Hydrogen could replace all gasoline and eliminate almost all CO2

emissions”

— National Research Council, 2004

Oil ConsumptionConsumptionConsumptionConsumption Increasing:

-CAFE increases include light trucks

-Beyond 2020, EIA data extrapolated

Million barrels per day

ProjectedActual

Domestic Production

NHTSA Proposal

20% CAFE Increase

(=28.8 mpg)Transportation

Oil Use 40% CAFE Increase

(=33.6 mpg)

60% CAFE Increase

(=38.4 mpg)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Plus ANWR(Ref. EIA SR/O&G/2000-02,

and USGS Report 98-34)

ProjectedActual

Domestic Production

Transportation Oil Use


End of Cheap Oil

"The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending,"

— Dave O'Reilly, CEO ChevronTexaco, 2005


Inexhaustible Energy Cycle

H2 burned orused in fuel cell

PowerHeat

Water vapor

H2 from biomassor water


Hydrogen Already Here . . .Sort of

• U.S. produces 9 million tons/year

• 95% from

natural gas

• 8% of U.S. natural gas goes for H2

• Globally, that number is 50 million tons/year

• Global production is growing 6-7% per year


How is hydrogen used now?

• 95% used on-site for oil refining or fertilizer production

• Remaining 5% sold for range of minor uses

• Space program

How Hydrogen is Used Now

Oil refining

or fertilizer

production

95%

Other uses

5%

Oil refining orfertilizer production

Other uses


What are the potential uses of hydrogen?

It could provide electricity, heat and transportation fuel throughout the economy

PortableStationary

Vehicles


How Safe is Hydrogen?

• NASA scientist finds hydrogen NOT to blame for Hindenburg.

• Clear flame can’t sear you at a distance

• No smoke.

• Hard to make explode; can’t explode in free air; burns first.

Coated skin ignited, not H2


How Safe is Hydrogen?

• Fuel leak simulation

– hydrogen on left

– gasoline on right

– equivalent energy

release

3 seconds

1 minute

H2 Gasoline

From: M.R. Swain, Fuel Leak Simulation, University of Miami,


Hydrogen is safe;sometimes safer

• Rises and disperses quickly

• No relation to hydrogen bombs

• Ford study concluded it’s as safe as other fuels; safer in many situations.

NREL picture of H2 flame


Sources of Hydrogen

• Non-Renewable:

• Natural gas

• Coal

• Gasoline

• Renewable:

• Biomass

– Ethanol, methane, glycerol

– Gasification

• Water via electrolysis

Does it take more energy than it yields?

70-75% *Hydrogen from water electrolysis

72-85% *

75-80%

Hydrogen from natural gas (SMR)

Hydrogen from ethanol

29–35%Electricity from coal

73-91%Gasoline from oil(wellhead to pump)

EfficiencyEnergy Production

* Minus 15% to reflect lower heating value & allow fair comparison

End-use efficiency is worth it

33%US electric grid

15-20%Internal combustion engine

80–90%Pure hydrogen FC –electricity + hot water use

40-65%Pure hydrogen FC –electricity only

EfficiencyPower system

[ ]

Long Term Vision: Hydrogen From Renewable EnergyLong Term Vision: Hydrogen From Renewable Energy

$6 - 7

$2 - 3

$9 - 10

$6.18$7.00

$3.60

$2.25$1.75 $2.10 $1.75

0

2

4

6

8

10

Wind Solar Biomass Coal* Natural Gas**

NRC 2004 Price Data – Today vs. Potential

( Units = $US/per kg )

Renewable Energy

Today Potential

65%

80%

Electrolyzer Eff.

* Centralized with sequestration**Centralized


What are fuel cells?

• Electrolysis in reverse

• Runs like a battery, but doesn’t run down as long as it’s supplied with fuel

• Highly efficient

• No emissions other than water and heat


Where did fuel cells come from?

• First one in 1839 -Sir William Grove

• Serious interest in U.S. in 1960s

• Provide electricity & water for space shuttle.

Fuel Cell StackFuel Cell Stack

Single Single

Fuel Fuel

Cell Cell

PEM Fuel Cells Primer

Fuel Cells produce electricity through the electrochemical oxidation of hydrogen.

Source – US Fuel Cell Council


Benefits of Fuel Cells?

• Zero harmful emissions

• 2 X efficiency of traditional engines

• Wide range of applications

• Quiet “good neighbor”

• Can be scaled to many sizes

• No moving parts

• High quality power

• Mini power plants

[ ]

Where Are We With Fuel Cells Today?Where Are We With Fuel Cells Today?

Cost:

� Today, many fuel cells cost about $3,000/kW

� Stationary power generation requires $800/kW

� Transportation requires $50/kW to compete with the gasoline ICE

Durability:

� Vehicles need 5,000 hr lifetime

� Primary stationary power needs 50,000 hr (Emergency power: only 5,000 hr)

� Today, the “head of the pack”is about halfway to bothdurability targets


North American fuel cell market potential

By 2007:

$2.1 billion

By 2010:

$14.5 billion

(Price Waterhouse-Coopers)


When might youbuy a fuel cell vehicle?

• Every major automaker racing to

be first; GM says by 2010

• Others think longer or never

• Honda, Toyota leasing small

numbers already

• First vehicles are fleets


Do any hydrogen vehicles exist today?

• Every major automaker has prototypes

• 100s of cars on the road

• More than 30 buses

• 35 Priuses being converted to run on hydrogen

• 1st fuel cell family: Jon and Sandy Spallino of Redondo Beach, California

GM’s Sequel Fuel Cell Vehicle

300 mile range


What are other states are doing?

• At least 18 states have programs of some kind

–Financial assistance for pilots

–Tax incentives

–Renewable Portfolio Standards

Transitional Phases

I. Technology Development Phase

II. Initial Market Penetration Phase

III. Infrastructure Investment Phase

IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase

Strong Government

R&D Role

Strong Industry

Commercialization Role

2000

20

20

2010

20

30

2040

PhaseI

PhaseII

PhaseIII

PhaseIV

RD&D I

Transition to the Marketplace

Commercialization Decision

II

Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure III

Realization of the Hydrogen Economy IV

Fuel cell vehicles in the showroom and hydrogen at filling stations by 2020

How Soon?


Efforts around the World

• Europe $2.8 billion (2015)

• Canada $256 million

• U.S. $1.7 billion (5 yrs)

• Japan Tripled since ‘95

• Iceland Switch to H2 by 2030

• International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE) launched in Nov. 2004


Regional Strengths in Hydrogen Production


“Early adopter”niche markets

• Agricultural vehicles

• Airport vehicles

• Delivery vehicles (e.g., UPS, FedEx, U.S. Postal Service)

• Fork lifts

• Large private fleets

• Municipal electric utilities

• Ice resurfacing equipment

• Small truck fleets

• Government fleets

• Transit buses and shuttles

• University fleets

• Vehicles with unregulated air emissions

WWW.ePowerSynergies.com

10

100

1000

10000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fuel Cell Power Pack Cost

Source: Goepel McDermid, Energy Technology

Perspectives,2000

Modified 5/2002

Un

it P

rod

uct

Co

st

US

$/k

W

Price-insensitive industrial applications 5000

Portable power 3500

50

Transportation auxiliary power

Cars

Distributed industrial/commercial power

Distributed residential power500

200 Utility Vehicle

PDV

Ice Refinishers

Trucks & Buses

Compact Tractor

Other off-road vehicles

Lawn Tractor

Commercial Mower

Military

Lift trucks

Hydrogenics purchase price history/forecast

Fuel Cell “Ice Bear”


Developing Hydrogen Infrastructure

• “. . .the committee strongly suggests that the [hydrogen] transition be progressed with small, on-site hydrogen production systems at the filling station. . .”

National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering, 2004


The “Northern H”:Flexible-Fuel H2 Highway Network

• 10-year effort to establish transitional H2 infrastructure

• Supports nearby on- or off-road fleet vehicles

• Tests variety of hydrogen production options

• Enables launch of H2-powered vehicles & builds demand

• Eventually links major cities and other Hydrogen Highway efforts

• Benefits all 6 UMHI jurisdictions

Northern H network


Flexible-fuel Hydrogen Stations

As transition infrastructure, the Northern H stations could offer:– Gasoline

– E-85

– Bio-diesel

– Hydrogen

– Stationary fuel cell

Existing E-85 station

5000 PSI H2 station


Northern H Already Enjoys Strong Support

• Supported by 8 U.S. Senators & key House member

• Endorsed by EPRI

(Electric Power Research Inst.)

• In line with Nat’l. Research Council’s recommendations to Congress

Northern H network


What Customers will the Northern H Serve?

1. Conventional and hybrid ICE vehicles.

2. Flexible-fuel vehicles

3. Vehicles running on diesel and biodiesel

4. Dedicated H2 fleets.


Any hydrogen fueling stations now?

• California has 16 stations

• 1 public station in Washington DC

• 87 stations exist worldwide

• 170 new stations planned (CA, DC, FL, NV, NY)

• CA FL, IL, NY, Canada, Japan and Norway have “H2 highway” projects

H2 Highway in BC


Hybrid ICE-Electric Hydrogen Bus

Courtesy of UMHI Manitoba Energy Development Initiative

What is the HHICE Bus?

Hydrogen Gas Storage Tanks

Driver Position

Ultracapacitors

Electronic Controllers and Cooling

Hydrogen Capable Ford V10 Triton Engine and Generator

Modified New Flyer Bus Glider (40 ft low floor)


Winnipeg’s Refueling Infrastructure

• Stuart Energy mobile refuellingtrailer– Electrolysis system

– 25 kg per day capacity

• Kraus Global, Inc. hydrogen dispenser


5.5 mi/kg => $36,000/yr

$600,000 (in production)

H2 Hybrid ICE

$30,000, assuming 7 mi/kg

$2.5 Million

(4 prototypes)

ISE Hybrid FCB

25,000 kg = > $100,000???

$2.5 Million?CUTE

5000 kg x $4/kg =$20,000

$1.7 Million

(prototype)

Thor/ISE Fuel Cell Bus

@ 3.5 mi/gal, $14,000-$28,000

$350,000Diesel transit bus

Fuel cost/yr

(50,000 mi/yr)

Vehicle CostVehicle

Bus and Fuel Costs*ISE Corporation, 2005


Hydrogen/Fuel Cell Projects in Minnesota

Minneapolis MN PV to H2 Demo

Rochester MN Utility Small Fuel Cell

Eden Prairie MN Fuel Cell Demo at Library

Chaska MN Fuel Cell Demo

Princeton MN Methane to Fuel Cell

Glyndon MN Plug Power GenCore FC

Albertville MN Plug Power GenCore FC

Fosston MN H2 from methane digester

Colleraine MN H2 from biomass gasification

Morris MN H2 from wind electroysis

Statwide MN Identify prioirty demo projects for MN legislature

Koochicing CountyMN MSW to H2 and other fuels

SOURCE: Minnesota Department of Commerce


Implications for Minnesota

1. World events suggest an urgent need to develop alternatives to gasoline

2. Minnesota is heavily dependent on outside sources of energy

3. The state has enormous potential for renewable hydrogen production

4. Our experience with E-85 suggests we could be leaders in hydrogen too

5. Significant cluster of fuel cell components manufacturers

6. Governor wants MN to become “Capitol of Renewable Energy”


How does H2 fit in larger energy transition?

• Near to mid-term: H2 RD&D, greater efficiency, more renewables, and improved conventional technologies

• Longer-term (15 to 50 years): Hydrogen becomes a major energy carrier alongside electricity. Solves climate, pollution and oil dependence problems.

[ ]

Significant Challenges Lie AheadSignificant Challenges Lie Ahead

�Hydrogen Storage

�Reliable, Low-Cost Fuel Cells

�Fueling Infrastructure

�Safety Codes & Standards

�Education

�Funding

�State & Local Involvement


Stone Age Didn’t End for Lack of Stones

"I believe fuel cell vehicles will finally end the hundred-year reign of the internal combustion engine. . .”

– William C. Ford, Jr., Ford

Chairman, International Auto Show, January 2000


Thank you!

Rolf NordstromDirector, UMHI

Great Plains Institute 2801 21st Avenue, South, Suite 230Minneapolis, MN 55407www.gpisd.netwww.umhi.org

612-278-7156 651-246-9386 (mobile)[email protected]

H2 station in

Amsterdam


ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources

• Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative: www.umhi.org

• UofM’s Initiative for Renewable Energy & the Env.: http://www1.umn.edu/iree

• National Hydrogen Association: www.hydrogenus.com

• DOE Hydrogen & Fuel Cell program: http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells

• U.S. Fuel Cell Council: http://www.usfcc.com

• “20 Hydrogen Myths” by Amory Lovins: www.rmi.org

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