The Potential & Challenge of A Hydrogen-Electic Economy
Transcript of The Potential & Challenge of A Hydrogen-Electic Economy
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The Potential & Challenge of A Hydrogen-Electric Economy
Renewable Energy: Options & OpportunitiesMinnesota Pollution Control Agency
September 15, 2005
Rolf NordstromUpper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative
Great Plains Institute, Minneapolis
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Upper Midwest Hydrogen InitiativeWorking on Tomorrow’s Solutions with Today’s Leaders
UMHI is an affiliate of the National Hydrogen Association
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Outline
1. Primer on hydrogen and fuel cells
2. Commercialization timeline
3. Activity in other states and nations
4. Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative
5. What’s going on in MN
Ford prototype fuel cell vehicle
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Hydrogen Has Been Called the Perfect FuelHydrogen Has Been Called the Perfect Fuel
Most abundant elementMost abundant element
Found in water, fossil fuels, all Found in water, fossil fuels, all organic matter organic matter
Colorless, odorless and nonColorless, odorless and non--toxic.toxic.
Burns cleanBurns clean
Produces only heat, electricity Produces only heat, electricity and water vapor when used in and water vapor when used in fuel cellsfuel cells
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Energy “Currencies” Allow Energy Transactions To Take PlaceEnergy “Currencies” Allow Energy Transactions To Take Place
Hydrogen is an energy Hydrogen is an energy CARRIER not an energy CARRIER not an energy sourcesource
Electricity transition began 100 years ago
Hydrogen is the “2nd
Currency”
Electricity and hydrogen are interchangeable
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Why all the talk about hydrogen?Why all the talk about hydrogen?
ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP
ENERGY SECURITY
ECONOMIC PROSPERITY
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Why Hydrogen?
Domestic and inexhaustible Pollution-free if produced/w renewable and carbon-neutral methods.Huge potential “peace dividend”
“Hydrogen could replace all gasoline and eliminate almost all CO2emissions”
— National Research Council, 2004
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Oil Consumption Increasing:
-CAFE increases include light trucks
-Beyond 2020, EIA data extrapolated
Million barrels per day
ProjectedActual
Domestic Production
NHTSA Proposal
20% CAFE Increase
(=28.8 mpg)Transportation Oil Use 40% CAFE
Increase (=33.6 mpg)
60% CAFE Increase
(=38.4 mpg)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Plus ANWR(Ref. EIA SR/O&G/2000-02,
and USGS Report 98-34)
ProjectedActual
Domestic Production
Transportation Oil Use
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End of Cheap Oil
"The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending,"
— Dave O'Reilly, CEO ChevronTexaco, 2005
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OPEC has received $7 trillion from U.S. consumers over the past three decades
– ~$640M/day; ~$7,400/second
Annual U.S. oil imports = 55%
Will grow to 70% by 2025 with status quo
$11 of the $12 billion Minnesotan’s pay for energy each year leaves the state
Need for Homegrown Energy
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Inexhaustible Energy Cycle
H2 burned orused in fuel cell
PowerHeat
Water vapor
H2 from biomassor water
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If hydrogen is so great, what is all the debate about?
1. How will the hydrogen will be produced? 2. Should hydrogen production be
centralized or decentralized 3. Is hydrogen the right energy carrier?4. Should fossil fuels be used as a source
of hydrogen during the transition?
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Hydrogen Already Here . . .Sort of
U.S. produces 9 million tons/year
95% from natural gas
8% of U.S. natural gas goes for H2
Globally, that number is 50 million tons/yearGlobal production is growing 6-7% per year
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How is hydrogen used now?
95% used on-site for oil refining or fertilizer productionRemaining 5% sold for range of minor usesSpace program
How Hydrogen is Used Now
Oil refining or fertilizer production
95%
Other uses5%
Oil refining orfertilizer productionOther uses
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What are the potential uses of hydrogen?
It could provide electricity, heat and transportation fuel throughout the economy
PortableStationary
Vehicles
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How Safe is Hydrogen?NASA scientist finds hydrogen NOT to blame for Hindenburg. Clear flame can’t sear you at a distanceNo smoke.Hard to make explode; can’t explode in free air; burns first.
Coated skin ignited, not H2
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How Safe is Hydrogen?
Fuel leak simulation
hydrogen on leftgasoline on rightequivalent energy release
3 seconds
1 minute
H2 Gasoline
From: M.R. Swain, Fuel Leak Simulation, University of Miami,
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Hydrogen is safe;sometimes safer
Rises and disperses quicklyNo relation to hydrogen bombsFord study concluded it’s as safe as other fuels; safer in many situations.
NREL picture of H2 flame
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Sources of Hydrogen
Non-Renewable:Natural gasCoalGasoline
Renewable:Biomass
Ethanol, methane, glycerol
Gasification
Water via electrolysis
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Does it take more energy than it yields?
70-75% *Hydrogen from water electrolysis
72-85% *
75-80%
Hydrogen from natural gas (SMR)Hydrogen from ethanol
29–35%Electricity from coal
73-91%Gasoline from oil(wellhead to pump)
EfficiencyEnergy Production
* Minus 15% to reflect lower heating value & allow fair comparison
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End-use efficiency is worth it
33%US electric grid
15-20%Internal combustion engine
80–90%Pure hydrogen FC –electricity + hot water use
40-65%Pure hydrogen FC –electricity only
EfficiencyPower system
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Long Term Vision: Hydrogen From Renewable EnergyLong Term Vision: Hydrogen From Renewable Energy
$6 - 7
$2 - 3
$9 - 10
$6.18$7.00
$3.60$2.25
$1.75 $2.10 $1.75
0
2
4
6
8
10
Wind Solar Biomass Coal* Natural Gas**
NRC 2004 Price Data – Today vs. Potential
( Units = $US/per kg )
Renewable Energy
Today Potential
65%
80%
Electrolyzer Eff.
* Centralized with sequestration**Centralized
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What are fuel cells?
Electrolysis in reverseRuns like a battery, but doesn’t run down as long as it’s supplied with fuelHighly efficientNo emissions other than water and heat
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Where did fuel cells come from?
First one in 1839 -Sir William GroveSerious interest in U.S. in 1960sProvide electricity & water for space shuttle.
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Fuel Cell StackFuel Cell Stack
Single Single Fuel Fuel Cell Cell
PEM Fuel Cells Primer
Fuel Cells produce electricity through the electrochemical oxidation of hydrogen.
Source – US Fuel Cell Council
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Benefits of Fuel Cells?• Zero harmful emissions• 2 X efficiency of traditional
engines• Wide range of applications• Quiet “good neighbor”• Can be scaled to many sizes• No moving parts• High quality power• Mini power plants
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Where Are We With Fuel Cells Today?Where Are We With Fuel Cells Today?
Cost:
Today, many fuel cells cost about $3,000/kW
Stationary power generation requires $800/kW
Transportation requires $50/kW to compete with the gasoline ICE
Durability:
Vehicles need 5,000 hr lifetime
Primary stationary power needs 50,000 hr (Emergency power: only 5,000 hr)
Today, the “head of the pack”is about halfway to bothdurability targets
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North American fuel cell market potential
By 2007:
$2.1 billion
By 2010:
$14.5 billion
(Price Waterhouse-Coopers)
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When might youbuy a fuel cell vehicle?
Every major automaker racing to be first; GM says by 2010
Others think longer or never
Honda, Toyota leasing small numbers already
First vehicles are fleets
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Do any hydrogen vehicles exist today?
Every major automaker has prototypes
100s of cars on the road
More than 30 buses
35 Priuses being converted to run on hydrogen
1st fuel cell family: Jon and Sandy Spallino of Redondo Beach, California
GM’s Sequel Fuel Cell Vehicle
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What are other states are doing?
At least 18 states have programs of some kind
Financial assistance for pilotsTax incentivesRenewable Portfolio Standards
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Efforts around the World
Europe $2.8 billion (2015)Canada $256 millionU.S. $1.7 billion (5 yrs)Japan Tripled since ‘95Iceland Switch to H2 by 2030
International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE) launched in Nov. 2004
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Transitional Phases
I. Technology Development Phase
II. Initial Market Penetration Phase
III. Infrastructure Investment Phase
IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase
Strong Government R&D Role
Strong Industry Commercialization Role
2 000
2020
2010
2030
2040
PhaseI
PhaseII
PhaseIII
PhaseIV
RD&D I
Transition to the Marketplace
Commercialization Decision
II
Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure III
Realization of the Hydrogen Economy IV
Fuel cell vehicles in the showroom and hydrogen at filling stations by 2020
How Soon?
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What is the Upper Midwest H2 Initiative?
Regional, public-private hydrogen and fuel cell partnership
Founded in 2003
Dedicated to accelerating commercialization of hydrogen and fuel cells.
Serving Manitoba, the Dakotas, Minnesota Iowa and Wisconsin
A public-private venture of the nonprofit Great Plains Institute
UMHI Region
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Current Membership
1. 3M 2. Broin Companies3. Distributed Generation
Solutions, Inc.4. Donaldson Company5. Energy and Environmental
Research Center, UND6. Energy Center of Wisconsin7. Entegris – Fuel Cells8. ePower Synergies, Inc.9. Initiative on Renewable
Energy & the Environment, U of M
10. Kraus Global, Inc.11. Minnesota Corn Growers
Association12. Moorhead Public Service (a
municipal utility)13. Manitoba Energy Development
Initiative14. North Dakota Wind expert15. Padilla Speer Beardsley16. R4 Energy17. South Dakota State University
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Vision
By 2030, the Upper Midwest is a leading provider of clean, carbon-neutral hydrogen
FedEx will use the vehicle on its regular delivery routes as part of a one-year project between FedEx and GM (Tokyo)
Source: H2expo.com
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Vision Cont’d
Hydrogen production and deliveryFuel cell and component manufacturing and services, andEnvironmental credit trading . . .
Will diversify the economy and create jobs in rural and urban communities throughout the region.
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MissionThe Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative will accelerate North America’s shift toward clean, domestic hydrogen production and use through:
1. Technology demonstrations2. Policy reform3. Public education4. Applied Research
John Deere Gator powered by Hydrogenics fuel cell
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Regional Strengths in Hydrogen Production
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“Early adopter” niche markets for H2 & fuel cellsAgricultural vehicles Airport vehiclesDelivery vehicles (e.g., UPS, FedEx, U.S. Postal Service)Fork lifts Large private fleets Municipal electric utilities
Ice resurfacing equipmentSmall truck fleetsGovernment fleetsTransit buses and shuttlesUniversity fleetsVehicles with unregulated air emissions
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WWW.ePowerSynergies.com
10
100
1000
10000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fuel Cell Power Pack Cost
Source: Goepel McDermid, Energy Technology Perspectives,2000
Modified 5/2002
Uni
t Pro
duct
Cos
t US$
/kW
Price-insensitive industrial applications 5000
Portable power 3500
50
Transportation auxiliary power
Cars
Distributed industrial/commercial power
Distributed residential power500
200 Utility Vehicle
PDV
Ice Refinishers
Trucks & Buses
Compact Tractor
Other off-road vehicles
Lawn Tractor
Commercial Mower
Military
Lift trucks
Hydrogenics purchase price history/forecast
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Fuel Cell “Ice Bear”
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eP-Ice Bear SummaryDevelop a fuel cell powered ice refinisher
Convert an electric Olympia to FC hybridTest at UND Ralph Englestad ArenaEstablish commercialization pathway
Develop a rink scale H2 generator, storage & dispensing system
Demonstrate practical on-site NG reforming Establish specs for rink sized system
Use both in a significant public education & outreach campaign
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Developing Hydrogen Infrastructure
“. . .the committee strongly suggests that the [hydrogen] transition be progressed with small, on-site hydrogen production systems at the filling station. . .”
National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering, 2004
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The “Northern H”:Flexible-Fuel H2 Highway Network
10-year effort to establish transitional H2 infrastructureSupports nearby on- or off-road fleet vehiclesTests variety of hydrogen production optionsEnables launch of H2-powered vehicles & builds demandEventually links major cities and other Hydrogen Highway effortsBenefits all 6 UMHI jurisdictions
Northern H network
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Flexible-fuel Hydrogen Stations
As transition infrastructure, the Northern H stations could offer:
GasolineE-85 Bio-diesel HydrogenStationary fuel cell
Existing E-85 station
5000 PSI H2 station
H2 production ultimately from renewable or carbon-neutral sources
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Northern H Already Enjoys Strong Support
Supported by 8 U.S. Senators & key House member
Endorsed by E PRI(Electric Power Research Inst.)
In line with Nat’l. Research Council’s recommendations to Congress
Northern H network
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What Customers will the Northern H Serve?
Conventional and hybrid ICE vehicles. Flexible-fuel vehiclesVehicles running on diesel and biodieselDedicated H2 fleets.
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Any hydrogen fueling stations now?
California has 16 stations1 public station in Washington DC87 stations exist worldwide170 new stations planned (CA, DC, FL, NV, NY)CA FL, IL, NY, Canada, Japan and Norway have “H2 highway” projects
H2 Highway in BC
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Hybrid ICE-Electric Hydrogen Bus
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Courtesy of UMHI Manitoba Energy Development Initiative
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What is the HHICE Bus?Hydrogen Gas Storage Tanks
Driver Position
UltracapacitorsElectronic Controllers and Cooling
Hydrogen Capable Ford V10 Triton Engine and Generator
Modified New Flyer Bus Glider (40 ft low floor)
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Winnipeg’s Refueling Infrastructure
Stuart Energy mobile refuellingtrailer
Electrolysis system25 kg per day capacity
Kraus Global, Inc. hydrogen dispenser
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How does H2 fit in larger energy transition?
Near to mid-term: H2 RD&D, greater efficiency, more renewables, and improved conventional technologies
Longer-term (15 to 50 years): Hydrogen becomes a major energy carrier alongside electricity. Solves climate, pollution and oil dependence problems.
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Significant Challenges Lie AheadSignificant Challenges Lie Ahead
Hydrogen Storage
Reliable, Low-Cost Fuel Cells
Fueling Infrastructure
Safety Codes & Standards
Education
Funding
State & Local Involvement
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Stone Age Didn’t End for Lack of Stones
"I believe fuel cell vehicles will finally end the hundred-year reign of the internal combustion engine. . .”
William C. Ford, Jr., FordChairman, International Auto Show, January 2000
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Thank you!
Rolf Nordstrom, DirectorGreat Plains Institute2801 21st Avenue, South, Suite 230Minneapolis, MN 55407www.gpisd.netwww.umhi.org
612-278-7156 651-246-9386 (mobile)[email protected]
H2 station in Amsterdam
Upper Midwest H2 Initiative:
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ResourcesUpper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative: www.umhi.org
UofM’s Initiative for Renewable Energy & the Env.: http://www1.umn.edu/iree
National Hydrogen Association: www.hydrogenus.com
DOE Hydrogen & Fuel Cell program: http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/
“20 Hydrogen Myths” by Amory Lovins: www.rmi.org
“Winning the Oil Endgame” http://www.oilendgame.org/