The Plant and Equipment Wellness Way · Day 2 PWW Processes •Risk Identification •Risk...

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The Plant and Equipment Wellness Wayto Enterprise Asset Management Success and

World Class Operational Excellence

3-day training course

DAY 2

http://www.lifetime-reliability.com/


PEW/PWW Course Content

Day 1

Foundations

• Physics of Failure

• Reliability

• Risk

• Cost of Failure

• Series Arrangements

• Human Error

• Life Cycle

• Reliability Improvement

Day 2

PWW Processes

• Risk Identification

• Risk Selection

• Risk Control Planning

• Risk Control Introduction

• Risk Monitoring

• Risk Continual Elimination

Day 3

Reliability Creation

• Business Risk Reduction

• Stress to Process Model

• Life Cycle Risk Reduction

• Operational Risk Reduction

• Machinery Risk Reduction

• Making Changes



Start by Developing Situational Process Maps

Operational Risk

Assessment

Risk Control Plans for

Maximum Reliability

Operational Strategy Design Strategy Maintenance Strategy

ACE 3T Precision

Operation Procedures

Precision Specifications BD – PM – PdM – Design

Out – Precision

Equipment Selection &

Engineering Design

Precision Operation

Assess Effectiveness

in Controlling Risk

ACE 3T Precision

Maintenance Tasks

Accept or Improve

Reliability

Update and Action

Risk Control Plans

•Script the details

•Select strategy

•Write ACE 3T Procedures

•Parallel proof tests for activities

•Update database

•Measure extent of improvement

•Cost against world class results

•Expert team reviews

•Limit operating parameters

•Skills upgrade

•Design-out failures

•Change strategy

•Update database

•New training

•New tools and equipment

•New procedures

•Identify failure causes

•Identify chance of failure

•Set Equipment Criticality

•Write control plans

indicating actions and

responsibility

Process Maps

•Identify failure costs

•Identify size of risks

•Apply to equipment

•Apply to work processes

The Plant and Equipment

Wellness Methodology




Day 2

PWW Processes


• Risk Selection



• Risk Monitoring




Plant Wellness Process 1 – Risk Identification

Develop Process Mapsof

Business – Machine – Work

Identify Risks in Each

Process Step

Categorize Effects of

Each Risk

Downtime Safety, Health,

Environment Loss

Quality LossRate Loss

Determine Defect and

Failure Total Business-

Wide Costs



Draw the Process Map to See the ‘Chance of Success’

Rbusiness = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn

Rprocess = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn

Rjob = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn

12

3

64 5

7

8

910

12

13

11

Rmachine = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn

“Without tools to find exactly what they need to focus on, without evidence that high reliability is worthwhile, and without an achievable plan to deliver it, organisations will waste away.”



No Certainty; Risk Changes Unless Controlled

Chance

Interaction of un-

coordinated agents

Risk Events are more

likely than by Chance

Consequence

Scale-free outcomes

Driven by a few key factors

Risk

Chance Consequence

Controlling risk demands that an organisation has the culture and practices to guarantee continuous, rigorous compliance to risk reduction practices, else the chance of failure rises

over time as systems degrade, and eventually the worst will happen.

Risk = Consequence x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity]



Aim to Find the Optimal Risk/Reliability Balance

Chance

Interaction of un-

coordinated agents

Risk Events

are more likely

than by Chance

Consequence

Scale-free outcomes

Driven by a few key

factors

Risk

Chance Consequence

PM CM RTF PdM

DESIGN OUT

Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Opportunity]

1-RELIABILITY

“Equipment Reliability and Operating Risk are inversely proportional”

PrM



Defect Creation and Failure Initiation

1

10

6,500

20,000

The Failure Pyramid

Repairs

Losses

Serious Failure

Defect Modes

Defect and Failure Cost

Surge

Source: Ledet, Winston, The Manufacturing Game



Common Defect Management Strategies



Defect Elimination and Failure Prevention

If you don’t want problems you need to prevent their cause. If you don’t want high maintenance you need to prevent the causes of that maintenance.



The Trouble with Accepting a Defect

Soft-foot is an example of a defect regularly brought into companies, that then causes on-going problems

Stack or Deck of shims

Bolt Head Machine Foot Shank Thread Frame

Bolt Head Machine Foot Shank Thread FrameShim Shim Shim Shim Shim

The shims have made the connection more unreliable. There are now more things to go wrong. They have added cost, additional maintenance and certainty of

human error at some point in time.

IT DID NOT HAVE TO BE SO!



Challenge Yourself to IT5 Machine Health Standards

ANSIAPI

ANSI pump base flatness = 0.375mm/m (0.005in/ft)… this standard causes soft-foot

API 610 flatness = 0.150mm/m (0.002in/ft)… this standard has few soft-foot problems

‘Reliability lives within 10 micron of perfection: Become a 5 micron quality company’



Defect and Failure Total (DaFT) Costs and Losses go Company-wide

It’s unbelievable how much money is wasted all over the business with each failure. The one I like is the time lost matching invoices against purchase orders that did not need to be

raised, but for the failure! The ‘lost life value’ of parts is expensive too.



Whenever I’ve calculated the DAFT Costs they came out between 7 and 15 times the direct repair cost. I use 10 times as a ‘rule of thumb’.

Failure Costs Surge throughout a Company

Labour

Product Sales

Services

Capital Equipment

Consequence

Waste

Materials

AdministrationEquipment Failure Cost

Surge

Curtailed Life

Every department in the business gets hit from the ‘failure cost surge’.



Calculate the True Downtime Costs



Equipment Process Maps Show Us Series Risks

Power

Supply

Switch

Board

Power

Cable

Electric

Motor

Drive

Coupling

Wet EndBearing

Housing

Product

Flows

Stator Motor

Bearings

Motor

Shaft

Motor

Frame

Rotor Shaft

Rotates

Terminal

Connections

Brushes

Mechanical

Seal

Cut

Water

DischargePump

Shaft

Volute Liquid

Flows

Suction Impeller

Base

Plate

Supports

Equipment

Pedestal FoundationHolding

Bolts

Base

Plate

Supports

Equipment

Pedestal FoundationHolding

Bolts

Frame Shaft

Rotates

Pump

Shaft

Shaft

Bearings

Bus Bars Electricity

Flows

StarterDrive

Rack

Power

Provider

Transmission

Line

Transformer Power

Arrives

Wiring and

Circuitry



PEW SOLUTION: Physics of Failure Causes of Atomic and Microstructure Stress



Equipment Risk Identification Table

Equip AssemblySub-Assy or

Parts

Sub-Sub Assy

or Parts

Risks - Possible Causes

of Failure

Effects of Worst Likely

Failure

DAFT Cost of Worst

FailureComments

Pump-set

01

1 Power Supply

Power Provider failure Downtime $100,000$25,000 per hour. Minimum 4 hours if

power is turned off

Lightening strike 1. Downtime $200,000Minimum 8 hours if power is lost due to

failure

2 Switch Board

Fire Downtime $200,000

Liquid ingress Downtime $200,000

Impact 1. Downtime $200,000

3Panel

Connection

Loose clamp bolts 1. Fire in switchboard

2. Poor cable crimping Fire in switchboard

4 Drive Rack

1. Dust from Product Fire in switchboard

Poor assembly 1. Fire in switchboard

3. Rust into place 1. Downtime

5 Motor StarterOverload 1. Downtime

Short circuit 1. Major electrical burn

6 Power Cable

7 Electric Motor

8 Connection

9 Motor frame

10 Base Plate

11 Holding Bolts

12 Pedestal

13 Foundation

14 Stator

15 Brushes

16 Rotor

17 Bearings

18 Shaft

19 Drive Coupling

20 Bearing Housing

22 Shaft



Process Map the Job Activity to See Series Risk



Work Activity Risk Identification Table

Dep't Process Job Task

Risks - Possible

Causes of

Failure

Effects of

Worst Likely

Failure

DAFT Cost of

Worst FailureRisk Control Plans Actions to be Taken

Proof that

Actions are

Completed

Production

1

Monthly

Cost

Report

2

Start

Information

Collection

Gather Sales

information

from

Accounts

1. Information

not available

Report not

completed on time$500

Warn Accounts of

impending report date

Set-up a electronic schedule

entry to automatically warn

Accounts Manager one

week prior report due date

Department Manager

to check schedule

entered

2. Wrong

information

provided

Bad management

decision$10,000

Get Accounts to double-

check cost information is

correct

Accounts to include double

check actions into their

work procedure

Accounts to send copy

of revised procedure to

Department Secretary

for review

3. Incomplete

information

presented

Bad management

decision$10,000

Get Accounts to double-

check cost information is

complete

Accounts to include double

check actions into their

work procedure

Accounts to send copy

of revised procedure to

Department Secretary

for review

3Collate

Monthly Costs

Put costs into

cost centres

4Compile

Spreadsheet

Enter cash

flow details

using data

entry

procedure

5Review Cost

Spreadsheet

Department

Manager

checks

spreadsheet

6

Confirm all

costs are

recorded

7Write Monthly

Report

Department

Manager

writes report

8

Report

forwarded to

Head Office




Day 2

PWW Processes


• Risk Selection



• Risk Monitoring




Plant Wellness Process 2 – Risk Rating

Determine the Equipment

Criticality Risk Rating

Grade Each Risk by its

Impact on Reaching the

Business Vision

Low Risk Medium Risk Extreme RiskHigh Risk

Script Asset Performance

required to Deliver the

Business Vision



Uncertain Component Degradation Rates mean Uncertain Equipment Failure Dates and Costs

Smooth Running

Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)

Op

era

tin

g P

erf

orm

ance

Failed

Impending Failure

Change in Performance Detectable

Do Maintenance & Condition Monitor

Operating Below Service SpecificationRepair or Replace

F

P

Inspection Frequency(one-third of P-F interval)

Impeller Wear

Volute Wear

Mechanical Seal

Shaft Coupling

Inboard Bearing

Outboard Bearing

Motor Stator Windings

Motor Rotor WindingsDrive-end Bearing

Non-Drive End Bearing

Time or Usage

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

F

F

F

F

F

F

F

F

F

0

P

Breakdown

Direct Coupled Centrifugal Pump

Degradation Curve Concept Each Part has a Degradation Curve



Uncertain Operating Life Remaining with Business-Wide Costs and Losses = RISK DECISIONS


Op

era

tin

g P

erf

orm

ance

Cost of Minor Maintenance & Condition Monitoring

Business-Wide Costs of Failure

Business-Wide Cost of Planned

Repair

F1

P1

Future Costs and Losses Arise when a Failure is Initiated

P2

F2


Op

era

tin

g P

erf

orm

ance

F1

P1

F3

Fluctuating Degradation Rate Introduces Uncertainty in Timing and Amount of Expenditure

$$

F2

$$ $

Business-Wide Costs = maintenance cost + production costs + production losses + all other business-wide losses/costs

We have a probabilistic situation!



Recognising the Extent of Your Risks

Planned Work = $50K business-wide costs

Breakdown Work = $300K business-wide costs


Op

era

tin

g P

erf

orm

ance

F1

P1

Expected Scenario

Raise Work Order #1

One Month


Op

era

tin

g P

erf

orm

ance

P1

Worst Scenario

One Week

F1How long are you willing to wait to do WO #1?

1

B

1

B

B

Do WO #1

Event Risk ‘Envelope’



The Risk in Rescheduling Maintenance Work

Planned Work = $50K business-wide costs

Breakdown Work = $300K business-wide costs


Op

era

tin

g P

erf

orm

ance

F1

P1

Expected Scenario

Raise Work Order #1

One Month


Op

era

tin

g P

erf

orm

ance

P1

Worst Scenario

One Week

F1

1

How often are you willing to reschedule WO #1?

Do WO #1

Resched WO #1

B2

1

B

2

Cost of Scheduling Misjudgement = $250K loss



Use a Risk Matrix to Show Impact of Choices

Nothing is Certain with Risk; It Changes Unless it is Controlled

Risk = Consequence x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity]



Plot Current Operational Risk on the Matrix

Likelihood of Equipment

Failure Event per Year

DA

FT

Co

st

per

Ev

en

t

$3

0

$1

00

$3

00

$1

,00

0

$3

,00

0

$1

0,0

00

$3

0,0

00

$1

00

,00

0

$3

00

,00

0

$1

,00

0,00

0

$3

,00

0,00

0

$1

0,0

00,0

00

$3

0,0

00,0

00

$1

00

,00

0,00

0

$3

00

,00

0,00

0

$1

,00

0,00

0,00

0

Event

Count /

Year

Time ScaleDescriptor

ScaleHistoric Description 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9

100 Twice per week 2 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11

30Once per

fortnight1.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5

10Once per

monthCertain 1 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10

3Once per

quarter0.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5

1 Once per yearAlmost

Certain

Event will occur on an

annual basis0 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9

0.3Once every 3

yearsLikely

Event has occurred

several times or more in

a lifetime career

-0.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5

0.1Once per 10

yearsPossible

Event might occur once

in a lifetime career-1 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8

0.03Once per 30

yearsUnlikely

Event does occur

somewhere from time to

time

-1.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

0.01Once per 100

yearsRare

Heard of something like

it occurring elsewhere-2 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

0.003Once every

300 years-2.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5

0.001Once every

1,000 yearsVery Rare

Never heard of this

happening-3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

0.0003Once every

3,000 years-3.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

0.0001Once every

10,000 years

Almost

Incredible

Theoretically possible

but not expected to

occur

-4 3.5 4 4.5 5

Note: Risk Level 1) Risk Boundary 'LOW' Level is set at total of $10,000/year

Red = Extreme 2) Based on HB436:2004-Risk ManagementAmber = High 3) Identify 'Black Swan' events as B-S (A 'Black Swan' event is one that people say 'will not happen' because it has not yet happened)

Yellow = Medium 4) DAFT Cost (Defect and Failure True Cost) is the total business-wide cost from the event

Green = Low

Blue = Accepted

$$$$$$

Reduce Consequence

Re

du

ce C

han

ce



Activity : Will these PM tasks prevent a failure?

Source: Ricky Smith, Allied Reliability, 2009



Activity – How sure are you that a maintenance task is truly effective in preventing the equipment failure?

Table shows actual results of RCM analysis to be implemented.



Risk Based Operating Strategy

• Know the worst case business-wide financial loss of a failure event.

• Make the risk visual by identifying the risk ‘envelop’ on a risk matrix.

• Let people that know the chance-of-failure ‘envelope’ make the WO scheduling decisions.

• Measure and track the rate of degradation when an impending failure is identified.

• Use stress reduction and degradation management controls to reduce the odds of a breakdown.

Impeller Wear

Volute Wear

Mechanical Seal

Shaft Coupling

Inboard Bearing

Outboard Bearing




Time or Usage

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

F

F

F

F

F

F

F

F

F

0

P

Breakdown

Good – use suitable CM to detect ‘P’ potential failure point sufficiently early.

Better – use risk based prioritisation to schedule work orders with increasing risk acknowledged and approved up the command hierarchy.

Best – use proactive degradation management to extends operating life and delay ‘P’.

Impeller Wear

Volute Wear

Mechanical Seal

Shaft Coupling

Inboard Bearing

Outboard Bearing




Time or Usage0



Case Study – Use a Risk Cost Calculator to Understand Impacts of Risk Management Options



Classical Risk Analysis Method

Targets, Criteria

Equipment

Identification of Failure Causes

Frequency Analysis Consequence Analysis

Risk Determination

Evaluate Business Case, Recommendations

WorkOrder

History



www.lifetime-reliability.com

To Gauge Risk We need to Measure and See It

Risk ($/Yr) =

Frequency of Occurrence (events/Yr)

x Consequence of Occurrence ($/event)

Risk is the product of probability or likelihood that an event will happen and the cost if it does. It is a power law. The Operating Risk is the total size

of the financial loss that will be incurred from a failure during operation.

Risk does not arise entirely randomly; rather it is affected by ‘decision-makers’ present in a system, usually us. It means the risk of catastrophic events occurs more often than by pure chance. In power-law-mirrored events a few factors have huge impacts, while all the numerous rest have little effect. For risk this means there are a few key factors that influence the likelihood of catastrophe. Control these few factors and you increase the chance of success.They are known as the critical success factors. You can identify them by asking, “What affects the ability to meet the objective?”



Identify What Risks You WILL NOT Carry

This table is the basic approach to identify the extent of risk. There is full mathematical modelling as well, but this basic method is a fine start. The layout is universal. You change ‘consequence’ descriptions to what

you are willing to accept, and the costs to DAFT Costs you are willing to pay.

Reduce Consequence

Red

uce

Ch

ance



Risk $/yr = Consequence ($)

x

No of Opportunities (/yr)

X

Chance of Failure at Opportunity

Apply DAFT costs when using the risk

management process to get a full understanding

of what it really costs the business so you can make better lifetime decisions.

The DAFT Costs are horrendous and unless

fully reflected in your risk analysis you will under-cost your true exposure.

Need DaFT Costs to See Total Business Risk

Extracted from AS 4360

Best to follow ISO 31000 Risk Management Guideline



Equipment Criticality

Equipment Criticality is used to identify operating equipment in risk order of importance to the continued operation of a facility.

Those equipment items that stop the operation, or cause major costs if they fail, are identified as critical.

The selection of appropriate means to prevent a failure can only be made when all the implications and knock-on effects are fully

costed, understood and appreciated.



Recognising the Size of Your Equipment Risk

Equipment Criticality =

Operational Risk ($/yr) =

Failure Frequency (/yr) x Cost Consequence ($)

Equipment Criticality is a risk rating indicator.



Equipment Criticality Includes all Risks

Equipment Item

ProcessSubstance

Hazard

PotentialConsequence ofMachine failure

on process

Safety Case/ Legislation

Hazard due toMechanical failure

potential

Serious Business Consequence

(DISCRETIONARY)

Consider the natureOf the hazard

Is process substance hazard HIGH?

Consider potentialRelease consequence

Is potential releaseconsequence HIGH?

Are potential consequences

HIGH?

Is potential for mechanical failure

HIGH?

Is system to beClassified “Critical”?

Is system to beclassified “Critical”?

CRITICAL forpotential process consequences

CRITICAL forMechanical failure Potential hazards

CRITICAL under the Regulations/Legislation

CRITICAL for seriousBusinessconsequences

YESNO Not

CRITICAL

CRITICAL forProcess Substance reasons

Thanks to David Finch for the slide



65%

25%

10%Spend on

Machines

by Size 300KW

50-300KW

0-50KW

Maintenance Expenditure

Risk = Consequence $ x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity]

1

10

6,500

20,000

The Failure Pyramid

Repairs

Losses

Serious Failure

Defect Modes

Defect and Failure Cost

Surge

Source: Ledet, Winston, The Manufacturing Game

What you see as maintenance costs is a reflection the number problems and defects suffered by your plant and equipment.

1-RELIABILITY

What Risks are Your Equipment Experiencing?

Time/Usage related ImplicationsTime/Usage related Implications



The Application of Risk Based Principlesto Managing Maintenance

Hazard Identificationidentifies failure modes

Risk Assessmentestablishes the probability and

consequence of failure

Risk Evaluationdetermines the acceptability of failure

to safety, process etc

Risk Controlreduces risk through effective

maintenance practices

MonitoringVerifies initial assumptions and

maintenance effectiveness

In Maintenance you deliver the risk control strategies selected for your operation, and then check if they

actually do lift the plant reliability. If they are not working well enough it

requires an investigation to understand what is happening with the delivery of

the strategy.

Includes Regular

Process Auditing



How the Risk Matrix Frequency is Developed

Risk Level

Descriptor DescriptionIndicative Frequency(expected to occur)

Actual Failures per

Year(historic evidence basis)

Likelihood of Failure per Year(opportunity for failure basis)

Opportunities(No. of Times a Situation Arises)

Probability of Failure

6 CertainFailure event will occur at this

site annually or more oftenOnce a year or

more often1 or more

Count every time the situation for an event occurs

1 if failure results every time the situation arises

5 LikelyFailure event regularly occurs

at this siteOnce every 2 to

3 years1 in 2 = 0.5

1 in 3 = 0.33Count every time the situation

for an event occurs0.1 if failure results 1 in 10 times the situation arises

4 PossibleFailure event is expected to

occur on this siteOnce every 4 to

6 years1 in 4 = 0.251 in 6 = 0.17


0.01 if failure results 1 in 100 times the situation arises

3 UnlikelyFailure event occurs from time

to time on this site or in the industry

Once every 7 to 10 years

1 in 7 = 0.141 in 10 = 0.1


0.001 if failure results 1 in 1,000 times the situation

arises

2 RareFailure event could occur on

this site or in the industry but doubtful


1 in 11 = 0.091 in 15 =0.07



arises

1 Very RareFailure event hardly heard of in the industry. May occur but in

exceptional circumstances


1 in 16 = 0.061 in 20 = 0.05



arises



Risk Identification and Removal Worksheets

Before setting-up an RCFA Team, use this simple approach with the plant operator and maintainers. They usually know what is going

on in the place!



Match Equipment Maintenance and Operating Practices to Equipment Criticality

ComponentSub-

ComponentTotal Failure Cost Risk Rating

Equipment

Criticality at

Present

Required

Operating

Practice

Required

Maintenance

Equipment

Criticality

AFTER

Mitigations

System

Loss Cost

$

Sub-System

Loss Cost

$

Event

Frequency

SHOW IT ON A

RISK MATRIX

SHOW IT ON A

RISK MATRIX

EngineRisk = Total of

sub-systems?????

Fuel system 1500 Often EMonitor

operation

Regular

service?????

Crank and

pistons1000 Occasional E

Monitor

operation

Regular

service?????

Engine

block2500 Rare H

Monitor

operation

Regular

service?????

Cooling

system1000 Occasional H

Monitor

operation

Regular

service?????

Oil system 1000 Often EMonitor

operation

Regular

service?????

Ignition

system1500 Often E

Monitor

operation

Regular

service?????

Gearbox 3000 Occasional HRegular

service?????

You put this table together with the people that operate the plant in face-to-face meetings. It’s their money you will be spending, and they need to be happy with how it impacts their costs and their production plans.




Day 2

PWW Processes


• Risk Selection



• Risk Monitoring




Plant Wellness Process 3 – Risk Controls

•Chance / Consequence

Reduction Strategies

EXISTING OPERATIONS

PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

Select Risk Controls

identified using

FMECA and RGCA

Plant and Equipment

Risk Management

Plans

Operating

Tasks

Maintenance

Tasks

Accuracy

Controlled

Enterprise

Engineering

Re-Design

Confirm Extent of Risk

Reduction and Amount of

DAFT Cost Savings

NEW CAPITAL

PROJECTS, PLANT AND

EQUIPMENT

Design and Operations

Cost Totally Optimised

Risk (DOCTOR)

Defect Elimination and

Failure Prevention

Documentation



Risk Reduction – Reduce Chance or Reduce Consequence?

Risk = Chance x Consequence

Engineering and Maintenance Standards Failure Design-out - Corrective Maintenance Failure Mode Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Statistical Process Control Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Precision Maintenance Hazard Identification (HAZID) Training and Up-skilling Quality Management Systems Planning and Scheduling Continuous Improvement Supply Chain Management Accuracy Controlled Enterprise SOPs (ACE 3T) Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review (DOCTOR) Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC) Oversize/De-rate Equipment Reliability Engineering

Preventative Maintenance Predictive Maintenance Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) Non-Destructive Testing Vibration Analysis Oil Analysis Thermography Motor Current Analysis Prognostic Analysis Emergency Management Computerised Maintenance Management System (CMMS) Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Operator Watch-keeping Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing) Logistics, stores and warehouses Maintenance Engineering

Chance Reduction Strategies Consequence Reduction Strategies

Done to reduce the chance of failure Done to reduce the cost of failure

www.lifetime-reliability.com

$

Output / TimeEffects on Profitability of Reducing Consequence Only

t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

Fewer profits lost, but ‘fire-

fighting’ is high

Accumulated Wasted Variable and Failure Costs

Wasted Fixed Costs

Revenue

Variable Cost

Fixed Cost

Total Cost

Never

ends

Time

$

Output / TimeEffects on Profit of Reducing Chance Only

t1 t2

Fewer Profits

Lost

Wasted Fixed Costs

Revenue

Total Cost

Fixed Cost

Variable Cost



Maintenance Strategy for Risk Management

Critical Spares

Parts Level FMEA or

RGCA

Engineering, Maintenance and Operational Risk Management

Requirements

Condition Monitoring

DAFT Costing Equipment Criticality

ACE 3T Work Procedures

Skilled Resource

Requirements

Equipment Asset

Life Cycle Choices



PEW SOLUTION: Apply Chance Reduction by Proactive Risk Management

•Engineering & Maintenance Standards

•Design-out Maintenance

•Precision Maintenance

•3T Standardised Operating Procedures

•Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis

•Reliability Growth Cause Analysis

•Hazard and Operability Study

•Hazard Identification

•Root Cause Failure Analysis

•Training and Up-skilling

•Quality Management Systems

•Planning and Scheduling

•Continuous Improvement

•Supply Chain Management

•Accuracy Controlled Enterprise

•Design and Operations Cost Totally Optimized Risk

•Defect and Failure Total Cost

•De-rate/Oversize Equipment

•Reliability Engineering

•Preventive Maintenance

•Corrective Maintenance

•Breakdown Maintenance

•Total Productive Maintenance

•Non-Destructive Testing

•Vibration Analysis

•Oil Analysis

•Thermography

•Motor Current Analysis

•Prognostic Analysis

•Emergency Management

•Computerized Maintenance Management System

•Key Performance Indicators

•Risk Based Inspection

•Operator Watch-keeping

•Process Step Contribution Mapping (Process Step

activity based costing)

•Stores and Warehouses

•Maintenance Engineering

Chance Reduction

Strategies

Consequence Reduction

Strategies

Risk = Chance x Consequence

Proactive prevention of failure Reactive response to failure

Nu

mb

er o

f Ev

ents

Range of Values of a Critical Parameter

IMPROVE PROCESSES



3 Factors Risk Reduction– Reduce Chance, Opportunity and/or Consequence?

Done to reduce the cost of failure Done to reduce the frequency of failure

Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Opportunity to Fail x (1 – Chance of Success)]

Strategies prevent opportunities for a failure event arising

Engineering / Maintenance Standards Statistical Process Control Degradation Management Reliability Growth Cause Analysis (RGCA) Lubrication Management Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Hazard Identification (HAZID) Failure Design-out Maintenance Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Precision Maintenance Training and Up-skilling Quality Management Systems Planning and Scheduling Continuous Improvement Supply Chain Management Accuracy Controlled SOPs (ACE 3T) Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review (DOCTOR) Reliability Engineering

Strategies presume failure event occurs and act to minimise consequent losses

Preventive Maintenance Shutdown Maintenance Predictive Maintenance Non-Destructive Testing

Vibration Analysis Oil Analysis Thermography Motor Current Analysis

Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) Prognostic Analysis Criticality Analysis Emergency Management Computerised Maint Mgmt Syst(CMMS) Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Operator Watch-keeping Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing) Logistics, stores and warehouses Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC) Maintenance Engineering

Opportunity to Fail Reduction Strategies

Consequence of Failure Reduction Strategies

Strategies reduce probability of failure initiation if failure opportunity present

Training and Up-skilling Oversize / De-rate Equipment Hardier Materials of Construction Personal Protective Equipment (PPE ) Segregation / Separation Controlled Atmosphere Environment e.g. +ve / -ve pressures, explosion proof atmos

Chance to Fail Reduction Strategies

Risk ($/yr) = Consequence of Failure x Frequency of Failure

Interestingly, Chance Reduction choices are best

made during design.



Equipment Reliability Strategies

Time – Age of Equipment

Strategies for the Infant Mortality Maintenance Zone

Rate of Failing

How to Drive the Chance Curve Down?

How to Pull the Position of the Curve Lower?

How to Push the Time of the Curve Back?


Strategies for the Random Failure Maintenance Zone

How to Drive the Position of the Curve Lower?

Rate of Failing


Strategies for the Wear-Out Failure Maintenance Zone

Rate of Failing

How to Push the Start of the Rising Curve Back?

How to Lower the Curve Steepness?

Quality Control,Training,

Precision Assembly

PM,PdM,

PrecisionOperation

Replace Equipment,Add more components

to renewal PM


53www.lifetime-reliability.comOperating Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Frequency of Event x Probability of Failure at Event]

Match Maintenance Strategies to RiskDoing Maintenance must produce Risk Reduction.

Consequence

Like

liho

od

Breakdown Maintenance

Preventive Maintenance

Sampling Predictive Maintenance

Continuous Monitoring Predictive Maintenance

Precision MaintenanceDesign-out Maintenance

Design-out Maintenance

One way to chose the maintenance type is to match against the risk matrix. The high risks must be prevented by using the right maintenance type for the situation.

Choosing the right maintenance types is not sufficient to guarantee risk reduction. The ‘human element’ must also be addressed to ensure the strategies are being applied correctly and effectively.

1-RELIABILITY

Move from Reactive to Proactive to Risk Reduction.



Maintenance Strategies Matched to Risk Levels

Consequence Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

Frequency 1 2 3 4 5

6 Certain PM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /

Design-outDesign-out Design-out

5 Likely PM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /

Design-out

Precision /

Design-outDesign-out

4 Possible PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /

Design-out

Precision /

Design-out

3 Unlikely BD PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /

Design-out

2 Rare BD PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / Precision

1 Very Rare BD PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / Precision



Using a Risk Matrix to Model Our Choices



Example: Risk Cost Calculation for Roller



Developing Equipment Risk Reduction StrategyEquip

Tag

No

Current

Failure

Events

Failure

Events

Frequency

DAFT

Cost of

Failure

Risk Reduction

ActivityImprovement Expected

Freq of

Activity

Cost /

YrFailure Event Reduction

Pump 1Bearings fail

2 years $35,000

Laser shaft alignment to precision practices every time the pump is installed

A precision alignment is expected to deliver 5 years between bearing failures

Every strip-down

$200Failure interval now likely to be greater than 5 years

Oil and wear particle analysis every 1,000 hours of operation

Oil and Wear Particle Analysis can indicate the start of failure several hundred hours prior the event

1,000 hrs or Six monthly

$600Failure will be prevented by a predictive planned condition monitoring task

Visual inspection by the Operator each shift of the oil level in the sight glass

Visual inspection of the oil level ensure the bearings are always lubricated

Every Dayshift

No costFailure will be prevented by operator condition monitoring

Operator physically touches pump bearing housing each week to feel for changed temperature and vibration

Touching the bearing housing will identify impending problems before they cause failure

Wednesday Dayshift

No costFailure will be prevented by operator condition monitoring

Motor load monitoring using process control system to count overloads

Monitoring the electrical load will identify how badly and how often the equipment is stressed by overload

Continuous with monthly report to Ops Manager

$100Poor operating practices will be identified and personnel trained in correct methods

Pump performance monitoring of discharge flow and pressure using process control system

Monitoring the pump performance will indicate gradual changes of pump internal clearances affecting service duty

Continuous with monthly report to Ops Manager

$100

No direct impact on reducing risk of pump failure, but identifies performance drop and allows planned maintenance to rectify internal wear.



Identify the New Risk Level

Reduce Consequence

Red

uce

Ch

ance



Use Low Cost Ways to Monitor Low Risks

65%

25%

10%Machines by size

300KW

50-300KW

0-50KW

Current application of CBM is typically on critical machines … what of the rest?

CBM = Condition Based Maintenance = PdM = Predictive Maintenance

Maintenance Expenditure

Stethoscope Laser Thermometer Touch Thermometer Vibration Pen Boroscope Operator & Checklist

First use low-tech options to monitor … then hi-tech to investigate problems.

It’s easy to be focused on looking after the condition of important equipment while lesser items are left to fail. But breakdown maintenance is up to 10 times the cost of planned maintenance. Unless you monitor low priority plant with low-cost methods and operator watch-keeping, you’ll spend your money fixing breakdowns on unimportant equipment.




Day 2

PWW Processes


• Risk Selection



• Risk Monitoring




Plant Wellness Process 4 - Introduce Risk Control

Write Specifications for

Plant and Equipment

Write ACE 3T Procedures for

Operations, Maintenance,

Engineering and Projects

Training and Competency

Assessment Plans for Up-

skilling Personnel

Train People until

Competency is Achieved

Build Teams and Grant

Autonomy and

Responsibility

Develop Computerised

Database of Operations-

Wide Quality Standards

Make Database Available

to All Personnel

Set and Write Operating, Maintenance

and Work Quality Standards that When

Met Will Deliver Risk Control

Identify Maximum Failure-

Free Service Duty for

Plant and Equipment



Controlling the Chance of a Failure Event

Consequence of Event

Ch

an

ce

of

Eve

nt Uncontrolled processes

produce a range of outcomes

without consistency

Consequence of Event

Ch

an

ce

of

Eve

nt

GoodGood

Better Better

Do not accept these

outcomes because

they produce high

risk of failure

Do not accept these

outcomes because

they produce high

risk of failure

X XSpecification

Best

Only accept this range of outcomes

because they produce good results



Being ‘in control and capable’

Out of control

In control but not capable

In control and capable

Ch

an

ce

of

Eve

nt

Output

Process designed to allow its

natural variation to consistently

produce a range of outcomes

within specification

Out of control

In control and capableIn control but

not capable



ACE 3T Quality Management System is used for Continual System-Wide Improvement

Quality Improvement Tools

Plan

Do

Measure

Improve

Measure means to check you have statistical control

We want to do all work with certainty that it will improve reliability. To do that we need a business system that promotes and continually improves the accuracy and quality of our engineering, operations

and maintenance workmanship processes across the life cycle . Such system is called a Quality Management System. In PEW we use ACE 3Ts throughout the business and its processes.

Stan

dar

d t

o M

ee

t

Time

Requirements, Needs, Expectations

Performance Level

Degree to which inherent quality characteristics meet stated or implied needs.

The Meaning of Quality

Effect of Using a Quality System

“With maintenance you need to drive a continuous improvement culture.”



We create lasting reliability in our machines by stopping these problems starting

12

3

64 5

7

8

910

12

13

11

Electric motor drive end bearing



Many Opportunities for Errors in Our Work

A Job

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Outcome

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5

A Job

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Outcome

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5

Activity 5-1 Activity 5-2 Activity 5-3 Activity 5-4 Activity 5-5







CEO

Shopfloor

Middle Mgmt and Engineering

Supervisory

Senior MgmtProduction

CEO

Engineering

Maintenance

Marketing Admin

Shopfloor

Who uses the equipment ?

Who knows the equipment capability?

Who knows the process?

Where does the equipment knowledge lay?

What equipment knowledge is needed by each level?

What equipment skills & abilities are needed by each level?

Who owns the equipment?

Design Organisations that Support Reliability



Production

CEO

Engineering

Maintenance

Marketing Admin

Product Realisation

Mission Management

Resource Management

Demand Management

From … Function Structure

To … Process Structure

Shopfloor

Process Focused – Not Department Focused

A cross-functional team is a group of people with a clear purpose representing a variety of functions or disciplines in the organisation whose combined efforts are necessary for achieving the team’s aim.

A standard cross functional team is composed of those individuals from departments within the firm whose competencies are essential in achieving an optimal outcome.

Define: (1) purpose, (2) duration, (3) membership



Why Hierarchy Organizations are High Risk

Hierarchy Structure

Reliability of ACE 3T Team work process is:

R = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.729

Supervisor paralleled to overview a group

R = 1 - [(1-0.729) x (1-0.9)] = 0.9729

The reliability of the three groups is

R = 0.9729 x 0.9729 x 0.9729 = 0.921

With the Manager in parallel reliability is

R = 1 - [(1-0.921) x (1-0.9)] = 0.992

Manager

Supervisor 1 Supervisor 2 Supervisor 3

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

Manager

Supervisor 1 Supervisor 2 Supervisor 3

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

RS1

RS1P1 RS1P2 RS1P3

RS2 RS3

RS2P1 RS2P2 RS2P3 RS3P1 RS3P2 RS3P3

RM

Reliability of a 2.5 - 3 sigma work process is:

R = 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.343

Supervisor paralleled to overview a group

R = 1 - [(1-0.343) x (1-0.7)] = 0.803

The reliability of the three groups is

R = 0.803 x 0.803 x 0.8039 = 0.518

With the Manager in parallel reliability is

R = 1 - [(1-0.518) x (1-0.7)] = 0.855

134%

65%

Creating 4-Sigma work performance is a business process decision

Most organisations are 2.5 - 3 Sigma quality without accuracy controlled methods. 4-Sigma performance is rare



Teams Create Parallel Arrangements of People

A Job

Task 1

Person

1

Outcome

P31 P32 P33 P34 P35

Help of

Person

2

Help of

Person

3

Task 2

Person

1

Help of

Person

2

Help of

Person

3

Task 3

Person

1

Help of

Person

2

Help of

Person

3

Task 4

Person

1

Help of

Person

2

Help of

Person

3

Task 5

Person

1

Help of

Person

2

Help of

Person

3

P21 P22 P23 P24 P25

P11 P12 P13 P14 P15

Pparallel = 1 - [(1-P1) x (1-P2) x ….(1-Pn)]

In companies that want high quality, high reliability and fewer risks, groups designed with

teamwork organisational structure are likely to produce many more favourable results.

If each person is 90% reliable, their individual

effort results in a job reliability of 59%. When done as a team of three,

the job reliability becomes 99.5%



Cross-Functional Teams are High Performers

Manager

Team Speaker

1

Team Speaker

2

Team Speaker

3

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

RS1 RS2

RS2P1

RS2P2

RS2P3

RM

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

RS1P1

RS1P2

RS1P3

Person

1

Person

2

Person

3

RS3

RS3P1

RS3P2

RS3P3

Teams Structure

For a team of four people, with each person’s reliability at 0.7

R = 1 - [(1-0.7) x (1-0.7) x (1-0.7) x (1-0.7)] = 1 - [(0.008)] = 0.992

The three groups work in series,

R = 0.992 x 0.992 x 0.992 = 0.976

When the manager, also at reliability 0.7, the reliability of the structure is:

R = 1 - [(1-0.976) x (1-0.7)] = 1 - [(0.007)] = 0.993 (near 4-sigma quality)

Using the same people doing

work with 0.7 reliability, the silo

structure produced 2.5 sigma

quality, while the team

structure delivered 4 sigma

quality. The manager

improved the silo arrangement

by 65% and got 86%

departmental reliability, but in a

team structure they improved

departmental performance by

only 2% to get 99%

departmental reliability.

It seems that most of the

reliability benefits of a team

reside with the team, and

little with the management

levels.2%



Team-up and bring Knowledge and Skill Together to Stop People Jumping to Wrong Conclusions

Task Activity 1 Decision 1 Task Activity 2

Extra Research

Discuss with

Expert

Check History

Database

Water Supply

Tank

Suction

Piping

Power

Supply

Electric

Motor

Drive

Coupling

Pump

Wet End

Bearing

Housing

R1 R2

R3 R4 R5 R6

R7

Discharge

Piping

Process

Plant

R8 R9

Parallel-up for

Decision Making

Parallel-up for

Faultless Operation

Parallel-up for Fault Finding



Cross-Functional Teams Parallel the Members Skills and Knowledge together to Benefit All

Water Supply

Tank

Suction

Piping

Power

Supply

Electric

Motor

Drive

Coupling

Pump

Wet End

Bearing

Housing

R1 R2

R3 R4 R5 R6

R7

Discharge

Piping

Process

Plant

R8 R9

Operator

Fitter

Mechanical

Engineer

Operator

Electrical

Engineer

Electrician

Operator

Mechanical

Engineer

Fitter



Promoting Operator Ownership

When do you know that you ‘own’ a thing?

• When you feel responsibility for its performance• When you are competent in its use• When the ownership is recognised by others• When the support structures in place sustain responsibility



Operator Monitoring and Watch-keepingUse Operators’ senses everyday to identify and monitor the relationships between

things and for any changed conditions

Ouch!



Operators Learn about their Equipment …

By physically using human senses to associate readings to conditions …

Stethoscope Laser Thermometer Touch Thermometer Vibration Pen Boroscope

Operators won’t learn much about what to do to cause reliability in these places …



Operator/Maintainer Watch-keeping Tools

…let operators use low cost tools every day to watch-keep the plant and learn its behaviour

Laser Thermometer

1. Select equipment based on criticality.

2. Determine failure modes and frequency.

3. Specify the 3Ts for the operating conditions.

4. Establish operating condition recording sheets.

5. Specify the frequency of observation.

6. Write ACE 3T SOP to perform the watch-keeping.

7. Specify who to report the problems to.

8. Train people how to check, what to look for, and how to record valuable content.

9. Make the records electronic so they can be trended.

10. Schedule the watch-keeping.

50

60

70

80

90

1 J

un

e

8 J

un

e

15

Ju

ne

22

Ju

ne

29

Ju

ne

6 J

uly

13

Ju

ly

20

Ju

ly

27

Ju

ly

o C



Operator Monitoring and Watch-keeping

Give the Operator Easy and Safe Access to do Watch-keeping

What can the operator watch-keep on this equipment?

Vibration Pen Contact Points

VCM = Vibration Condition Monitoring



Be an Accuracy Controlled Enterprise (ACE)



The Importance and Value of Setting Targets

Nu

mb

er

Range of Outcomes

Tolerance

Good Result

Better Result

Target

Precision

Accuracy

Best Result

TestGood Band

Specification

Best Band

Better Band

Tolerance Range

Fre

qu

en

cy

Targets & Tolerances

Targets, Tolerances and

Tests – the 3Ts of masterly work



The Need for Training in Precision StandardsN

um

ber

of

Peo

ple

Area of Elite

Skills and

Abilities

Non-existent Mean Exceptional

Nu

mb

er

of

Peo

ple

Area of Elite

Skills and

Abilities

Non-existent Mean Exceptional

Training Moves Ability

toward Excellence

Ch

an

ce

of

Eve

nt

Precision Principle

used to meet

Quality Standard

Old process without

Precision Standards

Quality Standard

The effect of quality

control on variation

Outcome



PEW SOLUTION: Accuracy Controlled Expert

Control the quality of each task’s outcome with a Target, a Tolerance, and a Proof Test to confirm task achievement – these are the 3Ts of defect elimination and failure prevention!

A technique for controlling theoutcome of human dependentprocesses is to build feedbackand feed forward loops intothe process that provideinformation to continuallycorrect our actions. These areknown as the 3T’s of failureprevention – ‘Target,Tolerance, Test ’.

No.

Range of Outcomes

Specification

Precision

Accuracy

Precision: having a high degree of exactness

A certain thing and no other, strictly correct in amount

Accuracy: the degree of agreement between a measured value and the

standard value for the measurement

Right, truth, correct, close, without error, acceptable deviation



Accuracy Controlled Enterprise (ACE) 3T

Quality Management System

Industry Best Practices

International Standards New Research

Expert Knowledge

PEW SOLUTION: Use ACE Quality System to Trap Best Knowledge for All to Use Forevermore




Day 2

PWW Processes


• Risk Selection



• Risk Monitoring




Plant Wellness Process 5 - Risk Monitoring and Measuring

•Maintenance records

•Operations records

•Quality System records

•Safety, Health, Environment

records

Measure Number of

Failures, Losses and

Locations

Identify Reliability Key

Performance Indicators for

Process Steps

Process Step Contribution

Map

System – Equipment – Work

Monitor for Reliability

Growth and Improvement



Process Step Contribution Analysis

2 5 61

Inputs Inputs Inputs Inputs

Raw Materials

Customer

Profit Contribution continually falls

Bottleneck

Failures, Losses, Waste Failures,

Losses, Waste

Losses Contribution

Failures, Losses, Waste

$$ $ $

$

$

$

$$$$$$

$$$ $$$

$ $ $3

4

Failures, Losses, Waste



Process Step Contribution Modelling

Process

Step$

$ $ $

$

$$

Local Value

ContributionWaste

Contributions

$$$

Waste

Added

Inputs Boundary

Line around

the Step

Up-stream

Product Cost

Contributions

Added Input Cost

Contributions

Step in and out money flows are used to analyse its profitability

Raw Material Cost + Added Inputs Cost = Value Contribution + Waste Eq. 1

The value contribution is found from equation:

Raw Material Cost + Added Inputs Cost - Waste = Value Contribution Eq. 2

Strangely, from equations 1 and 2, it seems we pay for waste twice, once when we buy it as aninput and second when we throw it away as lost value.



Increase Productivity

•Maximize Resource Availability

•Create a Proactive Maintenance Strategy

Measure what Is Important in Achieving the Goal

Decrease Maintenance Costs

•Optimize Scheduling and Resource Efficiency

•Minimize Rework

Reduce Accidents and Penalties

•Ensure Regulatory Compliance

•Increase Workplace Safety



Asset Management & Business Performance

Reliability Equipment performance data (failure

frequencies)

System configuration

Maintainability Maintenance resources

Shift constraints

Mob delays

Spares constraints

Availability Equipment/System uptime

Operability Plant interdependencies

Plant re-start times

Production/demand rates

Storage Size

Tanker Fleet and Operations

Productivity

Achieved production

Production losses

Criticality

Contract shortfalls

Delayed cargoes

Unit Costs/Revenue Product price

Man-hour/spares costs

Transport costs

Discount rates

NPV Return on Investment

Discounted Total Cashflow

Thanks to Dave Finch for the slide



Hierarchy of Performance Indicators

The only value in measuring your performance is to make sure that you are improving. And if not, then to identify the cause of the poor performance and correct it.

Department & Individual

goals

Site goals

Corporate goals

Thanks to Jim Wardhaugh from the United Kingdom for this concept.

Example KPI Areas

• Return on investment• Regulatory compliance• Revenue generated• Shareholder value added

• Plant availability• Plant integrity• Product margin• Lost time injuries

• Failure rates• Ops & maintenance efficiency• Ops & maintenance effectiveness• Safety audits• Work completion/outstanding

Lagging Indicator

Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Leading Indicator

Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Leading Indicator

Leading Indicator



Adopt the Performance Drivers

Equipment Reliability

• Reliability Centred Maintenance

• Bad Actor Analysis

• Root Cause Analysis

• Risk Based Methodologies

• Precision Maintenance

Process Reliability

• Operating Envelopes

• Corrosion Studies

• Technical Safety Studies

• Common System Safety Studies

• Operating Procedures

Equipment Maintainability

• Life Cycle Costing

• Design Standards

• Plant Modification Procedures

• DAFT Costing

Human Reliability

• Quality Plan

• Training

• ACE 3T Procedures


Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Leading Indicator

Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

Leading Indicator



Cascading objectives that tie directly back to the overall business goals

Targets

Location Downtime = 30 days per year (82% uptime)

Unintended Downtime = 1.8%

Plant Downtime Targets

Plant A 2.5%, Plant B 4%, Plant C 4.5%, Plant D 4.2%

Plant Reliability Targets (Months without forced stop)

Plant A 25, Plant B 17, Plant C 7, Plant D 17

Equipment ReliabilityTargets

• Pumps 3 yrs MTBF

• Compressors 4 yrs MTBF

• Control valves 8 yrs

• Risk based inspection introduced

Process Reliability Targets

• All design envelopes are defined

• All excursions are identified, reported, and implications understood

Equipment Maintainability Targets

• All new pumps purchased will comply with API 682 seal giving 3 years uninterrupted run

Human Reliability Targets

• Operator starts-up pumps

• Operators isolate LV electric motors

• Operators zero check instruments

EXAMPLEPoor Performer

Pacesetter

Comfort Zone




Developing KPIs for Business Processes

• Collect data to identify if a process and its steps are working and to spot opportunities for improvement

Work Order Planning Process

ProcurementMaintenance Supervision Planner

Work Identification Process

An approved request, a plant

modification request or a

follow-up from an inspection

Job Safety

Management

Is a JSA or SWI available

or the job?

Set Work Status

Determine the status of

the work order depending

on the availability of all

requirements to do the job

Technical Details and

Specifications

Identifies any required

technical information and

attaches it to the work

order

Workplace Hazard

Identifies any safety

requirements such as Hot

Work or Confined Space

permits

Purchasing and

Requisition

Checks inventory

stocks for any

required materials

and raises purchase

requisitions for any

non stock items

Identify Services and

Materials

Identifies any requirements

for any external resources,

hire equipment etc and

raises purchase requisitions

as required

Unscheduled Work

Process

Non-urgent work initially

thought to be urgent but

priority was reassessed

Plan to Job Priority

Reviews priority and

impact of delaying

preparation and

procurement to decide

when to plan job

Job Scope-Out

Inspects the job & identify

tasks and materials

required using the task

planning sheet

Job Quality Standards

Identifies the engineering

standards and precision

needed for the required

reliability

Y

N

Work Order Scheduling

Process

The planned work order is

available for scheduling into

the 4-Week Rolling Schedule

Develop JSA

Facilitates the creation of a

JSA

Job Plans and Hours

Identify work front

activities, sequencing,

manning and time needed

to do the job

Work Pack

Compile all documents

together and drew all parts

and materials together

Procurement and Stores

Management

Materials, consumables, parts

purchased and stored safely

and reliably until needed

Conversion Process

INPUTS OUTPUT

Before After

Inputs

Outputs

Inputs

Outputs



Activity – The Cross-Hair Game: Observing Business Process Outcomes

How do you hit the bulls-eye every time?

Cross-hairs and 10 mm diameter

circle

30

0 m

m



‘Cross Hair’ Manufacturing Process Results

108642 Hits inside 10mm Circle

Fre

qu

ency

Pe

rfo

rman

ce R

eq

uir

ed

100

0



PEW SOLUTION: Measure the Business Process’ Statistical Stability and Capability

This is a statistically stable process of breakdown creation –this business makes breakdowns as one of its ‘products’.

Week No

Hours

±3

sig

ma

Too many Major Failures (Outliers)



PEW SOLUTION: Analyse if the Business has a Stable Process of Causing Breakdowns




Day 2

PWW Processes


• Risk Selection



• Risk Monitoring




Plant Wellness Process 6 – Continual Improvement

Precision and Quality

Improvement

Accuracy Controlled

Enterprise

Chance Reduction

Strategy

Quantify Remaining Risk

with DAFT Costing

System – Equipment – Work

5 Whys / Creative

Disassembly / Root

Cause Failure Analysis

Operational – Maintenance

– Design-Out – Precision

Improvements

Monitor for Reliability

Growth and Improvement

Consequence Reduction

Strategy

‘Change to Win’

Program

Find New Answers with

‘Push the Limit’

Strategy

Apply ‘Best Practices’

Identify Suitable Risk

Reduction Strategies

Update Systems and

Processes Business-Wide

and Train People



Control sheet fordaily failure

PM-10 Activity

Investigation meeting

PM-10 Activity

Every morning meeting

Sumitomo Chemicals Failure Management Cycle

Prevention

Decision & Review of method and period PM-10 Activity

Prediction of lifePreventative maintenance

Inspection/measuresInquire cause

Classification

Inquiring cause / investigation of measures

Inquire cause

Register tackled theme for reduction

Improved maintenance

Necessity of continuous investigation

Investigation of measuresand follow-up

LateralDevelopment

Preventreoccurrence

Prevent resemblefailure

Implementation of measures

Improved maintenance

Failure measureimplementation

rate

Follow-up

Failure Occurrence



•Apply to the failure part

•Judge and expose the cause of failure

•Implement the functional test

• Compare/Evaluate difference between

Why - Why Analysis

!!! Exterminate the grave !!!Reduction of Failures

Tackle for extermination of recurrence and resemble failures

Occurrence of grave failure

Analyse failuresDraw up report of failures

Implement counter measure for the drag

Inquire thetrue cause

Clear the cause

Reflection to Maintenance Plan information

Lateral developmentinside the plant

Implementationresults

Decision of lateraldevelopment to all plants

Implement the lateral development to all plants

Draw-up the judgement standard for abnormalities

Investigation meetingof grave failure

Issue the order for lateral development

Sumitomo Chemicals Failure Prevention Cycle



Effect of System Failures Across Life CycleId

ea C

reat

ion

Ap

pro

val

Det

ail D

esig

n

Pro

cure

me

nt

Co

nst

ruct

ion

Co

mm

issi

on

ing

Dec

om

mis

sio

nin

g

~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 17 years) ~ 5%

Pre

limin

ary

Des

ign

Feas

ibili

ty

Op

erat

ion

Dis

po

sal

System Chance

of Failing

Component Chance of

Failing

Process failures during this phase will cause plant and equipment failures in operation.

Equipment Life Cycle (say 20 years)

~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years)



Case Study 1 – A Lifecycle Reliability Growth Cause Analysis (RGCA) Activity

• Do an RGCA on the assembly

Shaft Inner Race Roller Ball LubricantLubricant

R4R2 R3R1 R5



PEW SOLUTION: Reliability Growth Cause Analysis:Creating Operational Reliability by Life Cycle Risk Reduction

Failure Description: ________________________________

Failure Cause: ___________________________________

Frequency of Cause:

Time to Repair:

DAFT Cost:

Causes of Stress/Overload:

Causes of Fatigue/Degradation:

Current Risk Matrix Rating:

Controls to Prevent Cause:

Est. failures prevented after risk controls in use (/yr):

New Risk Matrix Rating:

DAFT Cost savings from higher reliability:

Gauge the effect of the

1) HUMAN FACTORS,

2) BUSINESS PROCESSES,

3) PHYSICAL PROCESSES

AFFECTING EQUIPMENT

4) LATENCY FACTORS

that cause failures…

From Physics of Failure Causes List



Reliability Growth Cause Analysis of a BearingFailure Description: Cracked inner roller bearing race

Failure Cause 1:Excessive interference fit

Failure Cause 2:Impact to race

Frequency of Cause: Early Life – 1 per year Random – 3 per year

Time to Repair: 5 hours 10 hours

DAFT Cost: $20,000 $25,000

Causes of Stress/Overload: Large shaft Small bearing race bore

Abuse when fitting Start-up with equipment fully loaded

Causes of Fatigue/Degradation: Not applicable Misaligned shafts Loose race moving on shaft

Current Risk Matrix Rating: Medium Medium

Controls to Prevent Cause:

Update all bearing fitting procedures to measure shaft and bore and confirm correct interference fit at operating temperature and train people annually

Update all machine procurement contracts include quality check of shaft diameters before acceptance of machine for delivery

Update all bearing procurement contracts to include random inspections of tolerances

Update all design and drawing standards to include proof-check of shaft measurements and tolerances on drawings suit operating conditions once bearing is selected

Update all bearing fitting procedures to include using only approved tools and equipment and train people annually. Purchase necessary equipment, schedule necessary maintenance for equipment

Change operating procedures to remove load from equipment prior restart and train people annually (Alternative: Soft start with ramp-up control if capital available)

Align shafts to procedure and train people annually

Update bearing fitting procedures to measure shaft and bore and confirm correct interference fit at operating temperature and train people annually

Est. failures prevented after risk controls in use (/yr):

All future failures 80% of future failures

New Risk Matrix Rating: Low Low

DAFT Cost savings from higher reliability: $20,000 per year $60,000 per year



PEW SOLUTION: Add Reliability Improvements to Your PM10 Equipment Life Plan Table

PM10 (Preventing Maintenance 10 Year Plan) shows the Strategy to Improve Equipment Reliability



Financial Benefits of Reliable Machines

Machine Rate of Failing(Rate of

Occurrence of Failure)

Total Cost of Ownership $

Old ROCOF

Failure curves for parts are not readily changed without redesign. Once a part is in a machine we are stuck with its characteristic performance, i.e. it will behave as its design allows. However, the failure rate of

machines is completely malleable depending on the applied maintenance policies, the operating polices and the accuracy of manufacture and assembly of parts.

Age of System

New ROCOF

Purchase Price

Purchase Price of ReplacementRenew machine at Tangents



Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA)

What We See

What Caused It

What we see as failure is the end result of failed processes.

RCFA fundamentals• The RCFA process is cause and

effect fault-tree based.• Developing and implementing

solutions uses an expert team.

Finding Evidence and Proof• Operating and maintenance

records and analysis.• Creative disassembly of failed

item(s).• Important to keep accurate

records and history of equipment.

Applying RCFA in the Workplace• Cross-functional team

brainstorming.• The ‘5 Whys’ method is simpler

and usable by the workforce.• Needs operator and maintainer

buy-in for sustained improvement.



•Flowchart•Fishbone Diagram•Timeline Plots•Distribution Histograms•Pareto Charts•FMEA

Failure

Evidence and Proof

Investigation and Understanding

Analysis and Identification

Corrective Action

Implementation

•Interviews•Protect Equipment/Parts•Documents, Records, Diagrams•Creative Disassembly of Parts•Expert Investigation

Process to Use During Equipment Failure RCFA

•Brainstorming•Brain Writing•Is-Is Not Table•Why Tree (Fault Tree Analysis)•5/7 Whys (to test Why Tree)•3W2H

•Evaluation Table•Affinity Diagrams•Relationship Digraph

•Project Management

Understand the physics – science – key factors – progression

Understand interactions and the human element


110www.lifetime-reliability.comww.lifetime-reliability.com

What Level of RCFA to Apply?What do your business procedures say?

•Creative Disassembly

– Individual persons working

on-the-job

– Low cost, little time

– Preventive focus

– “stops the many small causes

that lead to large failures”

– Misses multiple causes

•Root Cause and Effect

– Team of experts in

several meetings

– High cost and time

– “focus on big problems

and you keep having big

problems”

– Identifies wider

perspectives

•Catastrophe Analysis

– Team of experts with

detailed FTA, failure

investigation and

reliability analysis

– Problem of catastrophic

size

– No stone left unturned;

the truth comes out

1

10

30

600

Property Damage

Minor Injuries

Serious Injuries

Incidents

SAFETY ACCIDENTS

1

10 losses

6500 repairs

20,000 defects

Process Losses

Minor Failures

Serious Failure

Procedural Incidents

EQUIPMENT FAILURES

1

10

30

600

Property Damage

Minor Injuries

Serious Injuries

Incidents

EFFECT OF MODERN SAFETY INITIATIVES

Escalate Escalate

The Heinrich Accident Pyramid The Failure Pyramid

Source: Winston Ledet, Manufacturing Game



Human

Latency

Reason

Business

Process

Failure

Reason

Operational

Failure

Reason

Scientific

Failure

Reason

The Cause-Effect Event Tree Stages

Incident

Why

Why Why

Why

Why Why

Why What Latency Issues Remain???



What Chance have You to Find the Real Cause?

What Route did Failure take in the Pump Set?

An Internet search by the Author for causesof centrifugal pump-set failures found 228separate ways for the wet-end componentsto fail, 189 ways for a mechanical seal tofail, 33 ways for the shaft drive coupling tofail and 103 ways for the electric motor tofail. This totals 553 ways for one commonitem of plant to fail.

Motor

DriveCoupling

1

2

PumpFails

Wet End

103

1

2

MechSeal

2

1

2

189

33

228



At Least Identify the Scientific Cause Sequence

Foundation

Failed

Roof

Material

Failed

Column

Material

Failed

Stop

Stop

Stop

Column to

Ground

Connection

Fails

Columns

Tilt

Columns

TumbleRoof Moves

Trailer Hits

Roof

Scientific Event

Sequence

Roof

Fell



How Precision Links to Asset Management

It’s what the people do and how well they do it … that makes for successful asset management! It needs you to design and build a ‘system-of-success’ to deliver the right ‘activities and practices’,

done at the right time, in the right way, to the right quality.

Asset Management: systematic and coordinated activities and practices through which an organization optimally manages its

assets and asset systems, their associated performance, risks and expenditure over their

life cycles for the purpose of achieving its organizational strategic plan

Source: ISO 55001 Asset Management



Precision Maintenance Prevents Failures

Overheating

False Brinelling

Spalling

Uneven Wear

Fretting Corrosion

Electrical Fluting

Smearing

Loaded in Wrong Direction

Lack of Lubricant

Each failure may have one or more dominant modes and we need to find those modes and

model them for each part. The failure curves must represent the situation being investigated if we are

to develop the correct answers.



Know How to Read Machine Health Scales

e.g. Lubrication Solids ISO Contamination Count

12/9/7 23/22/2018/16/1314/13/11

e.g. Roller Bearing IT Fits and Tolerance Accuracy

IT4 IT8IT5 IT6 IT7

GOODBETTERBEST

Perfect Result

World Class Target

Certain Failure

Tolerance Limit

Targ

et

OEM

To

lera

nce

PASS / ACCEPT

FAIL / REJECT



Precision Maintenance Strategy and Methods Stop these Problems Destroying Reliability

12

3

64 5

7

8

910

12

13

11

Electric motor drive end bearing



PEW SOLUTION: Precision Maintenance of Plant, Equipment and Machinery is …

Based on data from petrochemical industry survey, precision alignment practices achieve:· Average bearing life increases by a factor of 8.0.· Maintenance costs decrease by 7%.· Machinery availability increases by 12%.Source: - RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE GUIDE FOR FACILITIES AND COLLATERAL EQUIPMENT - NASA

1. Accurate Fits and Tolerance at Operating Temperature2. Impeccably Clean, Contaminant-Free Lubricant Life-long3. Distortion-Free Equipment for its Entire Life4. Shafts, Bearings, Couplings running true to Centre5. Forces and Loads into Rigid Mounts and Supports6. Laser Accurate Alignment of Shafts at Operating Temperature7. High Quality Balancing of Rotating Parts8. Low Total Machine Vibration 9. Correct Torques and Tensions in all Components10. Correct Tools in the Condition to do the Task Precisely11. Only In-specification Parts12. Failure Cause Removal to Increase Reliability13. Proof that Precision is Achieved14. A system to make all the above happen

Number 14 is the one that the vast

majority of companies miss.

They don’t systemize and

standardize the delivery of

precision to their machinery.



Precision is a Serious Opportunity

mm/s

7.5

6.25

5.0

3.75

2.5

1.25

0

mm/s

7.5

6.25

5.0

3.75

2.5

1.25

0

Machine Vibration to Maintenance Cost

Machine TypeHighest Velocity

mm/s

Dollars Spent

Last Year

Lowest Velocity

mm/s

Dollars Spent

Last Year

Single Stage Pumps 5.6 $3,200 2.0 $650

Multi Stage Pumps 4.8 $6,100 1.5 $1,100

Major Fans & Blowers 9.0 $900 2.8 0

Single Stage Turbines 3.8 $8,200 1.0 $2,000

Other Machines 7.8 $11,850 3.0 $3,700



Precision Domain - A Powerful Business Case

Typical Maintenance Cost $/kW/Year

Typical Maintenance Cost $/kW/Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

Breakdown Maintenance

Condition Based Maintenance

Precision Maintenance

Preventive Maintenance

“For those who do understand the practical, easy-to-implement procedures, they already know that the main results from precision maintenance and machinery improvement are:• Improved machines mean that we can maintain more machines with less people (less non-scheduled - less “putting out fires” - less wrong answers) • Precision maintenance allows all involved, including managers, to have more time to think, to planand to do it right the first time • Precision maintenance not only saves money, but at the same time enables more production outputas the machines considerably increase their run time before failure.”Ralph Buscarello, Update-International, Inc.,Considerations for the Human Aspects to Accomplish or Prevent True Maintenance-Related Machinery Improvement

Source: Update International Inc



Precision Maintenance and Condition Based Maintenance together effectively reduces failure

Can be dramatically reduced

CBM alone

CBM PLUS Precision Skills

Time

? ? ?

Reduced Frequency of Failure

Reduced Infant Mortality Risk

Co

nd

itio

nal

Pro

bab

ility

of

Failu

re

Thanks to Peter Brown from Industrial Training Associates in Australia for this concept.

Failure Elimination ZoneLife Extension Zone



Condition Monitoring Strategy

Strategies for Reliability Improvement

Specification Review.

Root Cause Analysis.

Creative Disassembly.

Precision

Maintenance and

Alignment.

Lubrication

Management

Operator training in

CM and basic

maintenance routines

The Machine – four essentials for reliability

DESIGNSuitability for purpose.

Suitability for

environment

ASSEMBLYMachine Assembly

Machine mounting

Shaft alignment

LUBRICATIONSuitability and

adequacy

Cleanliness

Sealing

OPERATIONProper sequencing

and operation

Cleaning

Condition Monitoring Methods

Performance tests

Performance KPI’s

Vibration Analysis

ThermographyOil AnalysisWear Debris Analysis

Visual Observations

Process control

information

Numerous methods available at all stages of the life cycle

Condition Monitor to Confirm Work Standard

Q U A L I T Y C O N T R O L



PEW SOLUTION: Set and Meet Quality Standards for World Class Reliability

“Only world class standards can produce world class results.”

‘Precise’‘Smooth’‘Tight’‘Dry’‘Clean’‘Cool’‘Repeatable’

Source: Wayne Bissett, OneSteelReliability Manager, Planning and Condition Management Presentation, Sydney, Australia, 2008



Idea

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Co

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Co

mm

issi

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Dec

om

mis

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Equipment Life Cycle (say 25 years)

~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years) ~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 22 years) ~ 5%

Pre

limin

ary

Des

ign

Feas

ibili

ty

Op

erat

ion

Dis

po

sal

PWW Proactively Controls Equipment Health for Outstanding Equipment Reliability

Inspect for

Failure

Inspect for

Failure

Inspect for

Failure

Inspect for

Failure

Inspect for

Failure

Inspect for

Failure

Inspect for

Failure

Inspect for

Failure

Act for Health

Act for Health

Act for Health

Act for Health

Act for Health

Act for Health

Act for Health

Act for Health

Cost to Standard

Design for Standard

Select to Standard

Install to Standard

Inspect for

Standard

Inspect for on-Spec

Inspect for on-Spec

Select to Spec

Set SpecAssume Spec

Assume Spec

Design to Standard

Perf

orm

ance

Plant Wellness Way Health Mon (Feed Forward Control)

Usual Con Mon Practice (Feedback Control)



Elements of Plant Wellness Asset Management

Optimized Asset Life Cycle Utilization

Supply Chain and Inventory Quality

Management

Defect Elimination EquipmentStrategies

Business-Wide Asset

ManagementStewardship

Precision Work Quality Management

Life Cycle Capital

Management

Useful Performance

Measures

Planning andScheduling for

ReliabilityContinual Reliability

Improvement

Precision Maintenance

Precision Operation



Plant and Equipment Wellness

=Chance Reduction +

Proactive Maintenance +

Defect Elimination + Precision Systems +Process Step Value

Contribution



Plant and Equipment Wellness Defined

Is achieved by …

1. Removing variation in outcomes

2. Preventing failure

3. Operational risk control

4. Accuracy controlled work

5. Maximising process step value contribution

“The process of developing and combining engineering assets (the physical factor), financial objectives (the mental factor), human resources (the emotional factor) and organisation culture (the spiritual factor) to produce sustainable, healthy, invigorating and satisfying operating performance.”


The Plant and Equipment Wellness Way · Day 2 PWW Processes •Risk Identification •Risk...

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