The Perfect ProblemThe Perfect Problem

Why climate change is the Why climate change is the “perfect problem”“perfect problem”““complex and inaccessible complex and inaccessible scientific content;scientific content;a substantial (and a substantial (and uncertain) time lag uncertain) time lag between cause and between cause and effect; effect;

Americans and Climate Change

Abbasi, D. Americans and Climate Change, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies 2006.

inertia in all the key drivers of the inertia in all the key drivers of the problem, from demographic growth problem, from demographic growth to long-lived energy infrastructure to to long-lived energy infrastructure to ingrained daily habits at the ingrained daily habits at the household level;household level;

psychological barriers that psychological barriers that complicate apprehension and complicate apprehension and processing of the issue, due in part processing of the issue, due in part to its perceived remoteness in time to its perceived remoteness in time and place;and place;

Americans and Climate Change

partisan, cultural, and other filters partisan, cultural, and other filters that cause social discounting or that cause social discounting or obfuscation of the threat;obfuscation of the threat;

motivational obstacles, especially motivational obstacles, especially the futility associated with what is the futility associated with what is perhaps the quintessential perhaps the quintessential “collective action problem” of our “collective action problem” of our time;time;

Americans and Climate Change

mismatches between the global, mismatches between the global, cross-sectoral scope of the climate cross-sectoral scope of the climate change issue and the jurisdiction, change issue and the jurisdiction, focus, and capacity of exiting focus, and capacity of exiting institutions; institutions;

a set of hard-wired incentives, a set of hard-wired incentives, career and otherwise, that inhibit career and otherwise, that inhibit focused attention and action on the focused attention and action on the issue.” issue.”

Americans and Climate Change

Urgency and Hope Urgency and Hope

• Intergenerational Justice

• Golden Rule and the Moral Insight

• Place Prosperity and Individual Wealth Prosperity

• Alternative Futures

• The Date of Technological Transition

Important facts, figures and Important facts, figures and datesdates

Industrial revolution start date, 1750 Industrial revolution start date, 1750 The concentrations of COThe concentrations of CO2 2 has increased has increased

by 31% since 1750by 31% since 1750 75% comes from the combustion of fossil 75% comes from the combustion of fossil

fuels fuels The current increase in COThe current increase in CO22 is the is the

greatest in at least the last 20,000 years greatest in at least the last 20,000 years By 2100 the concentrations of COBy 2100 the concentrations of CO2 2 will be will be

90-250 percent of preindustrial levels 90-250 percent of preindustrial levels

Important facts, figures and Important facts, figures and datesdates

Estimated temperature increase Estimated temperature increase 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius

Climate surprises: such as the Climate surprises: such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would raise global Sheet, which would raise global sea levels 4-6 meters. sea levels 4-6 meters.

An increase of 2 Celsius from 1990 An increase of 2 Celsius from 1990 levels over the next 100 years levels over the next 100 years places the world at greater risk for places the world at greater risk for catastrophic surprisescatastrophic surprises

(2002 article in (2002 article in ScienceScience by O’Neil and Oppenheimer) by O’Neil and Oppenheimer)

To achieve a fair and effective global response to climate change.

Goal

What constitutes What constitutes a fair response? a fair response? What constitutes a fair response?

What constitutes an What constitutes an effective response? effective response? What constitutes an effective response?

General alternative approaches

• Adaptation

• Mitigation • Adaptation-Mitigation

““The core ethical issue The core ethical issue concerning global warming is concerning global warming is that of how to allocate the costs that of how to allocate the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas and benefits of greenhouse gas emissions and abatement .” emissions and abatement .” (Stephen (Stephen

Gardiner, 578-579)Gardiner, 578-579)

What about harms?What about harms?

Questions of Justice

Varieties of Justice and Varieties of Justice and Climate Global Change Climate Global Change

Distributive JusticeDistributive JusticeMitigation Mitigation Adaptation Adaptation

Procedural Justice Procedural Justice Intergenerational Intergenerational JusticeJustice

Environmental JusticeEnvironmental Justice

Intergenerational Justice (Fairness) Intergenerational Justice (Fairness)

“How and to what extent can the present generation harm future generations?”

“In what ways should the interests of subsequent generations guide present decisions?”

“Given our limited knowledge of people who will live in the future, how should we relate to them under conditions of risk and uncertainty?”

“What motivations should we have for fulfilling our duties to future people, given that we know neither their individual identities nor their particular preferences?”

Intergenerational Justice (Fairness)Intergenerational Justice (Fairness)

The Golden RuleThe Golden Rule

“So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets.” Matt. 7:12

The Moral InsightThe Moral Insight

Treat others as you would treat your future self.

“But simply try to know the truth. The truth is that all the world of life about thee is as real as thou art. Pain is pain; joy is joy, everywhere even as it is in thee. The result of thy insight will be inevitable.”

“Moments of insight, with their accompanying resolutions, long stretches of delusion and selfishness: that is our life.”

““Despite grim warming outlook, Despite grim warming outlook, scientists say there is still hope” scientists say there is still hope”

-- Missoulian -- Missoulian

“I am not about to give up, Hansen wrote. He has hope, he says, because he has grandchildren.”

quoting James Hansen, NASA

The Vision Problem: Imagining Alternative Futures

“I have a dream!” versus

“I have a nightmare!”

“Place prosperity” vs

“Individual wealth prosperity” One way children help create our moral world is by keeping us from becoming too self-absorbed. A key point in moral development is learning to think of the needs of others.

The Date of Technological Transition

“Climate change policy is energy policy”

The date of technological transition is the year in human history in which the accumulated totals of GHGs ceases to grow. “Achieving technological transition will require utilizing current sustainable systems, phasing out fossil fuel systems, retro-fitting and investing in alternative technologies wherever possible.”

Henry Shue, “Responsibility to Future Generations and the Technological Transition”

The Date of Technological Transition

Time

Quantity GHGs

Date of Technological Transition for Society B

Difference inQuantity of GHGs from A & B

Date of Technological Transition for Society A

Physical Dimensions

• “Consuming what remains of fossil fuels could well lead to a four- to eight-fold increase in CO2.”

• At some future point in time it may be impossible to take mitigating efforts.

“There may be harms that will occur only if we do nothing because only if we do nothing will climate change become severe enough to cause those harms (Shue).”

http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/index.html

Ethics and Risk Ethics and Risk

““The really vital issue does not concern The really vital issue does not concern the presence of scientific uncertainty, the presence of scientific uncertainty, but rather how we decide what to do but rather how we decide what to do under such circumstances (Gardiner).” under such circumstances (Gardiner).”

Decisions under conditions of Decisions under conditions of uncertainty (know unknowns (plausible uncertainty (know unknowns (plausible scenarios) and unknowns (surprises)scenarios) and unknowns (surprises)

Climate Change and Climate Change and Intergenerational JusticeIntergenerational Justice

The current generation has a moral The current generation has a moral responsibility to future generations not to responsibility to future generations not to let GHG concentrations exceed critical let GHG concentrations exceed critical limits. limits.

The research and development required for The research and development required for technological transition is a time consuming technological transition is a time consuming process. Delays in starting the process may process. Delays in starting the process may not leave enough time for future generation not leave enough time for future generation to accomplish the task and avoid severe to accomplish the task and avoid severe consequences. consequences.

A Fair Response is an Effective Response

There is a general consensus among scientists that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is on pace to exceed 450 ppm, a level that could result in unpredictable catastrophic events. Therefore, an effective global climate strategy must aim to limit CO2 emissions to a level 450 ppm or less (Athanasiou and Baer).

The Date of Technological Transition

Time

Quantity GHGs

Date of Technological Transition for Society B

Difference inQuantity of GHGs from A & B

Date of Technological Transition for Society A

The moral judgment of future generation on the present generation may be harsh:

“They were not for the most part evil people… but they were simply preoccupied with their own comfort and convenience, not very imaginative about human history over the long run, and not particularly sensitive to the plight of strangers distant in time (Shue, 279).”

Steven Gardiner’s summary of the ethical issues

• Many of the predicted outcomes from climate change seem severe, and some are catastrophic

• For gradual change, either the probabilities of significant danger from climate change are high or we do not know the probabilities; and for abrupt change the probabilities are unknown.

• There is widespread endorsement of the view that stabilizing emission would impose a cost of “only” 2 percent of world production

Stephen Gardiner, “Ethics and Climate Change” Ethics 114 (April 2004): 555-600

““It is people who are now children It is people who are now children and people who are not yet born who and people who are not yet born who will reap most of the benefits of any will reap most of the benefits of any project that mitigates the effects of project that mitigates the effects of global warming.”global warming.”

John Broome, 1992, Counting the Costs of Global Warming