"The Path from ADAS to Autonomy," a Presentation from Strategy Analytics

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STRATEGY ANALYTICS

Roger C. Lanctot – Director, Global Automotive Practice

(617) 614-0714

[email protected]

6th December, 2017

Automated Vehicles: Challenges & Opportunities for 2020

Embedded Vision Alliance

mailto:[email protected]

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TODAY’S AGENDA

Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2017November 2017

ADAS Market Status & Outlook

Autonomous Vehicle Market Dynamics

Conclusions and Q&A

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TODAY’S AGENDA




Conclusions and Q&A

MARKET FORCES AND EVOLUTION

• The Cambrian explosion is the fact that 543M years ago there were 3 animal phyla and 538M years ago there were 38 animal phyla. So in 5M years 35 phyla originated.

• One hypothesis is the Light Switch theory of Andrew Parker which holds that the evolution of eyes intiated an evolutionary arms race among living things.

• The book Driverless” notes that “Armed with a visual system, a responsive body, and a bigger brain, what were once blobs of cells evolved into a diverse set of complex creatures that crawled out of the primoridal ooze and adapted to thrive in a particular niche on land.

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TOTAL ADAS OVER $47B BY 2024

• Best combination of growth/size is in Distance Warning

• AEB is the key feature in that category

• Other emerging systems (e.g. Camera Mirror Replacement) to remain comparatively small

November 2017 Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2017 5

CENTRAL ADAS PROCESSOR

• To remain largely a premium segment solution

• Mass market typically will keep discrete solutions as automated drive functions remain optional features

• Typically requires high-speed on-board network, adding to cost


SENSOR TRENDS

• Ultrasonic • Not going away…yet?• Longer range, higher resolution

• LiDAR• Seen the greatest percentage increase

in 2022 demand• Massive M&A / investment activity• Danger of hype?

• RADAR• Emergence of CMOS-based sensors• Higher-resolutions / frequencies

• Camera• Move to higher resolutions – 8 MP in

the pipeline for forward-looking cameras

• More use of machine vision technology in areas where not commonly applied – e.g. parking / surround view systems

• Growing interest in centralized architectures and processing of “raw” data• But conventional distributed systems

will remain mainstream well into the 2020s


We still expect ALL of camera / LiDAR / RADAR to prosper and growThere will be no sensor “Winner”

CAMERA GROWTH BY TYPE


• Estimate of 11 million cameras used in Trifocal modules (3.7 million modules in 2024)

• Fastest growth from 16-21 in stereo and internal cameras

• Fastest growth from 19-24 in trifocalcameras

RADAR GROWTH BY APPLICATION

• RADARs now starting to be used again in parking applications (e.g. GM)

• Strong growth – but still limited market size. Competition from machine vision and ultrasonic

• Distance warning will be largest application


LIDAR GROWTH ANALYSIS

• Market currently dominated by “Simple” LiDARs for AEB

• Rapid growth expected in next-gen devices for automated driving

• Market still emerging –many technologies not mature


LIDAR MARKET STILL IMMATURE


• Many questions still remain:

Light Source

VCSEL or Not?

905nm or Not?

How many beams?

Single vs. Multishot?

Eye safe?

Beam Steering

None/Flash?

Mechanical?

MEMs?

Optical Phased Array?

Liquid Crystal Waveguide?

Processing

Custom or General Purpose?

Central or On-Sensor?

Who develops and/or owns the

software?

Sensing

Pin Diode?

Avalanche Photo Diode?

Single Photon Avalanche Diode?

Silicon Photomultiplier?

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TODAY’S AGENDA




Conclusions and Q&A

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Q: WHEN IS A CAR NOT A CAR ?


A: When it is fully autonomous


REMEMBER AUTOMOTIVE TIMESCALES

ECOSYSTEM CHALLENGES

• End-user revenue from fully automated driving is ZERO

• This market of zero is re-shaping the value chain

• Biggest challenge is for T1 suppliers• Automakers are increasingly looking to start-ups and non-traditional

suppliers for innovation, as well as developing their own IP and solutions

• Separation of hardware and software. Integration of hardware and software no longer only done by T1 – but also by OEM and engineering services partners

• How can a T1 add value? How can semi vendors enable them in this, while also advancing their competitive position?


A VALUE NETWORK – NOT A CHAIN


Tier 2 Supplier

Tier One Supplier

Car Maker

Mobility Services Provider

Car Maker

Tier 2 Tier 1

Software

Semi Vendor

Cloud

Semi Vendor

Contract Manufac-

turer

Engineering Services

TWO PATHS TO THE GOAL?


Car 2.0

Non-traditional vendors

Traditional vendors

Car 1.1

Car 1.2

Car 1.3

Car 1.n

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CURRENT BIG PLAYERS IN THE MAPPING INDUSTRY

Apple

Baron Weather

Connected Signals

DigitalGlobe

Garmin

Google

HERE

INRIX

Intel (Mobileye REM HD Mapping)

NNG

Sygic

TomTom

Uber (Acquisition of Geometric Intelligence)

Currently, companies that are testing autonomous vehicles such as Waymo(spun out of Google’s research division), Uber, General Motors, and others—have to make their own maps. It’s a painstaking process that requires people todrive vans equipped with sophisticated LiDAR (a combination of lasers andradar) equipment over designated roads in multiple passes to log every curbheight, fire hydrant, and lane marking. As a result, those vehicles are virtuallyfenced in by the pre-mapped region; a Waymo car’s self-driving mode won’teven kick in unless it senses that it’s in a mapped zone.

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START-UP COMPANIESThe following start-up companies are specialist developers of Mapping and Navigation or technologies supporting thedevelopment of high resolution mapping with different techniques such as 3D Mapping, HD Mapping, LiDAR mapping,SLAM, photogrammetry etc.:

Vendor Areas of Interest Vendor Areas of Interest

Arbe Robotics 4D Mapping Mapper 3D Mapping and Localization

Artisense SLAM, Camera, Localization & Navigation technology Naventik Navigation and Localization for AV’s

Carmera Navigation and Mapping Navisens Navigation and Mapping

Civil Maps Navigation and Mapping Otus LiDAR, Localization & Navigation technology

DeepMap LiDAR, Localization & Navigation technology Point One Navigation GPS, Localization and Navigation technology

Gobotix Navigation and Mapping Robosense LiDAR, Localization & Navigation technology

KAARTA Navigation and Mapping Slamtec LiDAR, Localization & Navigation technology

lvl5, Inc 3D Mapping and Localization Swift Navigation Navigation and Mapping

Mapbox Navigation and Mapping Ushr Navigation and Mapping

Mapillary Navigation and Mapping Xenomatix LiDAR, Localization & Navigation technology

Machines with Vision Navigation and Localization for AV’s

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TODAY’S AGENDA




Conclusions and Q&A03

CONCLUSIONS

• Outside of “connected car” – most automotive electronics growth is coming from ADAS/Autonomous and Electrified Powertrains

• Significant challenges to carmakers• Is the automated car a “car”?• Mass-market 2020 challenge is NOT L4 – but ADAS and/or L2• Electrified is a bigger 2020 challenge than automated

• Emergence of new value “network”• Car makers will need to manage transition well• Car makers simultaneously more important compared to existing

automotive supply base - but less important as industry “digitalizes”• New entrants typically have large cash piles generated in other industries


WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO ME?

• Need for safety drives sensor adoption – Cameras!

• More cameras = more information/data + more software

• More data/software = need for faster in-vehicle network throughput + software updates + security

• Need for software updates/security = need for connectivity

• Connected and increasingly autonomous car = mobility as a service

• Mobility as a service = new forms of customer acquisition, interaction, engagement and, maybe, retention

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Car-mbrian Explosion

NEW PHYLA: AUTO TONOMOUS, ROBO TAXIS

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Any Questions?


Roger C. Lanctot

[email protected]

@rogermud

"The Path from ADAS to Autonomy," a Presentation from Strategy Analytics

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Transcript of "The Path from ADAS to Autonomy," a Presentation from Strategy Analytics