The Outlook for Energy EO... · 1990 2015 2040 Global Progress and Energy Demand ... 2000 2020 2040...

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes

in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future

Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission

of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

New York Energy Forum

June 11, 2013

Tom Eizember, Corporate Strategic Planning

As societies and technologies develop over time…

… energy needs evolve as well

Economic and Energy Evolution

Population

Billion

Population Trends Impacts Energy Use

Fertility Rate*

Children per Woman

Global Demographics*

Billion

* Source: World Bank & United Nations

0

3

6

9

2010 2020 2030 20400

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OECD

Africa

China

India

Southeast Asia

Latin America

0

3

6

9

2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD

Other

Non OECD

China

India

Africa

Age 0-14

Age 65+

Age 15-64

Energy Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 – 2040

1.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Energy Saved

~500

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

Global Progress and Energy Demand

Billion

Population GDP

Trillion 2005$


2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.8%

OECD

Non OECD

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

25

50

75

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD

Trillion 2005 $

OECD GDP

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD Demand

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD


Non-OECD

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 20400

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian

Trillion 2005 $

Non OECD GDP

Quadrillion BTUs

Non OECD Demand


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity

Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Quadrillion BTUs

2010

2025

2040

Demand by Sector

2010

2025 2040

Industrial

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Industrial Energy Demand

Chemicals

Manufacturing &

Industry

Energy Industry

Other

Plastics

Fertilizer

Paint

Steel

Automobiles Textiles

Liquid

Fuels

Coal Natural Gas

Agriculture

Lubricants Asphalt

Quadrillion BTUs


Industrial Energy Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2020 2040

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity

Oil

Gas

Renewables

Coal

By Region

Quadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2020 2040

OECD

China

India

Rest of

Non

OECD

Market Heat

Residential / Commercial

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2020 2040

Fuel Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity

Coal

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Other

Residential/Commercial Outlook

Residential Energy Intensity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2020 2040

Million BTUs per Person

Japan

North America

Europe OECD

China

India

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2020 2040

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

Commercial

Residential


Transportation Sectors

Light Duty Vehicles

Cars

SUVs

Pickup

Trucks

Heavy Duty Vehicles

18-wheelers

Buses

Delivery

Trucks


Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2020 2030 2040

Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains

Miles per Gallon

Powertrain

Body & Accessories

Vehicle Size

Hybrid

Average

27 MPG

47 MPG

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040

Elec/PHV

Full Hybrid

Natural Gas

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

Annual New Car Sales by Type

Million Cars


0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD

China India Middle East LatinAmerica

Other NonOECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2010

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD

China India Middle East LatinAmerica

Other NonOECD

PHV/EV

Full Hybrid

CNG

LPG

Diesel Conv

Mogas Conv

2040

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency

0

15

30

45

2010 2025 2040

Demand w/o Efficiency Demand

Efficiency Impact

MBDOE

0

15

30

45

60

75

'10-'25 '25-'40 Other

New Truck Efficiency

% Improvement, 2010-2040

Technology

Powertrain

Body

Powertrain

Body

Hybrid

Regional

Impact

Logistics &

Congestion

Truck

Size


Gas Into Transportation

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

By Sector

BCFD

Light

Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

2040 by Region

BCFD

0

2

4

6

8

10

AP NA LA ME EU RC AF


Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040

MBDOE

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil NaturalGas

Other

Non OECD

OECD

Transportation Fuel Mix

0

15

30

45

60

75

2000 2020 2040

Fuel Demand

MBDOE

Diesel

Gasoline

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

Other

Natural Gas


Electricity Generation

Electricity Demand by Region

Non OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2020 2040

Thousand TWh

Middle East

Southeast Asia

Russia/Caspian

Other Non OECD

China

Africa

India

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2020 2040

Thousand TWh

North America

Europe OECD

Other OECD

OECD


Baseload, Startup 2030

0

4

8

12

16

Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind*

UtilitySolar PV*

2012 cents/kWh

*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission

$60/ton of CO2

$0/ton

Choices for U.S. Electricity

Reliability

Cost



Quadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

OECD

Non OECD

Electricity Generation by Region


-30

0

30

60

90

120

Non OECD OECD

Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Oil

Nuclear

Gas

Renewables

Coal


Quadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

Oil

Nuclear

Gas

Renewables

Coal

Electricity Generation by Region


-30

0

30

60

90

120

Non OECD OECD

Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Oil

Nuclear

Gas

Renewables

Coal

Supply

Liquids Supply

MBDOE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Supply by Type

Other Liquids

Biofuels

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2040

Resource*

TBO

Conventional

Crude & Condensate

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Remaining

Resource

Cumulative

Production

* Source: IEA

1930s

1940s 1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

0

20

40

60

80

100

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Global Oil Production by Discovery Date

Discovered before 1930

Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data

MBDOE

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

Natural Gas Supply

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

Conventional

BCFD

North America

BCFD

Europe Asia Pacific

BCFD

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

Pipeline


Total Energy Demand

Non OECD

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Biomass

Other Renewables

Oil

Nuclear

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Coal

Gas

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040


0

5

10

15

20

China India U.S. Europe0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

CO2 Emissions

Billion Tons

By Region Tons per Person Emissions per Capita

‘10

‘25

‘40

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

India

China


Development Challenges and Solutions

World development continues - lives improve and economies grow

~9 billion people

130% increase in global GDP

30% increase in energy demand

500 quadrillion BTUs saved

through efficiencies

All reliable, affordable energy

supplies needed

www.exxonmobil.com

The Outlook for Energy EO... · 1990 2015 2040 Global Progress and Energy Demand ... 2000 2020 2040...

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Transcript of The Outlook for Energy EO... · 1990 2015 2040 Global Progress and Energy Demand ... 2000 2020 2040...