The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be...
Transcript of The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be...
![Page 1: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Oilfield in 2020The 10 questions you should be asking yourself
Richard SpearsSpears & Associates
![Page 2: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
18%
-15%
8%
19%
12%8% 9%
-27%-32%
6%9%
0%
7%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Global Oilfield Annual Percentage Change
![Page 3: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
$160,000
$200,000
Mill
ion
sMarkets By Type - OMR Historical
Exploration Drilling Completion
Production Cap Eqpt & OS
![Page 4: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
How influential is Greta Thunberg?
![Page 5: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
How influential? Oh! Canada?
5
![Page 6: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The hypocrisy of climate fear mongers
![Page 10: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The hypocrisy of climate fear mongers
![Page 11: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Climate emergency: we’re all gonna die! No compromise!
![Page 12: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
How influential is Greta Thunberg?
She represents hypocritical oil opponents who are bad at both physics AND economics and who see no reason to compromise because we’re all gonna die!
![Page 13: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Can my President & your Prime Minister stop frac?
![Page 14: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
This is what the oil industry calls “frac”
![Page 15: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
This is what everybody else calls “frack”
![Page 16: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
They are against the ENTIRE industry
![Page 17: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
All are against “fracking”
![Page 18: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
All are against “fracking”18
![Page 19: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
All are against “fracking”19
![Page 20: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
And if he/she does stop frac, what next?
![Page 21: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution
![Page 22: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution
![Page 23: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Is 2019 like 1982? Or 1986? 1992? 1999? 2002? 2009? 2015/2016?
![Page 24: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Consider this:
Demand Growing?
OFS Healthy? Limited Oil?
1982 No No No
1986
1992
1999
2002
2009
2015/16
2019
![Page 25: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Consider this:
Demand Growing?
OFS Healthy? Limited Oil?
1982 No No No
1986 Yes No No
1992 Yes No No
1999 No No No
2002 Yes Yes No
2009 No No No
2015/16 Yes No No
2019
![Page 26: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Consider this:
Demand Growing?
OFS Healthy? Limited Oil?
1982 No No No
1986 Yes No No
1992 Yes No No
1999 No No No
2002 Yes Yes No
2009 No No No
2015/16 Yes No No
2019 Yes No Yes
Investors convinced oil
is finished
So no extra oil doesn’t
matter
![Page 27: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
How “gone” are institutional investors?
![Page 28: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
SLB – the darling of Wall Street – is worse than ‘16
![Page 29: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Should oil companies be worried?
![Page 30: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Should oil companies be worried?
This is the battle of the balance sheet. Positive cash flow wins…it is the only metric.
![Page 31: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Should service companies be worried?
![Page 32: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Should service companies be worried?
This is the battle of the balance sheet. Positive cash flow wins…it is the only metric.
![Page 33: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Is “factory drilling” the right metaphor?
![Page 34: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Is “factory drilling” the right metaphor?
What would an industrial engineer say if “SPEED” was the primary metric being measured?
![Page 35: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Canada New Wells Drilled
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US New Wells Drilled
![Page 36: The Oilfield in 2020 - Sequeira Partners · The Oilfield in 2020 The 10 questions you should be asking yourself Richard Spears Spears & Associates rspears@spearsresearch.com](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070702/5e686a62cd9a2f1fe710ccd6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
About UsSpears & Associates is a research-based market consultancy working worldwide from Tulsa and
now Ft. Worth and Houston since 1965.
Spears “insiders” receive free:
• Weekly podcast.
• Weekly market analytics briefing document.
• Periodic YouTube video of market conditions.