The Next Twenty Years of Hiring and Beyond: Finding and Fitting the Right Person

to the Right Job(a research-based discussion)

Wayne Hochwarter, Ph.D.Florida State University

November 15, 2006

Questions to ponder• Where are you going to find the

accountant you’ll need in 2009?• Where are you going to find the IS

technician you’ll need in 2011?• Where are you going to find the

mechanic you’ll need in 2012• Where are you going to find the CFO

you need to replace the current one who is retiring in 2013?

Have you begun to prepare for the pending

labor shortage? Have others? Has it been at

least discussed?

Today’s Schedule (more or less)

• Discuss the nature and magnitude of the pending labor shortage

• Describe participation of selected demographic categories (certainly not all)

• Try to get in the head of college graduates

• Recommendations for workforce development

Commonly left on my answering machine at the office

“Do you know of anyone who graduated a year or two back in accounting””

“I need someone who wants to work hard, we’ll pay them well, but it’s pretty hard…know anybody?”

“I need someone who has five or six years of experience, the major isn’t important?”

“I need twenty employees to work on the line, the pay is pretty good.”

”I can’t do any more for these people”“Doesn’t anybody want to work anymore?”

Data Predicting the Problem

In 1978, our workforce growth rate was 3.5 percent. By 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics

projects the rate to be 1 percent.

Data Predicting the Problem

• By 2010, we will have 167,754,000 skilled jobs to fill in the United States alone.

• By 2010 we will have only 157,721,000 people in the workforce to fill those jobs.

10,000,000 is a lot

Workplace Fact 1 •36,000,000 employees•Average $36 per hour•50 minutes per workday•Cost to companies: $1.1 billionWhat am I talking about?

Between 2000 and 2050, the average growth rate for these

groups is expected to be:

16 to 24 year olds ________%25-54 year olds ________%55 and older ________%Women ________%Men ________%

Between 2000 and 2050, the average growth rate for these

groups is expected to be:

16 to 24 year olds .6%25-54 year olds .4%55 and older 1.4%Women .7%Men .6%

In the year 2030, one in four Americans will be…?

Over 65

The 50 and older population from 2000-2050 will

grow at a rate 68 times faster than the rate of growth for the total population

What percent of the working population will reach retirement age

by 2010?

30%

At the same time…

The replacement pool of 35 to 40 year olds

will decline by 15 percent

Specifically, Giveth a little, taketh away a lot…

By 2020, the number of young adult workers, from 25 to 40 year olds, will DECLINE by 1.7 million. That's 1.7 million less workers to replace the nearly 77 million baby boomers who will be eligible for retirement.

Within the next ten years…

18,000,000 (Jobs/BA,BS)-11,000,000 (Graduates)

7,000,000 (shortage)

Is that the end of it?

Jobs in greatest demand the

next ten years

What do these jobs need?Advanced training, right?

•Home health aides •Network systems and data communications analysts •Management•Physician assistants •Computer software engineers •Physical therapist assistants •Accounting•Computer software engineers •Dental assistants •Personal and home care aides

What kind of picture does this paint?

• 52% of high school graduates lack the basic skills required to do their jobs adequately; only 25% are considered to have excellent skills. Source: Adult Literacy Survey

• Employers estimate that 39 percent of their current workforce and 26 percent of new hires will have basic skills deficiencies. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Students in the United States finished in the bottom of mathematics skills when compared to students in 40 surveyed countries. Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

• Sixty-two percent of HR professionals reported difficulties hiring workers with the skills essential for a 21st century workforce. Source:  SHRM - 2005 Future of the U.S. Labor Pool

The Myth About HomeworkThink hours of slogging are helping your

child make the grade? Think again

According to a national survey of 2,900 American children conducted by the

University of Michigan, the amount of time spent on homework is up 51% since 1981.

Teachers in many of the nations that outperform the U.S. on student

achievement tests--such as Japan, Denmark and the Czech Republic--tend to

assign less homework than American teachers, but instructors in low-scoring countries like Greece, Thailand and Iran

tend to pile it on.

There are social problems as well

If you come from a family earning over $96,000 a year, your

odds of getting a bachelor's degree by age 24 are 1 in 2.  If

you come from a family earning under

$36,000, it's 1 in _____.

A. 4B. 8C. 17

Workplace Fact 2

Married couples with a working dad,

stay-at-home full time Mom, and kids

living with two biological parents. What percent of

households? 9

33 25

18 15

Enough Already…In Sum• The labor force is expected to grow,

albeit at a modest pace.• We need new workers to address this

growth, and there really aren’t that many new ones showing up (i.e., 16-24 year olds).

• Many of the 16-24 year olds don’t have the skills to contribute.

• Also, millions of current employees are packing up their offices.

I have a great idea, let’s keep the older employees

around longerDo older employees want to stick around?

• It’s something to do.• The company is making it worth my while

financially.• I know the company• I don’t really have much else to do a this

point.• Health insurance1,000,000

Do we have enough dough to last the next 3o years? No. Get back to work!!

Will I still be able to play my violin now and then?

If Mick can do it, so can we...

What’s the downside??• The best ones are long gone.• Skills obsolescence.• Resistance to change • Need lots of flexibility (kids, grandkids,

elder parents/relatives, medical).• Caregiver costs are incredibly high• Costly (15% of population is > 65, ½

hospital stays, ½ doctor’s visits; more chronic conditions).

More Questions1. Keeping older employees around a

little longer is the solution, right?2. Women are working more, they

can fill in the gap when shortages surface, right?

3. What about minorities/immigration?

Answers in no particular order

1.Sorta2.Sorta3.Sorta

Workplace Fact 3

For dual career couples with kids

under 18, the combined work

hours grew from 81 a week in 1977 to 94 in

2006

What About…?

What the heck is a twixter??

Think about the last college graduate you hired (tried to

hire):• What was the job?• What KSAs went along with the job?• What type of applicants did you attract?• Did they seem to possess the KSA you

were looking for?• What did they seem to want out of a

job?• Who did you hire? How did they do?

Here is how the Class of 2006 sees the world

•A Southerner has always been President of the United States.

•South Africa's official policy of apartheid has not existed during their lifetime.

•We have always been able to choose our long distance carriers.

•Weather reports have always been available 24-hours a day on television.

•Big Brother is merely a television show.

•George Foreman has always been a barbecue grill salesman.

•The "Fab Four" are not a male rock group, but four women enjoying Sex and the City.

•This generation has never wanted to "be a Pepper too.

•Sylvan Learning Centers have always been an after-school option.

•Thongs no longer come in pairs and slide between the toes.

Tim graduated with a finance degree from FSU this year and has sent you his application and resume. Describe “Tim” based on your experiences with recent grads.

Good1. ________________2. ________________3. ________________4. ________________

Not as Good1. ________________2. ________________3. ________________4. ________________

Here’s mine:Good

1. Adaptable2. Eager to Learn3. Technically Savvy4. Empathetic/ Worldly5. Good Personal

Skills

Not as Good1. Need immediate

gratification/impatient2. Overly cynical3. Lack subtleties/

interpersonal skill4. Preoccupied with

what’s next5. Me, me, me, me

How’d they get to this point?

1. Look after themselves (layoffs of friends and family)

2. They don’t trust others to take care of them (Enron, religious and political leaders). Faith is missing.

3. MTV/Video games (Instant gratification)

4. Mom and Dad were around…a lot?

The role that many of us educators are expected to take…

Did you know??

An FSU student can live only seven seconds without

his/her?

A cockroach can live for up to a week without its head.

Told you they were around a lot…

                                      

                                 

What is the History - 1950

1. Safety2. Work close to

home3, Life

insurance/health insurance

4. Good equipment 5. Pension

Those from the 1950 list on Today’s list

1. Safety2. Work close to home3. Life insurance/health

insurance4. Good equipment 5. Pension

Fast Forward - 20071. Interesting Work

2. Recognition3. Rapid career

growth/advancement4. Financially strong org.5. People oriented 6. Flexibilityhttp://www.incentivemag.com/msg/content_display/publications/

e3imeuHRUvB6kEt4VoJGf4OyA%3D%3D

Almost afraid to ask…•Why one company rather than another?

•My perfect job …”•Hours? Traditional schedule?

•Best out of you?•When is it time to leave?

They don’t want to hear it?

“We have an excellent pension plan here”“Most of our employees have been here

forever”“After three years, you can apply for our

flexibility initiative”“Once you find your niche, you can do the

same thing for years”“After ten years, you’ll be eligible for

three weeks vacation”

Do they say what they mean? Some of the time

“I can figure it out on my own…where are you?”“Money doesn’t matter...how much was Sam’s raise?”“Money matters …I’d rather have flexibility”“I’m not growing … you’re throwing too much at me”

Be Prepared to Answer These

Will I be able to pick those in my work

group?

Will I be respected here?

What do you people do for fun around

here?

How much do I absolutely have

to be here?

Where am I going to be in 3 years? Will you write

that down?

How often will my technology be

replaced?

Workplace Fact 4

Americans receive ___ vacation days each year. Italians

receive 42; the French, 37;

Germans, 35, and South Korean and

Japanese employees get 25 each.

16

Millennial Bounce Around Facts and Realities

• The grass is always greener, both now and then. The ear is always to the ground.

• They bounce around because they can (growing up later)

• Census figures show that 56 percent of men and 43 percent of women ages 18 to 24 today live with one or both parents.

• An estimated 65 percent of recent college graduates have moved back in with their parents.

Help is always near…which I’m

not sure is a good thing

              

              

              

              

Managing these entrants will be extremely

challenging• What brings them in doesn’t necessarily

keep them in.• Each works for a unique combination of

reasons• You can expect the level of conflict/stress

to continue to increase, especially if you plan on retaining older employees

The Scourge of the Entitlement Generation

The work ethic of new entrants into the labor market is under assault. The "Entitlement Generation" - those born between 1979 and 1994 - have been described as impatient, self-serving, disloyal, unable to delay gratification - in short, feeling that they are entitled to everything without working for it.

But is this perception justified? Wayne Hochwarter, a professor of management in Florida State University's College of Business, recently conducted a study to see if the perception of entitlement exists in organizations and, if it does, how it affects employees at work.

His research, which examined the attitudes of nearly 600 employees across a wide range of occupations, suggests that perceptions of entitlement are alive and well in many companies.

For example, Hochwarter found that half (55 per cent) of workers believe that many employees act as if they are more deserving than others at work without "paying their dues".

What are you currently doing? Do you have any

ideas?1. ______________________________2. ______________________________3. ______________________________4. ______________________________5. ______________________________

Actual Quotes

“I want to know what’s going on, I want to be in on things”

“I don’t want work to be drudgery, I want to laugh and spend time socializing with my co-workers”

“If I have some ideas that can help, I want them to be heard”

“I have concerns with the 9-5 thing, especially here in Orlando”

“I want to learn how to do cool things”“Not gonna lie to you, pay is important”

Actual Quotes

“Where is the next cool wave to ride here?”“I want to be able to fit work and family life”“I want to make the community better”“I want to know that I’m doing something good, I

want some kind of recognition”“If I have problems, I want someone to understand

and help”“I want to be kind of left alone”“I’ll pay my dues, but not as many dues as my

parents did”

Actual Quotes

“I like to have more than one ball in the air at a time”

“I want to be taken seriously, especially by older employees”

“If the workplace is negative, I’m gone”“It would be nice if I was considered a

person, not just a worker”“I want a place where I can speak my mind”

Concluding Statements

and Questions

Thank you very much for the invitation to visit