The Next Distruptive Technology
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Transcript of The Next Distruptive Technology
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THE NEXT DISRUPTIVE
TECHNOLOGYHOW AUTONOMOUS CARS WILL FUNDAMENTALLY RESHAPE OUR
CITIES, AND WHY IT SHOULD MATTER TO YOU.
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Jason Sudy, AICP
Founder, Principal
Side Street Planning
Justin Robbins, AICP
Senior Planner
OHM Advisors
Rick Stein, AICP
Founder, Principal
Urban Decision Group
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TODAY’S MESSAGE:
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AS A PLANNING-RELATED
PROFESSIONAL:
• WHAT SHOULD YOU BE DOING TODAY?
• WHAT WILL YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS?
• HOW DO WE PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE?
• WE MUST BE THINKING ABOUT THIS NOW!
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HISTORY OF CITY
DEVELOPMENT
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PRE-1940SSITE DEVELOPMENT - UNITED STATES TYPICAL
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POST-WARAUTOMOBILE-ORIENTED
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POST-WARSITE DEVELOPMENT - SUBURBS
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POST-WARSITE DEVELOPMENT AUTO-DOMINATED SITES
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• ROADWAY NETWORKS
• NEIGHBORHOOD PLANNING
• SITE DESIGN
THIS IS OUR CHANCE…TO UNDO OUR PAST MISTAKES.
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HOW WILL THIS IMPACT…
EVERYTHING?
• Insurance industry
• Health insurance – drastically fewer
accidents and youth deaths
• Need for increased communications
technology
• Hacking dangers of on-board
computers
• Overall economy
• Lost industries
• Land prices re-evaluated when parking
demand shrinks
• Automotive industry
• Public transportation
• Commercial drivers
• Taxi & Uber
• Bus and train
• Commercial hauling
• Automotive companies –
volume of vehicles needed per
year?
• Automotive workers – volume
of vehicles needed per year?
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U.S. Motor Vehicle Crash Information
CURRENT DRIVING REALITIESENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION
PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (2013)
Total Crashes per year in US 5.5 million
% human cause as primary factor 93%
Economic Costs of U.S. Crashes $300 billions
% of U.S. GDP 2%
Total Fatal & Injurious Crashes per Year in U.S 2.22 million
Fatal Crashes per year in U.S. 32,367
Source: ENO table - U.S. Crash Motor Vehicle Scope and Selected Human and Environmental Factor Involvement
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Estimates of Annual Impacts from AVs in the United States
ESTIMATED AV IMPACTSENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION
PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (2013)
Source: ENO table - Estimates of Annual Economic Benefits from AVs in the United States
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IMPACTS FOR PLANNING
• Site Design
• Corridor / neighborhood design and planning
• Community-wide comprehensive and strategic planning
• Land Use
• Zoning Codes and guidelines
• Public Realm design
• Transportation systems
• Active transportation impacts – pedestrians and bicyclists
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POTENTIAL UNKNOWNS
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POTENTIAL ADOPTION MODELS?
INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP
Likely scenarios / adopters
• Exurban and low-density suburban
• Older demographic
SHARED OWNERSHIP
Likely scenarios / adopters
• Denser urban environments
• Younger demographic
• Current ride service users
• App-based ride service (think driverless-UBER)
• Could be subscription or individual ride pricing model
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NEW WAY TO THINK ABOUT
TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS:
• You buy mobility, and not
machines!
• Transportation as a
service, rather than an
ownership model
ADOPTIONPOTENTIAL APPROACHES
Source: Barclays Research Insights on Disruptive Mobility (2015)
– Barclays Bank PLC
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WHERE AND HOW FAST
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CUYAHOGA – 1,255,730
FRANKLIN – 1,217,853
HAMILTON – 806,883
SUMMIT – 541,227
MONTGOMERY – 532,757
LUCAS – 434,882
STARK – 376,401
BUTLER – 373,646
15 MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES
IN OHIO
LORAIN – 302,925
MAHONING – 232,411
LAKE – 230,383
WARREN – 223,171
TRUMBULL – 205,170
CLERMONT – 202,685
DELAWARE – 189,340
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• PARCEL DATA – LAND USE
• TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE & USAGE CHARACTERISTICS
• COMMUTING CHARACTERISTICS
• HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
• BUSINESS & SERVICE CHARACTERISTICS
• POPULATION BY AGE AND DENSITY
• INCOME CHARACTERISTICS
WHERE AND HOW FAST?
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* STRONG CORRELATION WITH LOCATION OF UNIVERSITIES
ADOPTION READINESS (TODAY)
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2020 – CITIES WITH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LEVEL 2 TRAFFIC
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• OWNERSHIP MODEL MORE WIDELY ADOPTED ON A
GEOGRAPHIC SCALE
• SHARED MODEL LIKELY TO HAVE MORE USERS (LONG-TERM)
• HYBRID OF THE MODELS IS MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
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IMPACTS
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TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT “RULES”
TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS:• 3-5 parking spaces per 1,000 square feet
• Results in 40% of land needed for surface parking
• Expect to get 10,000 square feet of commercial floor area per acre.
• Other 33,000 s.f. of site area used for parking, circulation, storm,
setbacks.
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HILLIARD-ROME / I-270
INTERSECTION
109 ACRES
FREEWAY-
ORIENTED SITE
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NEW DEVELOPMENT “RULES” ?
DEVELOPMENT KEY POINTS:
• Parking is THE major constraint on development
• Development will be free from parking constraints
• The old rules of development will be obsolete
• Enormous increase in developable land
• Urban areas will become denser
• Suburban areas could expand
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MUST CONSIDER FUTURE REALITIES WHILE ADDRESSING IMMEDIATE NEEDS :
• Can garages pay for themselves when the economic model flips?
• If long-term public financing?
• Can we locate in key areas to be compatible with high AV usage?
DOWNTOWN DISTRICTSPARKING STRATEGY – DEVELOPMENT AND GARAGES
Source: Franklin County Convention Facilities Authority
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• TYPICAL URBAN NEIGHBORHOOD STREET
• ON-STREET PARKING SPACES IN 8-9 FOOT LANE
• IF LITTLE OR NO ON-STREET PARKING NEEDED, REPURPOSE
STREETS:• Stormwater controls
• Recreation
• Narrowing
• Buildable?
STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS
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• TYPICAL TRADITIONAL
NEIGHBORHOOD:
• On-street parking, one or both
sides of most streets
STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS – GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS, OHIO
Source: City of Grandview Traffic Advisory Plan
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• POTENTIAL AREA TO
“RECLAIM”:
• Approx 30 miles of parking
lanes
• Generally 8’ lane width
• Result in this one city for local
roads only = 1.3 million square
feet (30 acres)
STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS – GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS, OHIO
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STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS
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WHAT SHOULD PLANNERS
BE DOING?
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1. MAINSTREAM THE DISCUSSION
2. SET POLICY OBJECTIVES
3. START PLANNING DIFFERENTLY
• Site design
• Roadway design
• Land use
• Neighborhood planning
• Comprehensive planning
• Regional infrastructure systems
• Prioritize public investment
PLANNING IMPERATIVES
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• WE NEED TO THINK BIG
• THE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSFORMATION IS COMING
• WE NEED TO BE PREPARED.
BIG IDEAS…
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THANK YOU.
QUESTIONS?