The Next Distruptive Technology

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THE NEXT DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY HOW AUTONOMOUS CARS WILL FUNDAMENTALLY RESHAPE OUR CITIES, AND WHY IT SHOULD MATTER TO YOU.

Transcript of The Next Distruptive Technology

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THE NEXT DISRUPTIVE

TECHNOLOGYHOW AUTONOMOUS CARS WILL FUNDAMENTALLY RESHAPE OUR

CITIES, AND WHY IT SHOULD MATTER TO YOU.

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Jason Sudy, AICP

Founder, Principal

Side Street Planning

Justin Robbins, AICP

Senior Planner

OHM Advisors

Rick Stein, AICP

Founder, Principal

Urban Decision Group

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TODAY’S MESSAGE:

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AS A PLANNING-RELATED

PROFESSIONAL:

• WHAT SHOULD YOU BE DOING TODAY?

• WHAT WILL YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS?

• HOW DO WE PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE?

• WE MUST BE THINKING ABOUT THIS NOW!

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HISTORY OF CITY

DEVELOPMENT

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PRE-1940SSITE DEVELOPMENT - UNITED STATES TYPICAL

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POST-WARAUTOMOBILE-ORIENTED

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POST-WARSITE DEVELOPMENT - SUBURBS

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POST-WARSITE DEVELOPMENT AUTO-DOMINATED SITES

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• ROADWAY NETWORKS

• NEIGHBORHOOD PLANNING

• SITE DESIGN

THIS IS OUR CHANCE…TO UNDO OUR PAST MISTAKES.

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HOW WILL THIS IMPACT…

EVERYTHING?

• Insurance industry

• Health insurance – drastically fewer

accidents and youth deaths

• Need for increased communications

technology

• Hacking dangers of on-board

computers

• Overall economy

• Lost industries

• Land prices re-evaluated when parking

demand shrinks

• Automotive industry

• Public transportation

• Commercial drivers

• Taxi & Uber

• Bus and train

• Commercial hauling

• Automotive companies –

volume of vehicles needed per

year?

• Automotive workers – volume

of vehicles needed per year?

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U.S. Motor Vehicle Crash Information

CURRENT DRIVING REALITIESENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION

PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (2013)

Total Crashes per year in US 5.5 million

% human cause as primary factor 93%

Economic Costs of U.S. Crashes $300 billions

% of U.S. GDP 2%

Total Fatal & Injurious Crashes per Year in U.S 2.22 million

Fatal Crashes per year in U.S. 32,367

Source: ENO table - U.S. Crash Motor Vehicle Scope and Selected Human and Environmental Factor Involvement

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Estimates of Annual Impacts from AVs in the United States

ESTIMATED AV IMPACTSENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION

PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (2013)

Source: ENO table - Estimates of Annual Economic Benefits from AVs in the United States

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IMPACTS FOR PLANNING

• Site Design

• Corridor / neighborhood design and planning

• Community-wide comprehensive and strategic planning

• Land Use

• Zoning Codes and guidelines

• Public Realm design

• Transportation systems

• Active transportation impacts – pedestrians and bicyclists

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POTENTIAL UNKNOWNS

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POTENTIAL ADOPTION MODELS?

INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP

Likely scenarios / adopters

• Exurban and low-density suburban

• Older demographic

SHARED OWNERSHIP

Likely scenarios / adopters

• Denser urban environments

• Younger demographic

• Current ride service users

• App-based ride service (think driverless-UBER)

• Could be subscription or individual ride pricing model

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NEW WAY TO THINK ABOUT

TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS:

• You buy mobility, and not

machines!

• Transportation as a

service, rather than an

ownership model

ADOPTIONPOTENTIAL APPROACHES

Source: Barclays Research Insights on Disruptive Mobility (2015)

– Barclays Bank PLC

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WHERE AND HOW FAST

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CUYAHOGA – 1,255,730

FRANKLIN – 1,217,853

HAMILTON – 806,883

SUMMIT – 541,227

MONTGOMERY – 532,757

LUCAS – 434,882

STARK – 376,401

BUTLER – 373,646

15 MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES

IN OHIO

LORAIN – 302,925

MAHONING – 232,411

LAKE – 230,383

WARREN – 223,171

TRUMBULL – 205,170

CLERMONT – 202,685

DELAWARE – 189,340

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• PARCEL DATA – LAND USE

• TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE & USAGE CHARACTERISTICS

• COMMUTING CHARACTERISTICS

• HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS

• BUSINESS & SERVICE CHARACTERISTICS

• POPULATION BY AGE AND DENSITY

• INCOME CHARACTERISTICS

WHERE AND HOW FAST?

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* STRONG CORRELATION WITH LOCATION OF UNIVERSITIES

ADOPTION READINESS (TODAY)

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2020 – CITIES WITH HIGH

PROBABILITY OF LEVEL 2 TRAFFIC

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• OWNERSHIP MODEL MORE WIDELY ADOPTED ON A

GEOGRAPHIC SCALE

• SHARED MODEL LIKELY TO HAVE MORE USERS (LONG-TERM)

• HYBRID OF THE MODELS IS MOST LIKELY OUTCOME

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IMPACTS

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TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT “RULES”

TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS:• 3-5 parking spaces per 1,000 square feet

• Results in 40% of land needed for surface parking

• Expect to get 10,000 square feet of commercial floor area per acre.

• Other 33,000 s.f. of site area used for parking, circulation, storm,

setbacks.

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HILLIARD-ROME / I-270

INTERSECTION

109 ACRES

FREEWAY-

ORIENTED SITE

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NEW DEVELOPMENT “RULES” ?

DEVELOPMENT KEY POINTS:

• Parking is THE major constraint on development

• Development will be free from parking constraints

• The old rules of development will be obsolete

• Enormous increase in developable land

• Urban areas will become denser

• Suburban areas could expand

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MUST CONSIDER FUTURE REALITIES WHILE ADDRESSING IMMEDIATE NEEDS :

• Can garages pay for themselves when the economic model flips?

• If long-term public financing?

• Can we locate in key areas to be compatible with high AV usage?

DOWNTOWN DISTRICTSPARKING STRATEGY – DEVELOPMENT AND GARAGES

Source: Franklin County Convention Facilities Authority

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• TYPICAL URBAN NEIGHBORHOOD STREET

• ON-STREET PARKING SPACES IN 8-9 FOOT LANE

• IF LITTLE OR NO ON-STREET PARKING NEEDED, REPURPOSE

STREETS:• Stormwater controls

• Recreation

• Narrowing

• Buildable?

STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS

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• TYPICAL TRADITIONAL

NEIGHBORHOOD:

• On-street parking, one or both

sides of most streets

STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS – GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS, OHIO

Source: City of Grandview Traffic Advisory Plan

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• POTENTIAL AREA TO

“RECLAIM”:

• Approx 30 miles of parking

lanes

• Generally 8’ lane width

• Result in this one city for local

roads only = 1.3 million square

feet (30 acres)

STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS – GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS, OHIO

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STREETSNEIGHBORHOODS

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WHAT SHOULD PLANNERS

BE DOING?

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1. MAINSTREAM THE DISCUSSION

2. SET POLICY OBJECTIVES

3. START PLANNING DIFFERENTLY

• Site design

• Roadway design

• Land use

• Neighborhood planning

• Comprehensive planning

• Regional infrastructure systems

• Prioritize public investment

PLANNING IMPERATIVES

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• WE NEED TO THINK BIG

• THE TRANSPORTATION

TRANSFORMATION IS COMING

• WE NEED TO BE PREPARED.

BIG IDEAS…

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THANK YOU.

QUESTIONS?