www.csiro.au

The Next Decade of DigitalStrategic Responses to Technology Disruption

Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

1. Accelerate

2. Automate

3. Differentiate

5. Innovate

4. Navigate

6. Mitigate

7. Gravitate

8. Cogitate

The Next Decade of DigitalStrategic Responses to Technology Disruption

1. AccelerateSpeed up technology development, adoption and adaptation

Data Volumes

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Tho

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Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband

And we’d need another 75m to show you the 2025 forecast.

According to IBM The world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years.

Computing Speed

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Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years

And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster …

Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?

The Internet of Things

20062 Billion Devices

201515 Billion Devices

2020200 Billion Devices

Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia

225 times more functionality

40,000 times more functionality

Metcalfe's LawValue of a network = n2

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson7 |

Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what

day is the pond completely covered?

Image: Pixabay

8 |

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Pon

d C

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rage

(Sq

uar

e M

etre

s)

Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered.

Frog Doesn’t Know Anything is Happening Yet

Frog Suspects

Something Happening

Frog realises what’s

happening & tries to respond

50% Coverage

Image: Pixabay

100% Coverage

9 |

2. AutomateUse robots for rules-based, repetitive and routine tasks and extend the reach of artificial intelligence.

Automation and Artificial IntelligenceIBM’s Watson Google’s Driverless Car

Source: IBM, Google

Wall-Ye VIN Robot Image Source: AFPSource: Wired Magazine

The Reach of Robotics

Towards Emotionally Intelligent Machines?

FearAnger

Sadness

LoveJoy

Surprise

19,068 Emotional Tweets in 14 Hours from Brisbane

CSIRO’S “WE FEEL” SOFTWARE

EMOTIENT BIOSENSORS

Unclassified

Source: CSIRO, Emotient

Task Automation and Job Replacement

“More than 5 million Aussie Jobs [40% of workforce] gone in 10-15 years”- CEDA Report, Australia’s Future Workforce, 2015

“By one popular estimate 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist”

- World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs and Skills, 2016

Otonaroid robot with real person

displayed at Miraikan Science

Museum in Tokyo. Photo: Miraikan

sourced via News Robitics

3. Differentiate

Learn to race with the machine (not against it); understand your niche in

a connected business ecosystem

What Jobs do People Get?Research Finds that 40% - 50% of all Australian Jobs Will Be Replaced by Computers and Robots in the Coming 10-20 Years. So What do people do…

After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in …

20 mins.

The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube

Robots don’t do unstructured. But we can also change the supply chain…

Image source: Su-Star

Photographers Versus Lab Staff

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loym

ent

('0

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Australian Photographic Industry

Photographers

Developers/printers

Data Source: ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Company Employees Market Cap Market Cap Per Employee

Walmart 2.2 million $265 billion $120,000

Amazon 154,100 $173 billion $1.1 million

Facebook 9,199 $202 billion $22 million

Instagram (at sale) 13 $1 billion $80 million

Digital enables fewer

employees to generate

greater market value

Nov 2016

18 |

The Average is Over The Cost of Inequality

Tyler CowenJoseph Stiglitz

Two Perspectives …on equality of opportunity in tomorrow’s digital economy …

Image: Time Magazine, Mark Mahaney/ReduxImage: Youtube, Big Think

4. NavigateExplore and map new economic territory, learn the new hard and soft rules

Ronald CoaseRonald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.

The New Platform Economies

GLG

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson22 |

New Uber Drivers in the United States

A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016

Emerging Economies in TransitionTransition in the Chinese Economy

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o t

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Industry

Services

Agriculture

Source: World Bank Indicators

5. InnovateRattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational hierarchy

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Coal Price US$ per tonne

Iron Ore Price US$ per tonne

Wikimedia Commons, Stephen Codrington. Planet Geography 3rd Edition. Flickr, Graeme Churchard. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Pro

du

ctiv

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Ind

exTwenty Years of Productivity in Australia

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics “…In the long term it’s everything”

- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Laurate, Economics

Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger.

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson27 |

The Innovator’s DilemmaWorld Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen

Lean & Agile InnovationFail Fast, Test Often and Keep Trying

Build

Test

refine

Idea

Design Build

Test

refine

Idea

Design Build

Test

refine

Idea

Design

Small teams that can be fed on 2 (large) pizzas

Image source (pizza): Wikimedia, Creative Commons, Jakob Dettner & Rainer Zenz

CYCLE 1 CYCLE 2 CYCLE 3

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson29 |

6. MitigateManage the downsides of digital for customers, staff and society

Out of every 10 Australians 6 have been a victim of cybercrime

Of all victims 46 percent experienced a cybercrime incident in the past 12 months

In 2013 A$1.06 billion was stolen from Australian citizens in cybercrime events

The average financial loss per victim in 2013 was A$201

5 million Australians fell victim to cybercrime last year

Cybercrime – The Untamed Tiger in the Room

Australian Institute of Criminology

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson31 |

Information Overload and

Digital Exhaustion

.

7. GravitateUnderstand and focus on experiences your customers or community seek

Is it really just C8H10N4O2 ?

The Experience Economy 2.0

8. CogitateFree-up time and resources to think deeply, revisit issues and choose wisely

Working Smarter (Not Just Harder)A high tech digitally enabled economy rewards intelligence more than brute force

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ork

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urr

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Pri

ces)

Average Hours Worked Per Person Per Week

R2 = 0.65

Data Source: OECD Statistics, Labour productivity levels in the total economy, Data for 34 OECD Countries

Experiments in Sweden, reducing the work week from 8 to 6 hours tested by:

• Svartedalens elderly care home

• Internet startup, Brath

• Filimundus App Developer

• Stockholm city council

• Toyota service centre in Gothenburg

Sweden

Norway

Australia

Stockholm, Pixabay

The Power of DaydreamingThe Power of Daydreaming

Glenfinnan viaduct, Scotland, United Kingdom – And The Hogwarts Express by JK Rowling

In 1990 J.K. Rowling decided to daydream (not work) on a delayed train journeyfrom Manchester to London. She started writing at Clapham Junction …

www.csiro.au

Data 61Dr Stefan HajkowiczPrincipal Research Scientist

t +61 7 3833 5540e Stefan.Hajkowicz@csiro.au

Thank you