The Next 50 Years: Space Activities Opportunities and Challenges Ray A. Williamson Executive...
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![Page 1: The Next 50 Years: Space Activities Opportunities and Challenges Ray A. Williamson Executive Director Secure World Foundation Presentation to the World.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d235503460f949f9134/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Next 50 Years: Space Activities
Opportunities and Challenges
Ray A. WilliamsonExecutive Director
Secure World Foundation
Presentation to the World Academy of Arts and Sciences26 February 2008
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Our Dependence on Space Applications
• Much of humanity now depends to some extent on space applications, e.g., – Operation of cell phones (precise timing)– Position, navigation (GPS)– Banking– Financial transactions– Credit card gasoline purchases– Natural resources management– Weather, climate predictions
• E.g., reduced costs for electricity generation– Disaster mitigation and response
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The Space Activities Opportunity
• Private spaceflight and tourism are in development, e.g., Virgin Galactic, Bigelow Aerospace, EADS Astrium
• Science research and exploration from space– Advances in weather and climate prediction– Advances in space weather prediction (effects of the sun
on technological systems)– Advances in knowledge of the universe
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BUT….
• Outer space is a harsh, unforgiving environment• Objects in orbit tend to stay in orbit (Newton’s Laws)• Orbital speeds are very high (~7 km/sec in low Earth
orbit)• Space weather (X-rays, high speed solar particles) can
interrupt satellite operations
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The Space Security Challenge
• Increasing crowding in some key orbits• Increasing amounts of orbital debris• Space weather effects• Use of space weapons threaten space environment
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• Evolving orbital space activities are leading to crowding in some key orbits:– Polar orbits (Earth observation satellites)– Geosynchronous orbits (communications
satellites)
Orbital Crowding
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• Increasing amounts of debris in Earth orbit are becoming significant safety hazards to spacecraft− The Chinese Anti-satellite test in January 2007 added about
2500 pieces of “trackable debris” (>10 cm) – Today, some 18,000 objects > 10 cm orbit Earth (including
operational satellites)– Even tiny pieces of debris can cause significant damage to a
working spacecraft because impact velocities can exceed 10 km/sec.
Orbital Debris
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Debris Cloud Evolution
Cloud of debris of size greater than 10 cm after 15 minutes
Debris cloud after 10 days
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Working Satellites (Green) and Chinese Asat debris cloud (red)
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• Limiting creation of new debris– UN Copuos resolution to limit debris adopted by
General Assembly, October 2007• But voluntary only
– Additional controls on creation of debris needed• Mandatory within States?
• Research needed on methods to clean up existing debris
The Way Forward
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The Way Forward
• Develop an international cooperative approach to “Space Situational Awareness,” the ability to know where working spacecraft and major debris are at all times– Currently, only the United States has a well-developed SSA
capability; many of those data are classified– Steps by Europe, Russia, and China to develop SSA systems
may stimulate U.S. interest in a cooperative approach
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The Way Forward
• Develop a Space Traffic Management (STM) system—to prevent satellite-satellite and satellite-debris collisions
• STM should be established and operated according to internationally-agreed upon policies, regulations, and rules– Could be a well-defined code of conduct– One possible model as a starting point is the International
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
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TRAFFIC
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Potential Policy Issues
• Legitimacy of STM organizational body to implement and enforce rules
• Limitations on freedom of action by all actors
• Reluctance to share data because of privacy and competitive concerns
• Arenas for arbitration and legal recourse
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Space Weapons—the Ultimate Concern
Development and use of space weapons, including anti-satellite devices,
threaten current and future space activities
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What is a space weapon?
“A space weapon is an “object“ that is designed, tested or used to destroy or disrupt other objects in space or on Earth“
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Potential Space Weapons
• Space-to-Space (S2S) Systems– Maneuvrable „Kill Vehicle“ – MicroSats and co-orbital ASATs– Laser and Microwaves
• Space-to-Earth (S2E) Systems– Metal Rods and Maneuvrable Reentry vehicles
• Earth-to-Space (E2S) Systems– BMD- Kill Vehicle and– HE-Laser– Nuclearexplosion at high altitude– Transatmospheric air/space planes
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Old Space ‘Weapons‘ US and USSR
USSR: Hunting Satellites (“Killer Sat.”– Istrebitelny Sputnik [IS]
Target of IS (DS-P1-M, armoured)
Early version of IS
F-15-Asat‘
U.S.: Air Launched Miniature Vehicle (ALMV)
Source:www.fas.org/spp/military/program/asat/almv.htm
Source: www.russianspaceweb.com/is.htm
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First stage trajectory
Trajectory of the ASAT
Interception
G. Forden http:// web.mit.edu/stgs
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Chinese ASATTest
• The Chinese FY-IC SAT (880kg) was hit by a kill vehicle at 856 km with v=7.42 km/s
• This was the first ASAT test in 20+ years• The head on collision is comparable to the US MD Kill vehicle• After 2 weeks the US SSN observed ~500 fragments >10 cm; So
far ~2500 pieces have been tracked, but there are ~2000 larger pieces, which might stay several decades in space
• This is an increase of space debris in 850 km alt. of 28%• The test has increased the chances of an equatorial SAT being hit
by 50 %• A “chain reaction “ at 900 km might be possible in the future
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U.S. A-Sat Test
• National Reconnaissance Organization (NRO) satellite: USA-193 (NROL-21) – failed to reach its proper orbit and was falling out of orbit
• U.S. used modified Raytheon-built RIM-161 Standard Missile used for antiballistic missile tests to destroy it
• “President Bush ordered the action to prevent any possible contamination from the hazardous rocket fuel on board”, NYTimes, Feb 15, 2008
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A-Sat Test—Debris Issues
• USA-193 strike took place Feb. 22 when satellite was about 210 km high; models estimate that:– 50% of debris washed out immediately (estimated)– 99% within 1 week
• Fits UN guidelines on space debris (Dec. 2007)• Nevertheless, the test provided considerable technical
information that will be of enormous interest to the U.S. ballistic missile engineers
• Negative reaction from many U.S. analysts and some countries – Concern that this is a covert A-Sat test– Upset space stability and the long term space sustainability
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U.S. Asat Simulation
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What might be done?
• Military Solutions:– Passive defense: hardening, maneuvring– Active defense: Defensive SATS, deny access to space
• Diplomatic solutions:– Strengthening existing treaties (OST)
• Additional protocol• OST Review Conference
– “Codes of conduct”/ Confidence Building Measures– Comprehensive ban on ASAT or SWs
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Thanks
http://www.secureworldfoundation.org