![FREEPORT LNG TERMINAL · 2020. 5. 20. · FREEPORT LNG TERMINAL FREEPORT MARINE OPERATIONS MANUAL [04/15/20]2 FREEPORT LNG CONTACT INFORMATION TERMINAL OFFICES Freeport LNG Terminal](https://static.fdocuments.net/doc/165x107/606c9d1603f05e3bdb64da66/freeport-lng-terminal-2020-5-20-freeport-lng-terminal-freeport-marine-operations.jpg)
The New Dynamics of Global LNG Industry...Note: The above units are in mmt of LNG 177 220 311 2016...
12
www.fgenergy.com The New Dynamics of Global LNG Industry Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman February 15, 2016 Perth, Australia This presentation material contains confidential and privileged information intended solely for the recipient. The dissemination, distribution, or copying by any means whatsoever without FGE’s prior written consent is strictly prohibited. 5 th IAEE Asian Conference
Transcript of The New Dynamics of Global LNG Industry...Note: The above units are in mmt of LNG 177 220 311 2016...
www.fgenergy.com
The New Dynamics of Global LNG Industry
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman
February 15, 2016
Perth, Australia
This presentation material contains confidential and privileged information intended solely for the recipient. The dissemination, distribution, or copying by any means whatsoever without FGE’s prior written consent is strictly prohibited.
5th IAEE Asian Conference
www.fgenergy.com 2
FGE Long-Term Price Forecast Among the many variables affecting crude prices, four key scenarios drive our price outlook range:
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Base Case(US$/bbl Nominal) – Most Likely Path
Dated Brent (Nominal)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
OPEC Reacts: OPEC Cuts But Then Problems Return
OPEC Reacts
Base Case
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Political Outages: Low-Cost Producers Stay
Constrained
High Case Base Case
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Lower for Longer: Politically Shut-in Supplies Return
Low Case Base Case
www.fgenergy.com 3
While Asia’s LNG Demand Continues to Dwarf Other Regions
Domestic gas production in Argentina/Brazil?
Global LNG Demand by Region
Reform of subsidized gas prices?
Growing LNG needs as domestic supplies cannot keep up with
elevated economic growth
Declining domestic production requires
increasing LNG imports
Note: The above units are in mmt of LNG
177 220 311
2016 2020 2030
Asia
43 64
92
2016 2020 2030
Europe
8 13
29
2016 2020 2030
Middle East
25
39 36
2016 2020 2030
Americas
www.fgenergy.com 4
Asia is Potentially Over-Supplied for Several Years From 2017
Source: FGE estimates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
mm
t
Asia's Potential LNG Supply/Demand
Asian LNG supply Contracted supplies from Middle East into AsiaContracted supplies from Russia, Africa, Canada etc.* Uncontracted/flexible supplies from Middle EastUS Contracts Sold to Asian Buyers Asian LNG demand
* Excludes portfolio volumes Note: Only SPAs and equity volumes are taken into consideration under contracted supplies
www.fgenergy.com
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
US$
/mm
Btu
Japan Gas Price Forecasts
Japan spot Japan long-term contract price
5
Asia Long-Term and Spot LNG Price Outlook Japanese Contract Prices Vary With Oil Prices, While Spot Prices Remain Suppressed This Decade
Note: The above prices are in 2016 real terms
Spot prices remain disconnected from oil-linked pricing this decade as the market remains over-supplied due to new liquefaction project startups.
From 2022, market becomes less over-supplied, due to a lack of liquefaction FIDs, resulting in gradually closer correlation between spot and contract prices.
Both prices rise to around US$10.5/mmBtu by 2025 as oil price rises, giving a reasonable return to the next tranche of LNG supply.
www.fgenergy.com
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
US$
/mm
Btu
Global Gas/LNG Price Forecasts
Brent parity HH-Full cost long-term contract price into Asia NBP Japan spot Japan long-term contract price
6
Global Gas/LNG Price Outlook The Japan/UK Spot Price Differential Narrows Dramatically From 2015
Note: The above prices are in 2016 real terms
Asian prices converge to ~US$11/mmBtu around 2025.
Japan spot/NBP price differentials narrow to ~ US$1/mmBtu as large increase in flexible US LNG exports erodes Qataris’ ability to restrict Asian LNG supplies.
www.fgenergy.com 7
For Buyers and Sellers to Meet, LNG Price Levels and Contractual Flexibilities Need to be Adjusted
Pricing Adjustments
• Lower price expectations
• Balance between slope and constant
• Re-emergence of ‘S’-curve
• More regular price review (~5 years)
• Increased acceptance of hybrid pricing
Non-Pricing Adjustments
• Destination flexibility
• Volume flexibility (higher DQT)
• Buyers’ equity investments
• Buyers given more risk protection
• Sellers manage LNG quality issues
• Sellers manage credit issues
• Potential alliances within buyers/sellers
• More multi-duration sales contracts
www.fgenergy.com
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
mm
t
Global Liquefaction Capacity and LNG Demand
Speculative
Possible
Planned
Under Construction
Operating
World LNG Demand
8
Massive Pre-FID LNG Supplies are Planned Post-2019
Source: FGE Online Data Service (ODS)
www.fgenergy.com 9
Global LNG Supply and Demand Many Planned Projects in Australia and Canada May Not Happen Until After 2025
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
mm
t
Global LNG Supply/Demand Balance
Operating Under Construction Under Construction - Australia
Planned/Possible Planned/Possible - Australia Planned/Possible - Canada
Speculative Global LNG Demand Asian LNG Demand
Source: FGE estimates
www.fgenergy.com
Unsold US LNG ~32-40 mmt
Uncommitted Qatari LNG ~30-43 mmt
10
“4 Chains” Weigh Down the LNG Market Potentially >100 mmt of LNG Unsold From Existing and Under Construction Projects
Buyers Performing Below Contract Levels* ~3-4 mmt
*Only for high priced contracts (slope >15%) **Uncommitted volumes, equity offtake, and potential volumes re-entering market from ‘middle-men’ buyers Note: Range of volumes presented span across the 2020-2025 timeframe
Australian LNG Looking for a Home** ~25-32 mmt
www.fgenergy.com 11
A Prolonged Loose Asian Market till 2028? – Something’s Gotta Give!
*In operation and under construction projects **Including selected contracts with slopes of 15% or above from Asian and Middle Eastern supplies. †Assuming buyers take minimum volumes for contracts with slopes of 15% or above.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
mm
t
4 Chains Pulling Down the LNG Market
Australian Marketable Volumes from Existing Contracts/Equity* Australian Uncontracted Supply*Estimated Marketable Volumes from High Slope Contracts** US Uncontracted & Marketable Supply (UC Projects)Qatar Uncontracted & Flexible Supply Asian Uncontracted Demand (Existing Markets) AU Adjusted†
Source: FGE estimates
Retainer Services | Advisory Services | Multi-Client Studies | Consultation
www.fgenergy.com | [email protected]
Thank You
Global Headquarters FGE London: FGE House 133 Aldersgate Street London, EC1A 4JA United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7726 9570
Asian Headquarters FGE Singapore: 8 Eu Tong Sen Street #20/89-90 The Central Singapore 059818 Tel: +65 6222 0045 Fax: +65 6222 0309
Global Offices
Tokyo: +81 (3) 6256 0299 Beijing: +86 (10) 5869 5737 Dubai: +971 (4) 457 4270 Hawaii: +1 (808) 944 3637 California: +1 (714) 593 0603 Mumbai: +91 (22) 2407 4033
