The New Craft of Intelligence:Creating a Prosperous World at Peace

Re-Inventing Intelligence

This Is My Area of Interest

CE

CS CI

I2 x E2 = CN

Four Different Threat ClassesRequire Four Different Security Approaches

PHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(BIG WAR)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(GANGS)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(HOME)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(POOR)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR

Clearly understood in 1988 but BOTH the U.S. Intelligence Community AND the Military Leaders Refused to Listen.

The Problem with Peacekeepers….inter alia

The big red lips are a clue. To kiss or not to kiss, that is the question.

Humanities:“Free the Frog”

Peacekeepers:“Eat the Frog”

Philosophers:“Question the Frog”

Spiritualists:“Worship the Frog”

Engineers:“Talking Frog: Way Cool”

Scientists:“Dissect the Frog”

Merchants:“Sell the Frog”

Politicians:“Ignore the Frog”

Lawyers:“Blame the Frog”

The time for enlightenment has come. We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future.…

In our opinion, we must first atone for the past and open our cards, so to speak.

Vladimir Putin28 January 2009

Davos, Switzerland

Key Negative Trends• Collapse of complex societies: catastrophe from disaster

for lack of resilience & adaptation as well as corruption

• Acts of Man creating Acts of God: natural disasters will be more frequent & more severe as we cement more land

• Acceleration of Earth’s Demise: changes that used to take 10,000 years now take THREE years; absent Real Time Science and Real Time Public Policy (online, deliberative, transparent) we die

• Shock Capitalism continues to loot the Earth and has turned USA into a Third World country—UAE (Dubai) is the new Switzerland

• Political Corruption ascendant—44 dictators, both Republican and Democratic parties are “running on empty” and very corrupt, elites in towns across America have sold us out

Key Positive Trends• Wealth of networks: fortune at the bottom of the

pyramid, peace through connectivity, wealth from sharing information

• GreenMind: Biomimicry, beneficial bacteria, green chemistry,

• Information Symmetry=Moral Capitalism: : “true costs” at point of sale; natural capitalism, green to gold, cradle to cradle, home rule, eat local, end of corporate personality

• Left Hand of God: faith-based dialog and diplomacy, obvious need to end our support to 42 of 44 dictators, shunning of cults

• Peer to Peer People Power: from the Tao of Democracy to localized Wisdom Councils to Blessed Unrest to the Clock of the Long Now.

We MUST do Whole of Government Intelligence, Military Should Lead the Way

Thinking Holistically

Everything is Connected—Get a Grip!

Open Sources & Ten Threats• Economic and social threats including 95%

– poverty, 99%– infectious disease and 95%– environmental degradation 90%

• Inter-State conflict 75%• Internal conflict, including 90%

– civil war, 80%– genocide and 95%– other large-scale atrocities 95%

• Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation) 75%

• Terrorism 80%• Transnational organized crime 80%

On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN System’s Information Management is not.

Goal of the UN Training InitiativeUN Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN)

• I trained the “Class Before One” for the United Nations in August 2007. The figure here is from the UN, showing their own estimation of what they have access to and the urgent need to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material that is available, so as to integrate all relevant information into UN decision-making at the strategic, operational, tactical, and technical levels.

Open Source Information

1

2

1. Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions2. UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO

Definitions• Data is the increment that can be known• Information is organized data of generic interest• Education is the Process of Sharing• Knowledge is information available for application• Intelligence is DECISION-SUPPORT• Intelligence is also Remedial Education for Adults• Wisdom is Collective Intelligence in Being• Integrity is the Force that Powers Social Networks.

Nature IndividualsSocial

Networks

If you read nothing else, read Chapter 15, “New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence”

Secrets

"Intelligence"

"Protected"

Open

Targeting

Signals

Imagery

Order of Battle

Mapping

Undercover

Investigation

Privacy

Metrics

Client Information

Pricing Information

Cost Information

External Information

Secret

Sensitive

Private

Open

Secret

Sensitive

Private

Open

Secret

Sensitive

Private

Open

GOV MIL LEA BUS ACAD NGO-Media CIVIL

Seven Tribes of Intelligence (Eight if NGO-Media Separated)

Three Views on the Nature of Information (Red Secret, Green Open)

WE THE MILITARY MUST LEAD THE WAY IN TRANSFORMING INTELLIGENCE

Government “Intelligence” Is Inside Out and Upside DownUsing Wrong End of the very expensive telescope

Conscious Evolution in Every Clime and Place

CE

CS CII2 x E2 = CN

GEOGRAPHY CLIMATE

GENOCIDEPOLITICAL (IMPOSED)

ETHNOGRAPHY

POVERTY

EUR

USA

PRC

Collection Integrity• Respect Historical• Respect Indigenous• Seek Out “True Costs”• Seek 360o Viewpoints• Do Real-Time Science

Analytic Integrity• Never Neglect History• 360o Analysis Always

• Countervailing Views• In Relation to 10/12/8*

• Practice Analytic Tradecraft• Follow the New Rules (26)* 10 threats, 12 policies, 8 challengers

Processing Integrity• Digitize EVERYTHING• Geospatial Time Tag ALL• Apply automated analysis• Provide human-centric IT• Embrace Visualization

Program Integrity• Practice Golden Rule• Respect Reality• Respect the Public• Be the Moral Agent• Eat What You Kill• Share Known Truths

Leadership Integrity• Open Mindset• Moral Courage• See the Whole• Play the Long Game• Share Knowledge• Seek Wisdom

INTELLIGENCE = DECISION-SUPPORT

1. Define the Requirement2. Discover the Source(s)3. Discriminate among Sources & Methods4. Distill Information into Intelligence5. Deliver the Intelligence (Timely Usable)

Intelligence is defined by its OUTPUT (decision-support) not by its INPUT. Intelligence does not have to be, should not be, classified or restricted. In the Peacekeeping arena, sharing adds value, secrecy reduces value.

POLITICS IS NOT INTELLIGENTShould Be, But Is Not, Synthesis

Theoretical Sharing from Seven TribesGovernment, Military, Law Enforcement, Academia, Business, Media &

Non-Profit, Civil Society Including Labor & Religion

ACTUAL Information-Sharing & Decision-Support: 2%

I am not making this up (second graduate thesis):

• Typical Embassy collects at best 20% of available relevant information

• Diplomats outnumbered by singletons from many other agencies, have no money

• Spies have money, but will only listen to traitors

• As a collective, spill 80% of the 20% on how it is processed (or not) back to home base

Dumber, Blunder, & PlunderNo Feedback Loops, No Integrity

Tax Citizens

$$$$$

LegislateSpending

$$$$Corporate

Profit

$$

Bureaucratic Waste

$$$

US$1.3 Trillion for War, When US$227B Could Buy BOTH Peace AND ProsperityWE MUST ACHIEVE WHOLE OF GOVERNMENT/WHOLE EARTH HARMONIZATION

Copyright © Medard Gabel, BigPictureSmallWorld, All Rights Reserved

Google Plus: You Get What Someone ELSE Pays for You to See

Missing Online Information

Overt SME

Covert “Hides”

Clandestine HUMINTCovert Action HUMINTOffensive CounterintelligenceDefensive Counterintelligence

Rule 5Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant

• USA failed to translate captured documents from first World Trade Center bombing and from Philippines

• Need global network of on-call translators in 33+ languages

• Web-based, 24/7• Military is the best

reach-back channel

OSS Terrorism Project 1999Arabic, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu

Millions

Level of Analysis Threat Grade CommentStrategic Sustainability

LOW (2.0) Not sustainable for more than two weeks.

Operational Availability

MEDIUM (3.0)

Many of them scattered around.

Tactical Reliability

LOW (2.0) Cannibalized parts, stored in open, poorly trained crews.

Technical Lethality

HIGH (4.0) Best tanks money could buy at the time from Russia.US IC Official Threat on Worst Case Basis

General Threat Factor

<MEDIUM (2.75)

Proper analysis differentiated threat at each level which means each level commander is individually informed.

Military Difference

1.25 (31%) Being wrong by 31% is significant—nuances matter. On balance, at two of four levels, threat is a LOW threat.

Threat (or Factor Being Evaluated) Changes at Each Level of Analysis

This example is the T-72 Tank in Libya in 1988, discussed at analyst level across US IC.

LOVE NOT WARGandhi Had It Right

APPLY THE GOLDEN RULEWe Cannot Win With Guns

BE ACCOUNTABLE TO ALLCitizens, Congress, Humanity

INTEGRATE FAITH & VALUESMorality, Legitimacy, Reciprocity, Transparency

DEVISE & IMPLEMENT LONG-TERMMultinational Information Sharing & Sense-Making

APPLY OPEN EVERYTHING WITH INTEGRITYCombine Access, Brains, Honor, & Tools

START WITH REALITYAll Information, All Languages, All the Time

New Strategy: 1 + iii:Need better balance within national security.

50% 15% 20% 15%

250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B

CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME

Strategic NBC

Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence

Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border PatrolGround

TruthEconomic

AidPort

Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Reserve

Reserve Environment

Public Health

Peace Navy

Peace is Faster, Better, Cheaper than War—Waging Peace Is Our Focus.

33

CORE FORCE

StrategistsAdvise Policy

ConstabularyStabilize Failed States

Domestic ThreatsFires, Riots, Epidemics

Citizen EducationBond Nation through Service

Force on ForceDeliberate Violence

Electronic SecuritySet Standards, Stand Watch

Small WarsRandom Violence

Ground TruthObserve with Warrior’s Eyes

Core Force for PeaceWaging Peace is Primarily a Human Endeavor

Call in Peace Targets 24/7

One Man- One Bullet

Future

History &Current

Now

Information & Intelligence Element of Regional CentreStart with OSINT, As Trust Builds, Migrate to Minimal Necessary Clandestine

Multinational Information-Sharing & Sense-Making

Need Your Government’s Help in Making This an Issue for UN Secretary General.We can Get USA to Pay for an Assistant Secretary General for Decision Support; a Multinational Decision-Support Centre that uses only unclassified information; and an Open Source Agency that is a service of common concern for humanity.

CCC M4IS2

Evolves

Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IIOSAS) Capability for Each UN ElementEvolves into UN Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN)

We MUST Harness the “Distributed Intelligence” of the Whole Earth IF We Are to Understand, Deliberate, Decide, and ACT to Create Prosperous World at Peace

Strategic View of Information Producing Peace and Prosperity

Bill Clinton28 January 2009

Davos, Switzerland

A lot of us [NGOs] have lost a great deal in that our wealthy donors have not been able to contribute as generously as they have in the past. We are going to have to learn how to use the Internet and global communications to reach every citizen, to redefine global citizenship so that every citizen, including all those of modest means, feels a responsibility to give, to donate. And in the end, we will be stronger. Paraphrase as recollected by Robert Steele

Figure 14: Global Range of Gifts Table Illustrated

All those with a need, however miniscule

All

tho

se w

ith s

ome

thin

g to

giv

e Time & Space Relations

Cluster of Food Need Over Time

Powered by Zero Waste Mind-Sets, Enabled by Ubiquitous Information Access

Benefit #1: On Demand Precision Giving Benefit #2: Elimination of Overhead

Benefit #3: Harnesses Giving of Billion Individuals Who Do Not Give Now

Cluster of Medical Needs

Peer to peer giving

Cluster of Clothing Need

Harmonized Giving

Org

anize

d G

iving

Time-Phased Harmonized Giving

Peacekeeping Intelligence 21: Influence How OTHERS Spend

Wks, Mos, Yrs, Decades

M4IS2 Applied to the Harmonization of InvestmentFor Any Given Place Across Weeks, Months, Years, Decades

Truth, Trust, Time

Every community needs two Truth & Reconciliation Commissions

First for “what have we done to our own indigenous & impoverished?”

Second for “what has been done to others ‘in our name’?”

Nobel Prize given in 1990’s for a gamer who demonstrated that Trust Lowers the Cost of Doing Business.

Trust—Morality—is to the physical as ten to one in terms of creating a prosperous world at peace.

Time is the one strategic variable that cannot be bought nor replaced. Use it or lose it.

CALL FOR INPUTS: Book “closes” 1 May 2009 for printing in August 2009

I was the most beautiful little

frog until a peacekeeper kissed me….

www.oss.netwww.earth-intelligence.net

To kiss, or not, is a Whole of Government inquiry. Integrity. There is NO Substitute.

See especially, www.oss.net/BASIC and www.oss.net/COMMUNITIESDo not skip the NATO OSINT Handbook or the Lecture on New Rules

Pieces of PKI Book II at www.oss.net/Peace (including “Notional” UN training)