The Need for Action -evidence for global warming,

hope for solutions

Geoff DaviesVisiting Fellow

Earth Sciences, ANUAuthor: Economia

Is global warming happening?

•Yes.

Is global warming happening?

•Yes.

Is global warming still happening?

• Yes, it’s the long-term trend.

•Note pauses 1980s, 1990s.

• 2010 equal warmest-ever, so far.

What about cooling 1940-1970?

•Due to

• industrial soot and dust

• cooling North Atlantic ocean

TextText

Mainly in northern hemisphere

Arctic sea ice, to September 2007

Previous minima

Decline of Arctic sea ice (area)

Decline of Arctic sea ice (volume)

Are we causing global warming?

•Consistent with predictions from 20-30 years ago

•Many lines of evidence

•well-established physics (100+ years)

•measured patterns of warmth in atmosphere

•the past

•models - disputed but consistent

Patterns of warmth:

Indications from the past

•e.g. temperature and CO2 variations in during ice ages

CO2 Temperature

Indications from the past•Collective estimates from

• ice ages

• volcanic eruptions

• past warm episodes

• sediment records

Result: 3-4°C (or more) per doubling of CO2

Consequences? Many.

•Complex interactions:

•different species respond differently

•some decline - extinctions

•some increase - plagues

•trees migrate slower than birds - ecosystems ripped apart

•Total effects impossible to predict

Consequences? Many.•Ecosystems

•Sea level

Consequences? Many.

Is there any hope?

•Yes -

•with good policies, cost to economy small (<1% GDP)

•eliminating waste is the quickest, most cost-effective option - start tomorrow

•many technologies available already

•We can accept remaining difficulties as a challenge, not a reason to dither

Cost of 60% emissions reduction:9 months longer to double

GDP

Steve Hatfield-Dodds, CSIRO

No actionEarly action

Reducing waste

• Available now at zero or moderate cost:

• Building energy efficiency: quadruple

• Vehicle fuel efficiency: double

• Household electricity use: one quarter

• Water efficiency double (or more)

• . . .

Eliminating wasteRedefine waste: as nutrient

(Cradle-to-cradle design)

Carpet nutrient Battery nutrient

Interface Carpet Inc. - efficiency gains

• Broadloom to tiles: x5

• Recyclable polymer:

• 2/3 the material: x1.5

• 4 times as durable: x4

• Total gain x30 (97% material reduction)

• After 4 years:

• Revenues doubled

• Employment nearly doubled

• Profits tripled!

The second industrial revolution

•Waste is nutrient

•(Organic) growth is good

•Survive on energy income

•Diversity is resilience

A factory like a forest?

A factory like a forest?