When the Wind Blows: An Introduction to Catastrophe Excess of Loss
The Nature of the Wind. Talk Outline A.Big picture (Why the wind blows) B.The global circulation...
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Transcript of The Nature of the Wind. Talk Outline A.Big picture (Why the wind blows) B.The global circulation...
The Nature of the Wind
Talk Outline
A. Big picture (Why the wind blows)
B. The global circulation
C. Large-scale force balance above the boundary layer
D. The planetary boundary layer (PBL)
i. wind
ii. friction
iii. turbulence (mechanical and thermal)
iv. structure and stability
E. Wind parameterization
F. Surface characteristics
G. Recent work
PBL
atmosphere
3 km
How do we identify areas/regions that are favorable for wind energy (commercial)?
Are there certain features associated with wind-prone regions (e.g., terrain, water, etc.)?
GLOBAL CIRCULATION
General Circulation: Conceptual Models of the Atmosphere
*non-rotating rotating
*Uniformly covered with H2O
*Sun directly overhead at Eq
higher tropopause
sfc winds sfc winds
GOOD MODEL?
Hadley Cell
Low pressure
high
high
*thermally driven
isobars
or…. How thermal energy is redistibuted in the atmosphere
ok for tropics maybe…
p = RT?
sfc winds
Atmosphere is (in part) thermally driven: e.g. 3 Cell Model
rising
sinking
rising
sinking
*Uniformly covered with H2O
*Sun directly overhead at Eq
divergence
convergence
convergence
sfc winds
H H H
polar front
30N
60N
(surface trough)
*Studies show 1-cell model unstable
*ITCZ (convergence/rising motion)
LL
*development of mid-lat cyclones
Northeast trades
Polar easterlies
Westerlies
(cools)
(warms)
H
H H H
LL
*Actual airflow more complicated….
sinking
low pressure
Non-Rotating Rotating
Reality…
Lower atmosphere is referred to as the troposphere (~ 15 km)
The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is confined to the lower part of the atmosphere (~0-3 km) over which the impact of the earth’s surface can be important.
80-90% of the mass of the atmosphere is in the troposphere!
from Doswell
Looking at the lowest 2 km…
winds ~ geostrophic
planetary boundary layer
wind turbine
increasing friction
Above the top of the boundary layer the atmosphere is close togeostrophic balance…
high
low
FCoriolis= pgf
pgf1. parcel begins to accelerate due to pgf
2. Coriolis kicks in (to right of motion)
3. As parcel accelerates, Coriolis increases
4. As Coriolis increases balances with pgf
initial unbalanced flow equilibrium
(constant wind – no net force)
This balance only applies to ‘straight’ isobars
Not quite this simple in reality as geostrophic balance does not describe how we arrive at a balanced flow!
Assume constant PGF
What influences the wind in the PBL?
Driven by large-scale horizontal pressure/temperature gradients
Impacted by surface roughness characteristics
Earth’s rotation (Coriolis)
Diurnal temperature cycle at the surface (PBL stratification)
Entrainment of air above the PBL
Horizontal advection of momentum & heat
Large-scale convergence/divergence
Clouds and precipitation
Topography
w
Near the sfc (above sfc layer up to 1 km or so)
low
FCoriolis= pgf
high
apply friction
new equilibriumno net force
1. Parcel in geostrophic balance.
2. Apply friction (disrupt balance).
3. Winds decelerate, Coriolis weakens.
4. PGF causes flow to deflect toward low pressure.
Ffr
5. New force balance established
Ekman Spiral
This balance only applies to ‘straight’ isobars
zgeostrophic
yx
x-isobaric toward low pressure
Assume constant PGF
isobars
Things like frictional drag, solar heating, and evapotranspiration generate turbulence of various-sized eddies
A good forecast (e.g., wind) is often critically dependent on accurate estimates of surface fluxes
zshear driven (e.g., nighttime,cloudy/stable daytime conditions)
thermally driven
high reflection!
more absorption
DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER
Noon NoonSunset SunriseMidnight
1 km
10 km
Free Atmosphere
surface layer
ConvectiveMixed Layer
Mixed Layer
stable boundary layer
Residual Layer
Residual layer
The residual layer is the part of the atmosphere where mixing still takes place as a result of air flow (mechanical), although heat fluxes from the surface of the Earth are small.
The surface layer (~lowest 10% of PBL) is the area most influenced by surface properties like heat fluxes etc..much of what I’ll be talking about coming up is relevant to this layer only.
winds are ~ geostrophic
radiational cooling
peak heating
similar characteristics
The structure of the atmospheric boundary layer wind profile is influenced by the underlying surface and by the stability of the PBL
Surface roughness determines to a certain extent the amount of turbulence production, the surface stress and the shape of the wind profile.
(same stability)
increasing roughness length
“no-slip lower boundary”
Stability influences the structure of turbulence. In an unstably stratified PBL (e.g. during day-time over land with an upward heat flux from the surface) the turbulence production is enhanced and the exchange is intensified resulting in a more uniform distribution of momentum, potential temperature and specific humidity.
In a stably stratified boundary layer (e.g. during night-time over land) the turbulence produced by shear is suppressed by the stratification resulting in a weak exchange and a weak coupling with the surface.
well-mixed
Wind speed increases with height more rapidly in a stable PBL
deep mixingshallow/less mixing
Using a mean wind value for a site will mask the variation in wind speed. As wind power generated depends upon the cube of the wind speed this may seriously affect the estimate of wind power available over a year.
This problem may be overcome by describing the wind speed probability distribution for the year.
Use of statistical tools is difficult (e.g., length of sample can impact on the results – ‘representativeness’)
Data would be more useful if it could be described by a mathematical expression (e.g., for modeling/parameterizations).
Provides estimates of the wind speed (at a level and locale) where none exists
Ultimately will help with the ‘siting’ of wind instrumentation
Why parameterize the low-level PBL wind?The wind profile can be, to a first order, be represented by simple relationships (combo of empircal and physical!)
Power Law Profile (Prandtl)
(i.e., should only be used for heights above the roughness elements where the flow is free)
power law should be carefully employed since it is not a physical representation of the surface layer and does not describe the flow nearest to the ground very well
zR = height of uR (~10 m)
f(friction)
D typically taken to 0
NWS winds
The increase of wind speed with height in the lowest 100m can be described by a logarithmic expression (i.e., assumes that the wind variation with height is inversely proportional to the height).
Logarithmic Profile Law (NNBL only)
Turbulent mixing in the atmosphere may be considered in a similar way to molecular mixing (this is called K theory)
represents the effect of wind stress on the ground
(depends on sfc and wind magnitude)
simple laws?
u*/k ~ uRln(zR/z0)
Both the log law and the power law are simplified expressions of the actual wind profile. They are valid in flat homogeneous terrain.
They do not include the effects of topography, obstacles or changes in roughness or stability.
When either of these 2 simple laws do apply, they are intended for the lower part of boundary layer called the surface layer (i.e.lowest ~50-100 m or so, but above the canopy and in flat homo-geneous terrain).
• Wind direction is assumed to change little with height• Effects of earth rotation are assumed to be minimal• Wind structure is determined by surface friction and the vertical temperature gradient.