The National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) and the Asia Pacific Energy and Resource Modelling Platform

CLEWs framework: Nicaragua case

MINISTERIO DE HACIENDA

Y CRÉDITO PÚBLICO

MHCP

Osmar CuadraPublic Investment Specialistocuadra@snip.gob.ni

Figures

2

Capital Managua

Area (Kms2) 130,373

Country Location Central America

Population (Millions)/1 6.4

Income per-cápita (U$) /1 2,160.6

Poverty/2 29.6%

GDP (U$ Millions) /1 13,814.2

GDP Growth Rate (%) /1 4.9

Electrification rate/3 95.8%

% Urban HH with clean cooking/2 72.8%

% Rural HH with clean cooking/2 9.3%

PacificRegion

Central Region

CaribbeanRegion

/1 2017 /2 2014 /3 2019Source: Central Bank of Nicaragua, INIDE and IMF.

Figures-Energy sector

Big issues:

• Drop the energy price but

preserving the criteria of safety

and quality of service.

• System reliability in the context

of climate change.

• Reduce the investment risk for

the private sector.

Figures-Land use

1983 2000 2010 20152005

Main challenges:

• Reconcile the expected increase in agricultural and livestock production with the

national goal to increase forest land use.

• Mitigate the impact of climate change on water cycle by increasing the forest land use.

Figures: Climate

Rainfall pattern change

Figures: Climate

Rainfall pattern change

Main challenges:

• Increasing demand for water to

irrigate crops (sugar cane) at a time

that drinking water is increasing.

• Manage water resource to generate

electricity and satisfy water demand

for others sectors.

Land use representation

7

Caribbean region

Hydro powerWater availability

Climate change

Pacific region

Water availability Irrigation

Central region

Water availability

Non-agricultural

demand

Crops Hydro power

Non-agricultural

demand

Climate change

Climate change

Agriculturalborder

Land use representation

Pacific region

• Coffee

• Sugar cane

• Grains irrigated

• Oilseeds

• Vegetables

• Other crops

Caribbean region

• Coffee

• Grains (beans and maize)

• Vegetables

• Other crops

Central region

• Coffee

• Grains (beans and maize)

• Oilseeds

• Vegetables

• Other crops

Land use representation

Superficial water

– agriculture

DEMAGRWAT1

Groundwater –

agriculture

DEMAGRWAT1

Sugar Cane –

region 1

LNDSUG1IAGRWAT1

Rainfall resource

RNWLND1

Superficial water

resource

WATSUR001

WATSUR1

WATRUN1

Superficial water for

non agriculture use

DEMNAGWAT1WATSUR1

WATEVT1

WATGRD1

Superficial water for

environmental flows

WATENV001

WATPREC1

Groundwater–

XXXGRWAT1

Groundwater– non

agricultura use

DEMNAGRWTG1

ELC

ELC

ELC

GSL, DSL,…

Energy chain of NicaraguaEn

ergy

re

pre

sent

atio

n

RS-

Res

ult

s

RS-

Res

ult

s

Scenarios - Biomass power production

New capacity installed to biomass power

34

50

Inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

(MW

)

Reforestation scenario

Cultivated

pasture

Natural

pasture

Mixed

pasture Total

Dairy cows 217 147 114 139

Beef cattle 81 94 78 83

Combined 155 126 114 124

Other 161 115 85 111

Total 161 121 100 117

Stocking rate [heads of cattle per Sq. Km]

Cultivated pastureNatural pastureMixed pasture Total

Dairy cows 55.1 30.3 24.5 30.8

Beef cattle 6.4 3.4 4.2 4.4

Combined 25.6 16.4 17.8 18.7

Other 25.9 19.0 12.5 17.4

Total 28.7 18.8 15.9 19.0

Milk yield [Klitres per Km2]

Reforestation scenarioScenario Reference Medium growth High growth Medium growrh +

Production of cattleand milk

Constant 1.1%-0.6% 4%-2.9% 1.1%-0.6%

Allocation betweentypes of pastures

Free allocation with bounds

Free allocation with bounds

Free allocation with bounds

Fixed pasture shares

Reforestation scenario-reference

Reforestation scenario-medium growth

Reforestation scenario-medium growth with no allocation of land

Reforestation scenario-high growth

Soft link of energy and CGE modelsHH consumption 2018-2030 (NPV C$ 108)

GHG emissions

decrees 2018-2030 Poverty Level in

2030 Porcentual variation of GDP

Capacity building

2014

1 OSeMOSYs

workshop

2015

2 CGE and 2 OSeMOSYsworkshops

2016

Technicalreport of

futureenergy

pathways

1 WEAP workshop

2017

3 CLEWsworkshops

Trieste SummerSchool

2018

PN on RE investment

and externalvulnerability

1 CLEWsworkshop

Central Bank and Ministry

of Finance

NationalInstitute of Territorial

studies

Ministry of Energy and

Mining

Next update1. Update rainfall and evapotranspiration data, improve soil use information and interlink the groundwater resource with the extracting technology (WEAP).

2. Use the climate scenarios generated by national agency to study climate change impacts.

3. Create a connection between surface water and hydroelectric generation (WEAP-CLEWS).

4. To take into account Greenhouse Gas Emission related to land use changes.

5. Improve the time framework representation to reflects the seasonality of water availability for crops.

6. To take into account the GHG emission by livestock sector and, at the same time, study what are the opportunity to produce biogas and reduce GHG emissions.

Thank you

MINISTERIO DE HACIENDA

Y CRÉDITO PÚBLICO

MHCP