The National Climate and Water Briefing...• 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of...
Transcript of The National Climate and Water Briefing...• 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of...
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The National Climate and Water Briefing
24 January 2013
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Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre
Agenda
• 2012 climate review • Climate conditions and outlook • Hydrologic conditions and outlook • Severe weather season to date
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Climate conditions and outlook
Dr Karl Braganza Manager Climate Monitoring
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• Recent and 2012 climate conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers • Outlook for rainfall and temperature
Climate conditions and outlook
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‘A year of two halves’ – rainfall January–March rainfall deciles April–December rainfall deciles
• Annual rainfall 476 mm, 11 mm above average • A very wet first 3 months, the remainder dry • 47 per cent of 2012’s rain fell in Jan–Mar • In terms of anomalies:
• Jan–Mar rain was 70 mm above average • Apr–Dec rain was 59 mm below average
• State totals within 10 per cent of average except South Australia
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Annual mean temperature Monthly mean temperature deciles
• 2012 started cool, finished very warm • Annual mean slightly above average 0.11 °C • Jan–Jul generally cool, especially March • Warmer-than-average from August: • Nationally-averaged Sep–Dec maxima
warmest on record • Annual maxima 0.51 °C above average,
minima 0.28 °C below average
‘A year of two halves’ – temperature
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Long-term temperature anomalies
• Globally, 2012 was the ninth-warmest year on record at 0.46 °C above average
• Globally, the most recent 10 years (2003–2012) were the equal-second-warmest 10-year period on record
• For Australia, it was the fifth warmest 10-year period • Australia has only experienced one cooler-than-average year in the
last decade (2011) • Globally and for Australia, minima are warming faster than maxima
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Long-term temperature anomalies
• Globally, 2012 was the ninth-warmest year on record at 0.46 °C above average
• Globally, the most recent 10 years (2003–2012) were the equal-second-warmest 10-year period on record
• For Australia, it was the fifth warmest 10-year period • Australia has only experienced one cooler-than-average year in the
last decade (2011) • Globally and for Australia, minima are warming faster than maxima
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Shift in the frequency of record setting temperatures Frequency of record high (red) and low (blue) max temperature
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Frequency of record high (red) and low (blue) min temperature
Daytime temperature Night–time temperature
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Fire weather
• Weather conducive to the spread and intensification of wild fire
• Increasing at around half of the monitoring sites studied
• Longer fire season extended in November and March
Change in the annual forest fire danger index
Solid purple shows increase in fire weather Satellite image of fires in New South Wales
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Winter Rainfall Anomaly - Southwestern Australia
Australian cool season has been drier
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Autumn Rainfall Anomaly - Southeastern Australia
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Autumn rainfall anomalies (mm/year) for southeastern Australia since 1900
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Australian cool season rainfall deciles (November 1997–March 2012)
Winter rainfall anomalies (mm/year) for southwestern Australia since 1900 (from
1961–1990 base)
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April–September 2012
Rainfall since October 2010
October 2010–March 2011 October 2011–March 2012
Pattern of long-term rainfall decline April–September
(1997–2011)
April 2011–September 2011 October–Dec 2012
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Last four month’s minimum temperature September–December 2012 minimum deciles September–December 2012 minimum anomalies
• Minimum temperatures were warm out west, but average to cool over much of eastern Australia
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Last four month’s maximum temperature September–December 2012 maximum deciles September–December 2012 maximum anomalies
• September to December 2013 was the warmest such period on record
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Last four month’s rainfall September–December 2012 rainfall deciles September–December 2012 rainfall totals
• Extremely dry since mid-year across eastern Australia and Tasmania
• Long lead in curing (drying) time for vegetation that has been boosted by two years of exceptional summer rainfall
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January rainfall to-date January 2013 rainfall to date percentage of normal January 2013 rainfall to date
• Very little to no rain across most of the continent except the southwest
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Land-surface temperature January 1–8
The ongoing heat – January 2013 heatwave
• Temperatures >48 °C with highest maximum of 49.6 °C at Moomba in South Australia
• Over 70 per cent of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C
• 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of 40.33 °C set a new record, previous highest 40.17°C set in 1972
• Sequence of Australian temperatures above 39 °C of 7 days, and above 38 °C of 11 days straight
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Maximum temperature anomaly – January so far
The ongoing heat – January 2013 heatwave
• Temperatures >48 °C with highest maximum of 49.6 °C at Moomba in South Australia
• Over 70 per cent of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C
• 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of 40.33 °C set a new record, previous highest 40.17°C set in 1972
• Sequence of Australian temperatures above 39 °C of 7 days, and above 38 °C of 11 days straight
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The ongoing heat – January 2013 heatwave Highest maximum temperature – January so far
• Temperatures >48 °C with highest maximum of 49.6 °C at Moomba in South Australia
• Over 70 per cent of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C
• 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of 40.33 °C set a new record, previous highest 40.17°C set in 1972
• Sequence of Australian temperatures above 39 °C of 7 days, and above 38 °C of 11 days straight
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• Recent and 2012 climate conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers • Outlook for rainfall and temperature
Climate conditions and outlook
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ENSO outlook for 2012–13: Neutral, El Niño, La Niña?
• Neutral state is when the central Pacific is within approximately 0.8 °C of normal
• Simple average of seven key models, currently very close to normal
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Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly
Sea surface temperature difference from average
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• Recent and 2012 climate conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers • Outlook for rainfall and temperature
Climate conditions and outlook
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Rainfall outlook February to April 2013
• Wetter than normal for northern Queensland and a large part of southern and western Western Australia
• Drier for a small region in eastern Australia and South Australia
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Temperature outlooks for February to April 2013
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• Soil moisture • Water storages • Seasonal streamflow forecasts
Hydrological conditions and outlook
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December soil moisture and catchment streamflows
Observed December streamflow Upper layer Lower layer
Upper layer • very much above average in Western
Australia and parts of Northern Territory, average to very much below average elsewhere
Lower layer • still very much above average over
much of the country , average to very much below average for the south
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Water storage levels – current status
water.bom.gov.au
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Low or near median flows more likely Victoria Southern New South Wales
Southern New South Wales
Victoria
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Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland
Low or near median flows more likely
Northern New South Wales
Southern Queensland
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Cape York Peninsula Northern Queensland
Low or near median flows more likely
Northern Queensland
Cape York Peninsula
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Key points
• After two-and-a-half years of above average rainfall and cooler temperatures, a dramatic reversal occurred in mid 2012
• Conditions have returned to those experience in the decade or more up to 2009 • Severe heat and fire weather so far this summer • Outlook favouring cooler but dry conditions from February through April • Low or near median January to March flows most likely for the majority of forecast sites
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Severe weather season to date
Alasdair Hainsworth Head of Weather Services Branch
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Agenda • Summary of events • Weather trends • Fire weather • Tropical weather • Severe thunderstorms • Outlook
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Summary of events
• Severe thunderstorms in Brisbane 16–17 November • National heatwave late December and first half of January • Extreme–catastrophic fire weather conditions most states • Four tropical cyclones:
• Mitchell – stayed offshore northwest Western Australia • Narelle – stayed offshore northwest Western Australia • Oswald – Gulf of Carpentaria and Cape York Peninsula • Peta – active near Western Australian Coast
Bushfire damage Dunalley (Source: theage.com.au)
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Recent weather trends • January 2010–March 2012
– Above average rainfall – Active monsoon with deep
tropical air intrusions – Active storm seasons – Widespread flooding – Average tropical cyclone activity – Plenty of vegetative growth Flooding near Bourke (New South Wales) (Source: theaustralian.com.au)
April 2010 to March 2012 rainfall percentages
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Recent weather trends • April 2012–December 2012
– Below average rainfall – Increasing temperature
anomalies over land – Record warm oceans off the west
coast – Drying out of vegetation and soils
Grass fires near Narrabri, New South Wales, late November (Source: ABC.net.au)
April to December 2012 rainfall percentages
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Recent weather trends • December 2012–January 2013
– Late monsoon onset: 17 January in Darwin (average is late-December) leading to lack of tropical moisture penetration and clear skies over continent
– Lack of strong frontal activity in the south leading to no flushing of new air – Continued warm ocean temperatures to the west – Dry underlying terrain – Warming over vast parts of central Australia leading to record temperatures
Maximum temperatures 4 January 2013
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Recent weather trends
• Also, persistent blocking high in the Tasman – semi-permanent feature – blocks cold fronts from west – drags hot air southwards – associated with long dry and hot spells in
eastern Australia
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Fire weather and heatwave
• Heat associated with the recent heatwave developed over Western Australia in late December, migrating eastwards in early January, enhanced by solar heating and a lack of moisture over the continent
• As fronts have passed to the south, the enhanced winds have generated dangerous fire weather conditions over southeastern states
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Serious fire weather situation – southeastern Australia
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Fire weather and heatwave
• Multiple fires this season – often generated by lightning from dry thunderstorms, leading to one death and significant property damage with hundreds of homes, structures and vehicles lost and thousands of head of stock
• From 1–23 January 2013, Bureau offices have issued 762 spot fire weather forecasts
Spot fire forecasts – all regions
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Spot fire weather forecast
• Includes: – Detailed weather forecast for the day, – Technical details such as mixing depth of atmosphere and stability – Timing of any changes (critical) – Assumptions that underpin the forecast – Alternative scenarios, particularly with regards to timing
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Tropical weather
• Monsoon arrived in Darwin about 17 January – late compared with the average first onset time of late December
• First tropical cyclone in the Australian Region was Mitchell 28–30 December off the northwest coast
• Another more intense tropical cyclone (Narelle) 9–14 January affected a similar area
• Two more cyclones (Peta and Oswald) have developed this week and are currently located close to the Western Australian and Queensland coasts respectively
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Severe thunderstorms
Brisbane storms (Source: abc.net.au)
• A lack of moisture over land has lead to a relatively quiet severe thunderstorm season to date
• Observed severe phenomena have reverted more to damaging winds and large hail – rather than the heavy rainfall of recent years
• Some storms occurred in November including ones that formed over the Brisbane Metro area on Saturday 17 and Sunday 18 Nov causing some damage
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Impacts on the Bureau
standby standby
SARO to WARO
Staff relocation TC Narelle and Oswald
Specialist forecaster relocated to assist with tropical cyclone forecasting
14 Jan+ 17 Jan
BMTC(SA) to NSWRO
Staff relocation NSW Fires Specialist Forecaster relocated to assist with fire weather forecasting
9 Jan TBA BMTC(WA) to WARO
Staff relocation TC Narelle and Oswald
Specialist Forecaster relocated to assist with tropical cyclone forecasting
11 Jan TBA Contracted to NSWRO
Contractor NSW Fires Specialist forecaster employed on short-term contract to assist during peak demand periods
17 Dec 15 Jan
Tindal to CbMO Staff relocation ACT Fire Wx Specialist forecaster relocated to assist with fire weather forecasting
6 Jan 11 Jan
NSWRO Staff relocation NSW Fires 2 Forecasting Staff recalled to duty from annual leave
13 Jan+ TBA QRO to WARO Staff relocation TC Narelle and Oswald
Specialist Forecaster relocated to assist with tropical cyclone forecasting
13 Jan 13 Jan
WARO Staff relocation TC Narelle Forecasting Staff recalled to duty from annual leave
7 Jan 8 Jan NTRO + TCWC Remote forecasting
TC Narelle NT Staff assumed responsibility for monitoring and activation of TC warnings for WA. This provided critical rest time for WA staff ahead of TC critical-activity in the region.
19 Jan 21 Jan
NTRO + TCWC providing assistance to WARO and QRO
Remote forecasting
TC monitoring NT Staff assumed responsibility for monitoring developing QLD and WA tropical cyclones. This provided critical rest time for QLD and WA staff ahead of potential TC critical-activity in the two regions.
• 11 staff relocations to another Region or returned to duty from leave early
• 4 United States Fire Weather Forecasters on staff • Several instances of Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning
Centre taking over responsibility for another TCWC to rest staff
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Severe weather outlook
• Bushfire – Hot air has been dispersed for now and there will be moist air injected into the continent form the tropics, but the risk will not clear until the season ends or there is significant rain
• Tropics – Current monsoon and spate of tropical activity may be followed by a further burst in March
• Severe storms – Likely continued subdued activity with main risk from wind and hail; maybe some increase on activity to date however due to moisture injection
No obvious change in climate factors
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Forecast for the next week
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Forecast for the next week
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• Heavy rain and flooding through northern Queensland, extending southwards into Central Coastal districts • Hot conditions today in southeastern Australia with fire weather warnings, but change to move through
Friday with relatively benign conditions to follow for at least a few days • Some rain/thunderstorms through New South Wales, particularly over the weekend on and north of trough • Hot spell coming up for Western Australia with strong easterly winds – potentially bad fire weather
conditions • Monsoonal activity over remaining tropics – some locally heavy rain in the Pilbara and Gascoyne districts
associated with Peta and subsequent low which could cause some flooding • Continuing warm/hot and dry through South Australia
Forecast for the next week