The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America: Brazil
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Transcript of The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America: Brazil
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America: Brazil
Márcio GarciaPUC-Rio
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America:A comparative case study using a common approach
April 11–12, 2014
Diogo GuillénGávea Investments
Patrick KehoeUniversity of Minnesota
INTRODUCTION
Brazilian Hyperinflation:Protracted and Resilient
• Lasted a decade • Why? Indexation made hyperinflation possible
without output collapse;• 5 failed attempts to stabilize;• The last attempt worked: Real Plan (July, 1994);• Inflation has been controlled for the last 2 decades;• Money and inflation: annual inflation rates are well
explained by static link with annual money growth.
Not Classic Sargent-Wallace Fiscal Dominant Stabilization
• Standard fiscal-driven-stabilization logic assumes that money printing ends when a large credible fiscal adjustment is made;
• Brazilian Real was not like that;• Money hyper-printing stopped in the Real Plan• But fiscal situation deteriorated markedly under this plan• Saw higher operational deficits (primary+real interest on debt)• Only five years after stabilization did fiscal stance improve;• Punchline: While fiscal stance eventually improved, there was
no “deliberate and drastic” fiscal measures associated with the end of the Brazilian hyperinflation.
• Is Brazil a Pro-Friedman, Anti-Sargent-Wallace case?
Brazilian Stabilization: Deindexation and Stop Money Printing
• Stabilization displays a close static link between money printing and inflation;
• The fiscal deterioration, from 1995 to 1999, somehow did not derail stabilization.
Plan of This Talk
• History of the Brazilian hyperinflation;• The 5 failed Stabilization attempts;• The Real Plan: Why did it work?• Because cut money growth;• Didn’t cut deficits;• Tight contemporaneous link between money
and inflation.
BRAZILIAN HYPERINFLATION: HISTORY
Source: Consumer Price Index (IPCA) from IBGE
Jan/85
May/85
Sep/85
Jan/8
6
May/86
Sep/86
Jan/8
7
May/87
Sep/87
Jan/8
8
May/88
Sep/88
Jan/8
9
May/89
Sep/89
Jan/9
0
May/90
Sep/90
Jan/91
May/91
Sep/91
Jan/9
2
May/92
Sep/92
Jan/9
3
May/93
Sep/93
Jan/9
4
May/94
Sep/94
Jan/9
5
May/95
Sep/95
Jan/9
6
May/96
Sep/96
Jan/9
7
May/97
Sep/97
Jan/9
8
May/98
Sep/98
Jan/9
9
May/99
Sep/99
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
BRAZIL: PRICE LEVEL (in log)Consumer Price Index (log(Jan, 1985)=1)
Cruzeiro
Bresser
Summer
Collor I
Collor II
Real
Source: Consumer Price Index (IPCA) from IBGE
Jan/8
5
May/85
Sep/85
Jan/8
6
May/86
Sep/86
Jan/8
7
May/87
Sep/87
Jan/8
8
May/88
Sep/88
Jan/8
9
May/89
Sep/89
Jan/9
0
May/90
Sep/90
Jan/9
1
May/91
Sep/91
Jan/92
May/92
Sep/92
Jan/9
3
May/93
Sep/93
Jan/9
4
May/94
Sep/94
Jan/9
5
May/95
Sep/95
Jan/9
6
May/96
Sep/96
Jan/9
7
May/97
Sep/97
Jan/9
8
May/98
Sep/98
Jan/99
May/99
Sep/99
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
BRAZIL: PRICE LEVEL (in log) and INFLATION (% per month)
Cruzeiro
Bresser
Summer
Collor I
Collor II
Real
Brazilian Hyperinflation
• Lasted much longer than classic hyperinflations.
Country Beginning End Pt/P0Av Monthly
Inflation Rate (%)Av Monthly M
Growth (%)
Austria Oct. 1921 Aug. 1922 70 47 31
Germany Aug. 1922 Nov. 1923 1x1010 322 314
Greece Nov. 1943 Nov. 1944 4.7x106 365 220Hungary 1 Mar. 1923 Feb. 1924 44 46 33
Hungary 2 Aug. 1945 Jul. 1946 3.8x1027 19800 12200Poland Jan. 1923 Jan. 1923 699 82 72Russsia Dec. 1921 Dec. 1921 1.2x105 57 49
Brazil Jan. 1983 Jun. 1994 1.4x1010 20 19
Classical Hyperinflations
Why Brazilian Hyperinflation Lasted So Long?
• Indexation makes possible to cope with hyperinflation;
• No collapse of GDP growth.
• Even during hyperinflation, no collapse of GDP growth
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
0.00%
500.00%
1000.00%
1500.00%
2000.00%
2500.00%
3000.00%
Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95
Annual Inflation and GDP Growth
Inflation
GDP Growth
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20130.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00Annual Inflation and GDP growth
Annual Inflation GDP growth
% %
Why no collapse GDP growth: Indexation
• Started in late 60s;• Idea: isolate real economy from inflation;• Advocated by Milton Friedman;
o “2nd best to price stability”; • Mixed blessing:
– Easy to live with high inflation, but– Made inflation fight more difficult and politically
less desirable.• One of the reasons inflation lasted longer.
Why Didn’t Brazil Endogenously Dollarize
• In most other hyperinflation, agents gave up holding local currency and used dollars;
• Didn’t happen in Brazil because bank deposits were protected against inflation;
• To provide those inflation-protected deposits, banks held gov’t bonds that were either indexed to inflation or of very short maturity;
• Punchline: Brazil avoid dollarization by engineering a domestic substitute to its hyperinflated currency, i.e., a domestic currency substitute
How to Stop Printing Money?
• The Brazilian Central Bank could not raise much the real interest rate (passive monetary policy) or many banks would fail;
• So, money printing could not stop cold-turkey;• What made possible the end of passive monetary
policy was the end of indexation through the transformation of an indexed unit of account pegged to the US dollar (the URV, Real Unit of Value) in the new currency, the Real.
Inflation History from 1980
• 1980-85: Crawling towards hyperinflation;• 1985-94: Five failed plans
o 1986: Cruzadoo 1987: Bressero 1989: Summero 1990: Collor Io 1991: Collor II
• 1994: A successful plan: Real Plan
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%Ja
n-80
Jun-
80
Nov-
80
Apr-
81
Sep-
81
Feb-
82
Jul-8
2
Dec-
82
May
-83
Oct
-83
Mar
-84
Aug-
84
Jan-
85
Jun-
85
Nov-
85
Apr-
86
Sep-
86
Feb-
87
Jul-8
7
Dec-
87
May
-88
Oct
-88
Mar
-89
Aug-
89
Jan-
90
Jun-
90
Nov-
90
Apr-
91
Sep-
91
Feb-
92
Jul-9
2
Dec-
92
May
-93
Oct
-93
Mar
-94
Aug-
94
Jan-
95
Jun-
95
Monthly Inflation
Bresser
Collor IISummer
Collor I
Cruzado
Real
Monthly Inflation
Jan-85
Dec-85
Nov-86
Oct-87
Sep-88
Aug-89Jul-9
0Jun-91
May-92
Apr-93
Mar-94
Feb-95
Jan-96
Dec-96
Nov-97
Oct-98
Sep-99
Aug-00Jul-0
1Jun-02
May-03
Apr-04
Mar-05
Feb-06
Jan-07
Dec-07
Nov-08
Oct-09
Sep-10
Aug-11Jul-1
2Jun-13
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Monthly Inflation%
CRZ
BR SC I C II REAL
THE PREVIOUS 5 FAILED PLANS
Five Failed Plans
• Many were ambitious … but all failed
Five Failed Plans
• Many were ambitious … but all failed.
• Main weakness: continued printing money
Details of the Five Failed Plans
Cruzado Plan (1986)
• Froze Prices and wages, but:– Wages were raised at the beginning of the plan;– If inflation>20%, wages automatically adjusted;
• Pegged exchange rate to $;• Changed currency (cut 3 zeros);• Forced interest rate conversion;• Ended Central Bank automatic finance;• No effective major change in fiscal policy;• In 10 months, back to double-digit monthly inflation.
Forced Interest Rate Conversion
• Existing contract: example – Suppose cruzeiro interest rate: 14% per month;– Borrowed 1000 cruzeiros just before the plan; – Owed 1,140 cruzeiros in one month.
• Under plan: – Forced conversion into cruzado contract;– 0% interest rate in new currency;– Now owe 1 cruzado in a month.
End of Central Bank automatic finance
• Before the plan:– Commercial government bank (Banco do Brasil)
gave subsidized loans to both private agents and the government;
– Central Bank printed money to cover subsidies.• Plan:
– Forbade this practice.
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%Ja
n-83
Apr-
83
Jul-8
3
Oct
-83
Jan-
84
Apr-
84
Jul-8
4
Oct
-84
Jan-
85
Apr-
85
Jul-8
5
Oct
-85
Jan-
86
Apr-
86
Jul-8
6
Oct
-86
Jan-
87
Apr-
87
Jul-8
7
Oct
-87
Jan-
88
Apr-
88
Jul-8
8
Oct
-88
Jan-
89
Apr-
89
Jul-8
9
Oct
-89
Jan-
90
Apr-
90
Jul-9
0
Oct
-90
Jan-
91
Apr-
91
Jul-9
1
Oct
-91
Jan-
92
Apr-
92
Jul-9
2
Monthly Inflation
Bresser
Collor IISummer
Collor I
Cruzado
Monthly Inflation
Bresser Plan (1987)
• Froze prices;• Adjusted wages based on the average of the
three previous months;• Raise real interest rates to a positive value;• Fiscal: intended to keep nominal deficit to 3.7%, but actual nominal deficit was 33%.• In 3 months, back to double digit monthly
inflation.
New Constitution (1988)
• Worsened fiscal situation and made harder to adjust labor and spending:– Increased expenditures and transfers from the
central government to states and municipalities; – Reduced work week from 48 to 44 hours;– Increased firing costs and overtime compensation;– Earmarked revenues.
Summer Plan (1989)
• New Constitution 1988;• Froze prices (designed to last 4 to 8 weeks);• New currency: cruzado novo (cut 3 zeros);• Fixed exchange rate (1 Cruzado Novo = US$1);• De-indexed prices;• Ambitious fiscal and monetary reform:
– Congress refused.
Collor I Plan (1990)
• Froze Prices and Wages;• New Currency: Cruzeiro;• Monetary Component:
– Suspension of convertibility of 80% of all financial assets for 18 months.
• Fiscal Component:– Ambitious fiscal plan:
• Privatizations: some succeeded.• Other fiscal reforms: short-lived.
Collor II Plan (1991)
• Froze Prices;• Fixed exchange rate;• Opens up the economy;• Fiscal:
– reduce government expenditures:• firing civil servants (many got reinstated in courts);• closing public services (many reopened);• privatization of state owned enterprises.
THE REAL PLAN: WHY DID IT WORK?
Why the Real Plan worked• Because stopped printing money;• NOT because of credible fiscal reform;• In fact, fiscal policy got worse during first 5
years of the plan; • Consistent with Friedman;• Not consistent with Sargent Wallace fiscal
dominant regime;• Is consistent with SW money dominant regime;• Tight money now means low inflation now.
Jan-85
Dec-85
Nov-86
Oct-87
Sep-88
Aug-89Jul-9
0Jun-91
May-92
Apr-93
Mar-94
Feb-95
Jan-96
Dec-96
Nov-97
Oct-98
Sep-99
Aug-00Jul-0
1Jun-02
May-03
Apr-04
Mar-05
Feb-06
Jan-07
Dec-07
Nov-08
Oct-09
Sep-10
Aug-11Jul-1
2Jun-13
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Monthly Inflation%
CRZ
BR SC I C II REAL
TIGHT CONTEMPORANEOUS LINK BETWEEN MONEY AND INFLATION
• Money growth and inflation graph (annual tracks)-500.00%
0.00%
500.00%
1000.00%
1500.00%
2000.00%
2500.00%
3000.00%
3500.00%
Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95
Annual Inflation and Money Growth
Inflation
Monthly growth of M0
19831984
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20130.00%
500.00%
1000.00%
1500.00%
2000.00%
2500.00%
3000.00%
Annual Inflation and Money Growth
Money Growth Annual Inflation
CRZ C IC II REALBR S
• Money growth and inflation (monthly dances)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%Ja
n-80
Jun-
80
Nov-8
0
Apr-8
1
Sep-
81
Feb-
82
Jul-8
2
Dec-8
2
May
-83
Oct
-83
Mar
-84
Aug-8
4
Jan-
85
Jun-
85
Nov-8
5
Apr-8
6
Sep-
86
Feb-
87
Jul-8
7
Dec-8
7
May
-88
Oct
-88
Mar
-89
Aug-8
9
Jan-
90
Jun-
90
Nov-9
0
Apr-9
1
Sep-
91
Feb-
92
Jul-9
2
Dec-9
2
May
-93
Oct
-93
Mar
-94
Aug-9
4
Jan-
95
Jun-
95
Monthly Inflation and Monthly Growth of M0 (5 month moving average)
BresserCollor IISummer
Collor I
Cruzado
Real
Inflation Monthly growth of M0
10.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Monthly Inflation and Monthly Growth of M0 (5 month moving average)
Monthly Growth of M0 Monthly Inflation
CRZ BR S C I C II REAL
Fiscal Improvement Pre-RealFiscal Deterioration Under Real
-2.5
-0.5
1.5
3.5
5.5
7.5
5.1
0.038
3.866
0.44
1.336
-0.365
3.7 3.94
0.68 0.5 0.600514484405486 0.507284096473275
PSBR - Operational Seigniorage 5yr Average - PSBR Operational 5yr Average - Seigniorage
CRZ
BR CR I
CR II
S REAL
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20130%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
Annual Money Growth and Inflation
Annual M Growth Annual Inflation
CRZ BR S C IC II
REAL
Public Debt Increased Under Real Plan
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00BRAZIL : PUBLIC NET DEBT
Public Foreign Net Debt Public Domestic Net Debt Public Total Net Debt
(% GDP)
CRZB RS
C1C2
Real Plan
• Ingenious mechanism (URV) to get relative prices “right” in the new currency, the real;
• Exchange rate ceiling: 1 real = 1 dollar:– Given high interest rates, capital flew in and parity to
dollar became credible, serving as a nominal anchor;• Fiscal:
– Suspension of part of earmarked transfers to states and municipalities to get fiscal surpluses;
– Extra taxes on financial intermediaries;
THE URV (became the Real)
• Real Unit of Value: 1 URV = 1 US$;• March-June 94: new unit of account with
stable purchasing power;• Labeled prices in both URV and cruzeiro real;• Idea:
o Paid for goods only in cruzeiro real;o Prices in unit of account URV were stable;o Replaced URV with real on July 1, 1994.
Conclusion• In the Brazilian hyperinflation experience, the link between
inflation (and, therefore, seignorage) and money growth is contemporaneous;
• On the other hand, fiscal improvements in the early 90s did not help on the inflation front, until the 94 Real Plan, while the marked deterioration of the fiscal stance from 95 to 99 did not derail stabilization.
• Friedman-like monetary dominant regime fits data better than fiscal dominant regime as in “unpleasant arithmetic” or “end of 4 big inflations”.