The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 Paul Norman
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The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001
Paul NormanSchool of Geography, University of Leeds
understanding population trends and processes
ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%
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The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001Aim to quantify and map changes in population size and social characteristics occurring in UK’s small geographical areas between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses
Population change
• Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change
• Is the population ageing evenly?
Area characteristics change
• Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time?
Health change
• Relationship to changes in population & deprivation
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The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001
Introduction
• UK area typologies
• Technical challenges
Results
• Demographic change
• Deprivation change
• Health change
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Area typologiesONS classification: districts
• Cities & Services
• Coastal & Countryside
• London
• Mining & Manufacturing
• Prospering UK
Urban / rural: wards
• 5 level categorisation of population density
Deprivation: wards
• Categorised into quintiles
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Technical challenges1991 and 2001 mid year small area populations not comparable:
• Boundary changes
• Differences in 1991 & 2001 Census population definition (location of student enumeration)
To estimate a 1991 base population, need to:
• Adjust populations to mid-year & to a consistent geography
• Allow for changed view of level of 1991 Census undercount
To calculate area deprivation, need to:
• Create consistent variables by geography & definition
• Ensure 1991 & 2001 measures are comparable
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1991-2001 population change
Population change
Natural change
Net migration
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1991-2001 change
Urban / Rural areas
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1991-2001 change
Deprivation of areas
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1991-2001 net migration rates
Deprivation 2001
Urban / Rural 2001
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Change in average age
Average age 1991
1991-2001 age
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1991-2001 ageing
Urban / Rural areas
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1991-2001 ageing
Deprivation of areas
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Deprivation change
Townsend Index
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Deprivation & mortality
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Deprivation change & mortalityS
MR
s 2
00
1
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Deprivation change & limiting long-term illness (LLTI)
SIR
s 2
00
1
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Population change & mortality
SMRs 2001
SMRs 2001
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Population change & LLTI
SIRs 2001
SIRs 2001
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Summary
Population change 1991-2001• Populations in most urban & more deprived areas maintained by natural change gain
• Population moving away from more urban & more deprived areas to less deprived, semi-urban locations
• More urban & deprived areas younger age population than less urban & non-deprived areas
• Least deprived & most rural ageing most
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Health change 1991-2001• Mortality relates more strongly to deprivation than to larger area type with mortality improving over the decade
• Generally, areas becoming less deprived have better health than those remaining the same or becoming more deprived
• Generally, areas growing & areas of net migration gain have better health than areas contracting or experiencing net migration loss
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Further work …
Analyse by country/GOR
Aggregate by ‘OPCS’ classification
Do some writing!!