The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Special Non Taper Issue ” With John Thomas San Francisco December 18,...
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Transcript of The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Special Non Taper Issue ” With John Thomas San Francisco December 18,...
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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“Special Non Taper Issue ”
With John ThomasSan Francisco
December 18, 2013www.madhedgefundtrader.com
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Trade Alert PerformanceThree Year Anniversary!
*2013 YTD +59.25%, compared to 21%for the Dow, beating it by 38%
*December +3.2%
*First 158 weeks of Trading +114.3%
*Versus +29% for the Dow AverageA 85% outperformance of the index77 out of 92 closed trades profitable in 2013
84% Success Rate in 2013
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Portfolio Review-Maxing Out Over the Holidayswatch out for over trading and over confidence!
Expiration P&L+67.24% YTD
current capital at risk
Risk On
(AAPL) 1/$490-$520 call spread 10.00%(SFTBY) shares long 20.00%(XLF) 1/$19-$21 call spread 10.00%(FXY) 1/$101-$98 put spread 10.00%(FXY) 1/$100-$97 put spread 10.00%(SPY) 1/$173-$176 call spread 10.00%(TLT) 1/$106-$109 put spread 10.00%
Risk Off
none
total net position 80.00%
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Performance Year to Date +59.25%!!
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36 Months Since Inception+114.3%, Averaged annualized +38.1%
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Strategy Outlook-Buy the Dips*Its off to the races after the Fed meeting
*$23 billion Washington budget deal eliminates one overhang for the market
*Bull market in risk assets continues well into 2014
*Bonds have topped, entering 20 year slow motionbear market
*Free fall in yen continues
*Don’t catch the falling knife in gold,the world wants paper assets
*Emerging markets will outperform in 2014 off the back of China recovery
*Commodities looking very cheap
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The Jim Parker ViewThe Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1,000 upgrade
Technical Set Up of the week
*Buy
buy calls, risk on after announcementkeep (TBT) calls
*Sell Short
(TLT) on a rallysell (FXY) if closes here, could run another 8 handles(GLD) don’t touch(USO) expensive, but not yet
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The Global Economy-Ramping Up
*Global synchronized recovery still the play for 2014, the US, Europe, China, and Japan all grow together for the first time since 2007
*UK Unemployment falls to 7.4%, 4 ½ year low, but BOE maintains QE and zero rates. A Fed model?
*Japan Tankan survey modestly improves,capital spending rising
*October Japanese machinery orders -2.1% up to +0.6%
*China HSBC PMI 50.8 to 50.5, still over 50
*German November ZEW investor confidence survey 54.6 to 62, a 7 year high
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Weekly Jobless Claims+68,000 increase to 316,000!!
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November Nonfarm Payrolldead on the 12 month moving average
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Bonds-The Zombie Market
*Do we get $70 or $80 billion in Fed buying a month for the foreseeable future? Will head off a market crash and interest rate spike.
*Sets up a goldilocks scenario for all risk assets
*Taper will overhang the market for all of 2014, keeping it stuck in narrow ranges, will unwind in small $10 billion increments
*Bonds could take a big hit when “Great Reallocation” hits in January
*Most analysts targeting 3.5% yield on ten year Treasury for 2014, up from 2.70%,could spike to 4%
*Sell every rally
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Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) long the 1/$106-$109 put spread-tried to double but missed
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10 Year Treasury Yield ($TNX)
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Junk Bonds (HYG)
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2X Short Treasuries (TBT)-The next leg up has started
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Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)
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Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 4.72% Yield
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Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2.92% yield,Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds
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MLP’s (LINE) 11.2% Yield
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Stocks – Pause in a Bull Market
*If Fed doesn’t taper today, then it’s off to the races and new highs, but only incremental ones.
*All the volatility for the month will be concentrated in 2 hours after the 2:00 PM EST announcement
*By the way, no chance of Fed taper in December, waiting for Yellen
*$635 billion in company stock buy backs in 2013, biggest since 2006
*Japan (DXJ) the big performer in 2013, up 39%, breaking out to upside, carries on into 2014
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S&P 500 (SPX)-Another sideways consolidation has begunlong the 1/$173-$176 call spread, double on a 3 point dip
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Dow Average
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NASDAQ (QQQ)
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(VIX)-Inverted for the first time in yearsShort term VIX is higher than medium term-Wednesday Fed
hedging
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Russell 2000 (IWM)
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Apple (AAPL)-Takes a Hit on (JBL) downgrade, (CHL) deal still just talk long the 1/$490-$520 call spread
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Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM)
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Cyclicals Sector SPDR (XLY), (UCC)
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Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL)
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Financial Select SPDR (XLF)long the 1/$19-$21 call spread
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Citigroup
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Shanghai-
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(DXJ)-Upside breakout on more aggressive monetary easing
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Emerging Markets (EEM)Trapped by the commodity complex, and rising rates
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Dollar-Yen is the Big Story*Successful breakdown targets ¥125 in the cash, $75 in the (FXY), will be the big foreign currency trade of 2014, again. BOJ says room for more QE
*Japanese cash outflow into foreign bonds weakening the yen more, $25 billion in November alone
*Aussie hostage to the US bond market, dragged down by weak commodities, and killed ADM’s takeover bid for GrainCorp.
*Euro overvalued again at $1.38
*Taper talk will support dollar,then eventually push it upthrough higher interest rates
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Long Dollar Basket (UUP)-Breaking Down
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Japanese Yen (FXY)-Major breakdown underwaylong the 1/$98-101 put spread, long the 1/$97-100 put spread
long the the 1/$98-$101 put spread
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Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)-
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Euro (FXE)-
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Australian Dollar (FXA)-Talking down the Aussie again
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Emerging Market Currencies (CEW)
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Energy-Supply Glut*Libyan support shortage elevating prices
*Cold weather gives a boost
*So does China recovery
*A peace deal with Iran on nukes could drop oil prices for another $20, as 3 million barrels a day in new supply hits the market.
*International Energy Agency says US to become worlds top oil producer by 2016
*Sell on next $5 rally
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Crude-Sell the Rally….Soon
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United States Oil Fund (USO)
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Natural Gas (UNG)-Cold weather spike
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Natural Gas-It’s All About the Thermometer
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Copper-the China catalyst,BUT NOW TOP OF ONE YEAR RANGE
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Freeport McMoRan (FCX)-2013 Losers punished one last time
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Precious Metals-The Unloved commodity
*Waiting for the next wave of panic selling
*JP Morgan physical gold inventories hit new lows
*Eric Sprott of the Sprott gold find fired after a 90% draw down in assets
*Will the final bottom be $1,200, or $1,000?
*Will we see it in 2014?
*Don’t try to catch the falling knife
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Gold-Breaking to new lows
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Barrack Gold (ABX)-
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Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX)
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Silver (SLV)-
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Agriculture-No Trade Until 2014
*China has quadrupled buying at the market bottom, to 48 million metric tonnes. Is this the floor?
*Hoarding becoming the order of the day. Farmers would rather store crops than sell at low prices. Storage facilities are overflowing
*2012’s high prices cured high prices, rushed farmers to over plant
*Buy dips next year and pray for a draught
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(CORN)-
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DB Commodities Index ETF (DBC)-Yikes!The worst performing sector of 2013
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Real Estate-Slowing Down
*Seasonal slowdown also hurting
*Prices still rising, but at slower rate
*Big money has been made,expect slow grind up from here
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September S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index
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(ITB)-US Home Construction Dow Sub indexNot the Sector to Own in Rising Interest Rates
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Trade Sheet-No Change“RISK ON” Good Into 2014
*Stocks- buy the dips, running to a new yearend high*Bonds- sell rallies, trade the 2.50%-3% range*Commodities-start scaling in on dips*Currencies- sell yen on any rallies*Precious Metals –wait for the final flush *Volatility-stand aside, will bounce along bottom*The Ags –stay away until next year, no trade*Real estate- no trade
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To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com
Next Strategy Webinar 12:00 EST Wednesday, January 8, 2013
Live from San Francisco
Good Luck and Good Trading!