The Labour Market Situation: March 2014 Jobs Report
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The Labor Market Situation in March Office of Economic Policy April 7, 2014 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Deputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic Analysis
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Dr Jennifer Hunt, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Dept. of Treasury, reports on the Labor market situation for February 2014.
Transcript of The Labour Market Situation: March 2014 Jobs Report
The Labor Market Situation in March
Office of Economic PolicyApril 7, 2014
Dr. Jennifer HuntDeputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic
Analysis
22Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy2
Payroll survey: met (fairly) high expectations
1-month change, in thousands• March 2014
192• February 2014
188• January 2014
16612-month change, in thousands
• March 2013 to 2014:
2,265• Average:
189
33Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy3
Previous months revised +37,000The longer trend still shows steady growth
44Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy4
Seems slow patch was indeed weather
Private sector employment has surpassed pre-recession peak
Sector we were still monitoring was retail trade– Still a bit sluggish for third month: – +21,000 compared to average of 26,000 last 12 months
55Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy5
Employment growth by super-sector this month
66Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy6
Employment growth by super-sector over the year
77Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy7
Unemployment rate was flat…
March 2014 6.7%
February 20146.7%
January 2014 6.6%
March 2013: 7.5%
88Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy8
…employment rate ticked up again – trend?
March 2014: 58.9%
February 2014:58.8%
January 2014: 58.8%
March 2013: 58.5%
99Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy9
LFP ticked up (trend?) – though flat over the year
March 2014: 63.2%
February 2014:63.0%
January 2014: 63.0%
March 2013: 63.3%
1010Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy10
Not in Labor Force-331,000
Employed+476,000
Unemployed+27,000
Not in Labor Force84,375,000
Employed139,287,000
Unemployed5,867,000
More entrants got jobs than became unemployed
1,91
6,00
0 4,038,000
2,27
5,00
0 4,101,000
2,315,000
2,692,000
net other 9,000 net other 110,000
net other 54,000
1111Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy11
Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains highest since 1983
March 2014: 2.4%
February 2014:2.5%
January 2014: 2.3%
March 2013: 3.0%
1212Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy12
Part-time employment remains elevated,but more full-time than part-time jobs being created
past 12 months• full-time employment
+ 2,102,000 • part-time employment
+191,000 since ACA was passed (March 2010) • full-time employment
+ 6,813,000• part-time employment
+126,000
1313Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy13
Weather had reduced hours, but returned to record high (since July 1945)
1414Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy14
Average hourly earnings up 2.1% over-the-year
1515Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy15
Summary of month
Hours have recovered from weather
Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth – Keeps up with population growth– Possibly seeing movement in employment rate, participation
Wages– Pretty steady 2% annually in nominal terms– Falling inflation just under 2% is helping purchasing power– But real wages remain low
Thank you!
1717Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy17
Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
1818Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy18
Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
