The La Plata County Economy
description
Transcript of The La Plata County Economy
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Southwest Business ForumJanuary 11, 2008
Fort Lewis College’s 16th Annual Focus on Our Future:
Business and EconomicsSponsored by Wells Fargo San
Juan Market
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The La Plata County Economy
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Region 9 Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
La Plata Montezuma Archuleta DoloresSan Juan
2007 48,563 25,439 12,777 1,921 582
2006 47,936 25,217 12,386 1,911 578
2005 47,230 24,767 11,882 1,809 568
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Region 9 Population Growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2000 to2001
2001 to2002
2002 to2003
2003 to2004
2004 to2005
2005 to2006
2006 to2007
An
nu
al G
row
th in
Po
pu
lati
on
La Plata
Montezuma
Archuleta
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Region 9 Annual Wages
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.
$20,000
$22,000
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
An
nu
al W
ag
es
Archuleta
La Plata
Montezuma
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Region 9 Annual Wage Growth
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.
-1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2001 to2002
2002 to2003
2003 to2004
2004 to2005
2005 to2006
2006 to2007
An
nu
al G
row
th in
Wa
ge
s
Archuleta
La Plata
Montezuma
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Region 9 Unemployment Rate
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
Archuleta
La Plata
Montezuma
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Major Industries in Region 9
Industry 2001 2006 Change
Trade, Transportation and Utilities 26.1% 23.2% -2.9%Leisure and Hospitality 23.2% 20.4% -2.8%
Construction 10.3% 14.7% +4.4%Education and Health Services 14.2% 13.5% -0.7%
Professional and Business Services
8.4% 10.3% +1.9%
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
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Tourism
Tourism Includes:1. Airport Passengers
2. Train Ridership
3. Mesa Verde Visitors
4. Lodger’s Tax Collected
5. Skier Boarder Visits
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Airport Passenger Activity Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
Source: Durango - La Plata County Airport
e = estimate
2%
5%4%
-11%-8%
1%
12%
-13%
8%6%
12%
7%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e
Year
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Train Passenger Activity Percent Change By Year (2001-2007e)
Source: Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad
e = estimate
-32.8
24.7
3.3
-1.2
0.5
-0.5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e
Year
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Mesa Verde Visitors Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
Source: National Park Service Public Use Statistics Office
e = estimate
-6.9
2.4
-3.9
5.2
-28
14
-22
9.6
2.1
10.6 11
2
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e
Year
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Lodger’s Tax Revenue (in 1995 $s)Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
Sources: City of Durango and La Plata County
e = estimate
-2.2% -0.4%
4.0%0.7%
-1.9% -2.9%
-19.9%
4.5%6.2%
-0.6%
7.2%8.90%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
1995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006
Per
cent
Cha
nge
Year
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Skier/Boarder VisitsYear United States
(millions)
Purgatory (DMR)
2000/01 57.3 322,000
2001/02 54.4 251,000
2002/03 57.6 236,000
2003/04 57.1 268,000
2004/05 56.9 278,000
2005/06 58.8 211,000
2006/07 60.4 217,000e
Sources: National Ski Association and Annual Reports
e = estimate with regression
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Retail Sales(Adjusted for Inflation)
An indicator of tourism activity as well as population growth.
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Retail Sales (in 1995 $s)Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
3.2
-0.6
6.6
3.2
6.2
0.8 0.8 0.9
14.6
1.4
9.2
5.3
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e
Year
Source: Colorado Department of Revenue
e = estimate
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Employment
Indicates job growth in the economy.
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EmploymentPercent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
1 1.62.5
0.32.1
-5.8
12.6
0.2
6.54.9
7.28.3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007P
erc
en
t Ch
an
ge
Year
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
e = estimate
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2008 Tourism, Retail, & Employment Outlook
Tourism: Dependent upon discretionary spending
Retail: Cushioned by local spending
Employment: Stable unemployment; lower wages
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Agriculture
Includes Calf Prices and Alfalfa Hay Prices – adjusted for inflation.
A better measure would be sales, but these numbers are not available.
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Alfalfa Hay PricesPercent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
-1.4
15.7
-13.2
-20.3-9.2
35.9
3.3
12.4
-0.3
12.3
5.6
17.2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e
Year
Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System
e = estimate
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Calf Prices, Adjusted Dollar Value per Cut WeightPercent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
-23
40.1
-5
5.712.7
-5.4 -14
12.418.3
9.8
-1.1 -11
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007P
erc
en
t Ch
an
ge
Year
Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System
e = estimate
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2008 Agriculture Outlook
Increased prices in field-based commodity prices Drought across nation Corn-based ethanol
Decreased prices in calf prices Not passing input costs to consumer Ranchers/farmers not buying calves with increased feed
costs
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Industrial Kilowatt-Hours
Used as an indicator of industrial activity in the county.
Most industrial usage of electricity in the county is to compress natural gas for transmission through gas pipelines
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Industrial Kilowatt HoursPercent Change By Year (1995-2007e)
9.16.6
50.9
-6.3
6.910.2
-7.3
6.5 7
-2.3
0.5
-0.5
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e
Year
Source: La Plata Electric Association Inc.
e = estimate
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2007-2008 Observations for Oil & Gas
Given the current regulations in the oil & gas industry, the region is producing natural gas near full capacity
Certain market pundits are calling this the year of natural gas
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Fort Lewis College Enrollment
The college stabilizes the economy because of higher enrollment in the fall and winter months. This offsets some of the decline in tourism during this time period.
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Fort Lewis College Enrollment (Fall)Percent Change By Year (1995-2007)
6.2%
2.1%
-0.4% -2.8%
1.0%
-1.6%
3.6%
-2.1%-3.8%
0.2%
-5.8%
-1.0%
0.7%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Year
Source: Fort Lewis College
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2008 Fort Lewis College Outlook
Increased admission standards at FLC Comparable with UC-Boulder and CSU
Slight dip in enrollment last several years
Intermediate-term goal is 5,000 students
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Residential Real Estate
Median Price for La Plata County is used in the index.
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Median Home Price of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County
Median Home Price
$0$50,000
$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Percentage Change in Price of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2003 to 2004 2004 to 2005 2005 to 2006 2006 to 2007
% C
ha
ng
e in
Me
dia
n H
om
e P
ric
e
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Average Days on Market of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County
Average Days On Market
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Median Home Price of Condos/Town Homes in La Plata County
Median Home Price
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Total Number of Transactions ofCondos/Town Homes in La Plata County
Total # of Transactions
0
100
200
300
400
500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Median Home Price Change of Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2003 to 2004 2004 to 2005 2005 to 2006 2006 to 2007
% C
ha
ng
e in
Me
dia
n H
om
e P
ric
e
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Days on Market of Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango
Average Days On Market
020406080
100120140160
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Building Permits
This indicator uses the adjusted dollar valuation of the properties for which permits were issued—thereby measuring the dollar value (as assessed) of new construction in La Plata County.
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Building Permits (Construction)Percent Change By Year (2002-2007e)
Sources: La Plata County Building Department, City of Durango Planning and Community Development Department
e = estimate
28%25%
-19%
-7%
-24%-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e
Year
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2008 Real Estate Outlook
Rest of the nation bracing for worst real estate correction since the Depression
National builders report a bottom is not in place Single-family homes = healthy correction Condos/Town Homes = less healthy correction Building permits = significant decline
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Bank Deposits
An important indicator of the economic health of the community.
Also an indicator of the ability of local banks to make loans to consumers and business borrowers.
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Bank Deposits (Unadjusted)
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
June 30th Deposits Year to Year % Change
2002 $615,000,000
2003 $702,000,000 +14.2
2004 $778,000,000 +10.8
2005 $874,000,000 +12.3
2006 $1,020,000,000 +16.7
2007 $1,034,000,000 +1.4
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InflationDurango Price Index (DPI)
Monitors the change in the price of goods and services in our region
Durango Price Index Adjust Denver CPI for Durango housing and
income levels Assumes similar other expenditure patterns as
Denver consumers
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Durango Price Index versus Denver CPI
100.00
102.00
104.00
106.00
108.00
110.00
112.00
114.00
2001
.1
2002
.1
2003
.1
2004
.1
2005
.1
2006
.1
2007
.1
Pri
ce
Ind
ex
DPI
Denver CPI
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Annual Inflation Rate: Durango vs. Denver
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
2001 to 20022002 to 20032003 to 20042004 to 20052005 to 20062006 to 2007
An
nu
al I
nfl
ati
on
Ra
te
Durango
Denver
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Weight of Housing Costs: Durango vs. Denver
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.402
00
1
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
We
igh
t o
f H
ou
sin
g C
os
ts
DPI
Denver CPI
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2008 Inflation Outlook
Durango housing rents will probably increase
Increased expenses in commodity prices
Decreased consumer spending
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Our Web Address:
http://soba.fortlewis.edu/econoweb/
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Thank You!