Using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) To Model Fuel ...
The Kane Experimental Forest Carbon Inventory C. M. Hoover S. Rebain, L. Heath, S. Stout, J. Smith...
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Transcript of The Kane Experimental Forest Carbon Inventory C. M. Hoover S. Rebain, L. Heath, S. Stout, J. Smith...
The Kane Experimental Forest Carbon Inventory
C. M. Hoover
S. Rebain, L. Heath, S. Stout, J. Smith
USDA Forest Service
The Third FVS Conference, February 13-15, 2007, Fort Collins, CO
Why Carbon Estimates?
• Lots of activity in the area of carbon registries– 1065b revisions, CA, RGGI,
PA– International plans : UK
and CA
• Some proposals allow reporting of C uptake from forest management
• Most require estimates of baseline C (BAU case)
Why Carbon ?• National Forests starting to get questions
about carbon consequences of planned management actions
• Carbon markets are emerging– Need to set baselines– Need to balance costs of inventory and
monitoring against price of credits – is participating worth it?
• Lack of data on which practices might optimize C storage
• Tradeoffs?
Carbon accounting Carbon accounting ≠ Rocket science≠ Rocket science
...but it can be awkward...Volume to carbon approach• Need expansion factor to
account for trees below merchantable dbh
• Conversion from cords to cubic feet is needed for pulpwood (metric is easier!)
• Conversion from bf to cu ft need for sawtimber
• Also need a factor to account for tops
Did something get lost in translation?
...or cumbersomeBiomass approach• Tree by tree calculation• Cleaner approach; no scaling factors needed• Can use general or specific equations• Amounts to a LOT of computations
...and that’s just live trees !
What ELSE do we need to keep track of?
IPCC C Pool Definitions
Living Biomass
Aboveground biomass
Belowground biomass
All living biomass above the soil, including stem, stump, branches, seeds, foliage
All living biomass of roots. Roots <2 mm diameter often excluded
Dead Organic Matter
Dead wood
Litter
All non-living woody biomass not contained in litter. May be standing, lying on surface, or buried in soil.
All non-living woody biomass above the soil, generally <10 cm dbh; may include live fine roots
SoilsSoil organic matter
Organic C in mineral and organic soils to a specified depth; live fine roots may be included
IPCC Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF, Table 3.1.2
Carbon in Harvested Trees
• Some plans allow carbon in products to be counted if verifiable
• Categories: – Products in use– Products in landfills– Wood burned for energy– Emissions
• Challenging to track through time; changing markets and regional differences
in summary....
• Carbon accounting is not technically difficult
• Conducting inventories for all pools is expensive
• Calculations for anything other than small areas are time consuming – impractical for landowners and managers
• Estimating carbon in wood products is challenging
What we need is -
??
History of C Reporting in FVS
• Nick Crookston tested the idea with a prototype in 2003
• Need for easier accounting methods– 1605b C Accounting Rules and Guidelines– Move from research stands to larger scales– Requests from managers for information on C
consequences of management actions
• Attended FVS training in 2005 to explore utility of FVS for C estimation
History of C Reporting in FVS
• Obvious that most of the parts were there– FFE tracked many needed pools– Model structure would work with Jenkins
equations
• Everyone got together to hammer out the reports, data sources, and computation methods
• Don Robinson and Sarah Beukema of ESSA Technologies tackled the programming
Carbon Reporting Basics
• Part of FFE – most calculations already exist, just need to convert to carbon
• Live aboveground biomass calculations– Jenkins et al. (For. Sci. 2003)– FFE default method
• Live and dead roots from Jenkins et al.
• Harvested carbon from Smith and Heath (2006) – 1605b method
CarbCalc Keyword
See Stephanie Rebain’s poster for more information on the carbon reports.
Kane Experimental Forest
• Cherry-maple forest in NW Pennsylvania
• Mostly even-aged• About 1700 acres• Original 1932
inventory was replicated in 2006
• Pilot study of carbon inventory methods
Kane Experimental Forest Pilot
• Not a large forest, so feasible test of inventory and accounting methods
• Data are available for all pools tracked by FVS
• Growth only scenario• Simulated thinnings
KEF Carbon Stocks 2006
Tonnes C / ha Tonnes C Forest
Live tree 135 94,500
Dead tree 13 9,100
DDW 5 3,500
FF 14 9,800
Total 167 116,900
Growth Only
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
tC/h
a
FF
DDW
AG Dead
BG Dead
BG Live
AG Live
Management Scenario
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
tC/h
a
Landfills
In Use
FF
DDW
AG Dead
BG Dead
BG Live
AG Live
Change in C Pools 2006-2031
No Management
Management Scenario
AG Live (t/C) 37.3 16.2
AG Dead + DDW
17.6 10.9
Products + Landfills
0 5.2
All Pools 67 40.5
Lessons learned from Step 1• Carbon reports performed well –
everything is working the way we wanted • Allegheny hardwoods are tough test case
– Will need some work with customized functions
– Use relative density statistic unique to the forest type
• DDW default value about twice as high as inventory data
• And.......
Regeneration is a challenge...
What if? BBA, Compartment 8
• Thin BBA• Age between 85-
120• Smallest tree
removed is 6” dbh• Leave 90 sq ft BA• Regeneration
same for all scenarios, from inventory data 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Live C Dead C Harv C
ton
s C
/ac
2006
2036
2056
What if? DBH, Compartment 8
• Thin DBH• Age between 85-
120• Smallest tree
removed is 13” dbh• Leave 10 sq ft BA• Regeneration same
for all scenarios, from inventory data 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Live C Dead C Harv C
ton
s C
/ac
2006
2036
2056
Change in C Pools 2006-2056
0
2
4
6
8
10
Live C Dead C Harv C
ton
s C
/ac
BBA
DBH
Summary Statistics in 2056
Thin BBA Thin DBH
Basal Area
(sq. ft./ac)155 157
Merch Vol.
(cu. ft./ac)5186
(82% saw)
4261 (66% saw)
Carbon Stock
(tons/ac)83
(71% live)
81 (66% live)
Initial values : BA = 160 sq. ft., Merch. Vol. = 4463 cu. ft., 59% of merch. vol. is sawtimber.
Harvested Carbon Fate
0
2
4
6
8
10
In Use Landfills Energy Emissions
ton
s C
/ac
Thin BBA
Thin DBH
Points to Ponder
• In carbon accounting, short-term and long-term results almost always differ
• Short-term– Management effects generally small– Mix of products: saw/pulp has small effect
• Long-term– Management effects should increase as
stands age– Product mix should play larger role
Long-term projections are useful but....
We need to get this right.... and think about the
influence of this....
....and we definitely can’t forget about the chances of this !!
Next Steps
• Work on Allegheny hardwood specific functions
• Prepare and run most accurate simulation possible of recommended Allegheny hardwood management prescriptions
• Simulate other practices common in the region
• Onward – Allegheny National Forest. Carbon consequences of Forest Plan Alternatives
Thank You !
• Harry Steele and the 2006 inventory field crew
• Cori Weldon – data management
• Stephanie Rebain – • Gary Dixon and the rest
of the FVS team – it’s really been a pleasure to work with you !