��

�

The July 2011 Election and Party Competition in Thailand

By Dr. Punchada Sirivunnabood, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Mahidol

University

In the past 10 years, Thailand has experienced several instances of political instability. After

Thailand's constitutional court ordered the dissolution of the People’s Power Party (PPP) or the

former Thai Rak Thai Party led by Somchai Wongsawat in 2008, the realignment within the

parliament in December 2008 then saw a Democrat Party-led coalition come to power, with

Abhisit Vejjajiva at the helm on 17 December 2008. This might appear to have restored

Thailand's political stability dominated by the military, monarchy, and Bangkok's middle class;

but there was no such a thing. In April 2009, a red tide of protestors now organising as the

United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) demanded Abhisit's resignation, and the

restoration of public order saw military tanks on the streets forcing the "Songkhran uprising" to

retreat.

This April 2009 incident was a precursor to the tragedy of 10 April 2010. In early 2010 a series

of events occurred in which the political tension escalated. On 26 February, the Supreme Court's

Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions confiscated 46.3 billion baht from former

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his ex-wife Potjaman na Pombejra by selling their shares

in Shin Corporation to Singapore's Temasek Holdings. In early March 2010, "red shirt"

protesters converged on Bangkok to pressure Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva into calling new

elections. Protesters spilled human blood donated by UDD or the Red Shirt supporters outside

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's home. The situation became more intense on the weekend of

10 April 2010. By 11 April, the Red Shirt demonstrations led to the most deadly clashes between

protestors and the state in modern Thai history, in the course of which 91 people were killed.

The use of force by the government in this April incident may have weakened the Red Shirt

demonstrators but the movement has not been dismantled and is still supported by millions of

people, particularly in the North and North East. The arrest of their leaders as well as the shutting

down of their media and channels of communication has only increased the red shirts’ feeling of

being treated in an injust way. Some Red Shirt diehards have chosen to retaliate with violence

while their leaders have reaffirmed their commitment to peaceful political struggle.

��

�

Nearly a year after the political crisis centering on anti-establishment demonstrations, Thailand is

preparing for a general election on 3 July 2011. Despite government efforts to restrain the Red

Shirt movement, support among the Red Shirt movement remains strong and the deep political

divide still prevails. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s roadmap for reconciliation which was

announced in 2010 did not solve the problem. Although there have been amateurish bomb

attacks carried out by angry Red Shirts since the crackdown, an underground battle has not

materialized. At the same time, the Yellow Shirts have pursued campaigns against the Democrat

Party’s coalition government they used to support. The Yellow Shirts are now claiming elections

are hopeless. They are urging Thai voters to refuse to vote for any of the political parties under

their “no vote campaign.” Even though the elections are free and fair, it will still be a challenge

for all sides to accept the results and genuine political reconciliation seems difficult.

While elections will not solve the political divide and the post-election scenario looks murky,

Thailand should still proceed with the election. The latter is shaping up to be one of the most

competitive elections in Thai political history. A new electoral system will be implemented;

many new political parties will contest; and new faces of candidates, many of them with family

connections to the parties, will run in this election. More importantly, this is the first time that a

female heads a party that is competing for the primeministership of Thailand.

Electoral System: the Rules of the Game

Facing demands of breaking the deadlock and clearing the Red Shirt protesters from Bangkok’s

central business district, Abhisit announced on 3 May 2010 a “roadmap” to national

reconciliation and proposed to dissolve parliament within five months. The government offered

several programs in an attempt to ease the political conflict, including the establishment of the

Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand (TRCT) on 15 July 2010, socio-economic

reforms, media reforms and, more importantly, Constitutional amendments.

Although many programs were announced by the government, it seems that only the

Constitutional amendment’s procedure was successful. In November 2010, four constitutional

amendment drafts were submitted to the National Assembly for scrutinizing. These four drafts

were proposed by a top member of the Red Shirt movement, Weng Tojirakarn; 102 coalition

��

�

party Members of Parliament (MPs) led by the Bhumjaithai Party, and the government led by the

Democrat Party, respectively. The last two government-sponsored drafts proposed to amend

Articles 93 to 98 on the electoral system and Article 190 requiring parliamentary approval for

international treaties. Parliament rejected the first two drafts proposed by the Red Shirt leader

and the Bhumjaithai alliances but accepted the last two charter amendment drafts proposed by

the Democrat-led government.

The government’s draft on the new electoral system (Section 93 to 98) was proposed by the

Constitutional Amendment Committee (CAC) led by political scientist Sombat

Thamrongthanyawong. The proposed changes included altering the multi-MP constituency

system to a single-MP constituency system, and the proportional representation system, which

consists of 80 MPs, to the election of 125 MPs on a party-list basis.

In the 2007 Constitution, Thailand used the mixed system comprising 400 MPs representing the

multi-seat constituencies and 80 regional party list seats dividing the country into eight

provincial groups of constituencies. In the 2011 election, the total number of MPs will increase

from 480 to 500, representing 375 single-seat constituencies and 125 national party list seats.

Sombat argued that increasing the number of party list MPs would strengthen political parties

and thus lead to more stability. According to Sombat, the MPs’ primary responsibilities should

not focus on their electoral district but on national issues in Parliament. It is important for MPs

to concentrate on their role in the national parliament in order to improve and pass laws. As a

result, the CAC has advocated increasing the number of party-list MPs and decreasing the

number of district-specific MPs in order to ensure a stronger emphasis on national issues.

Compared to the 2007 election, there are, consequently, several changes: 1) the number of MPs

elected from party lists increased from 80 to 125; 2) the division into eight electoral provinces

has been abolished in favor of counting all party list votes at the national level; 3) there is no

longer a threshold of 5 per cent of votes to be eligible for party list seats; 4) the number of

constituency MPs has been reduced from 400 to 375; and 5) legislators will be elected in single-

member constituencies instead of multi-member seats as in the 2007 election.

��

�

Political Parties: the Players of the Game

40 political parties have been registered by the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) to

compete in the general election. However, not all political parties fielded candidates for every

constituency and party-list seat. Only seven parties sent 125 candidates to compete for the party-

list seats and only six parties sent their candidates to every constituency. In total, there are nine

major political parties that deserve closer scrutiny. Many of them were factions in the Thai Rak

Thai (TRT) Party and split from the former TRT Party to found new political parties.

The Players of the Game: Background and Platforms

1. The Democrat Party (Prachathipat Party)

The Democrat Party (DP) led by Abhisit Vejjajiva is the oldest political party in Thai politics. The

party formed the coalition government during 2008-2011. During their two years in office, the DP

and its coalition partners implemented their own “populist” policies as a means to garner support

from the poor. These policies included, for example, 15 years of free education for all, a price-

guarantee program for rice, corn and tapioca farmers and a social security net for people in the

informal sector. In January 2011, the DP itself announced its own populist program, dubbed

“Pracha Wiwat” (People’s Agenda Welfare Plan) in order to narrow Thailand’s social disparities

and to improve the standard of living for low-income people. This Pracha Wiwat Policy

consisted of nine projects, for example, the expansion of the social security scheme to cover a

total of 24 million workers in the informal economy; lowering interest loans for taxi and

motorcycle taxi drivers as well as street vendors; registering motorcycle taxi drivers to stamp out

the mafia’s influence; and offering free electricity to low-use households.

In the run-up to the 2011 elections, the DP promotes several major policies including a price-

guarantee program for rice, corn and tapioca farmers, an increase of the minimum wage by 25 per

cent within the next two years, a free health-care scheme, free electricity for low-use households

and a drug prevention program. While the DP has also tried hard to win over the poor, particularly

in the Northern and Northeastern provinces, the party does not offer policies that are substantially

different from the former Thai Rak Thai or current Puea Thai Party. Hence, it might be difficult

��

�

for the party to secure its victory in the upcoming election. Many polls indicate that the DP will

lose in many constituencies to the Puea Thai Party. On 9 May 2011, the ABAC Poll of

Assumption University showed that 36.4 per cent of the survey respondents would select Puea

Thai, the current opposition leader, while 34.1 per cent would choose the DP. On 17 May 2011,

the ABAC Poll asked 2,143 residents in 17 provinces aged 18 and above to compare the strong

points of the two major political parties—the Democrat and Puea Thai Parties—such as integrity,

vision and policies, management efficiency, foreign affairs and economic performance. The

results showed that the DP scores were lower than the Puea Thai Party’s in almost every point.

Again, on 27 May 2011, Dhurakit Bandit University’s poll revealed similar outcomes. The Puea

Thai Party received stronger support from voters. According to Dhurakit Bandit’s poll, the DP

candidates would win only 5 out of 33 constituencies in Bangkok where the party frequently

gained strong support.

This election will be a close race between the two major political parties: the Democrat and Puea

Thai Parties. The DP’s stronghold in the South is likely to remain solid and the party might gain

more votes in the Central regions. However, by simply copying the policies of the Puea Thai

Party, the DP will find it difficult to beat Puea Thai in the North and Northeast and possibly in

Bangkok as well.

2. The For Thai Party (Puea Thai Party)

The Puea Thai Party (PTP) constitutes the reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai and People’s

Power Parties and continues to be perceived as the electoral vehicle of Thaksin Shinawatra. The

party received the number 1 as its identifier for the upcoming general election campaign. It

remains popular among the urban working class and rural areas, particularly in the North and

Northeast provinces, and continues to promote its populist policy. Many of these policies are

similar to the party’s previous policy platforms and to those of the DP. This includes the farmers’

credit-card scheme aiming to provide resources to farmers for agricultural investments. Using the

farmers’ credit card, farmers can buy fertilizers, pesticides and fuel in advance at low prices. In

addition, unlike the DP, the PTP proposed to buy agricultural products from the farmers when

market prices are too low.

��

�

While Thaksin and his policies remain popular, the PTP has long faced difficulties finding a

strong leader. Ming Hwan Saengsuwan, a public relations strategist who has long worked for

Thaksin, is the leader of the party and was believed to have the best chance to lead the party in

the upcoming election. However, Thaksin selected his youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, for

this role. Yingluck will become the first female Prime Minister of Thailand if the PTP wins the

election in July 2011. However, chances are that Thaksin will remain an influential person in the

background if not the de facto leader of the party. What’s for sure, his money power will

continue to influence the PTP’s structure and policy strategies.

The Red Shirts stand behind the PTP in this election. At least 10 Red Shirt leaders compete as

party list candidates for the PTP in a bid to attract massive numbers of votes from the Red Shirt

movement. The positions in the so-called “safe zone” area in the 125 party-list seats are between

seats 1-60, with seats 1-20 reserved traditionally for party executives and financiers. But the

seats 21-60 are filled with Red Shirt leaders instead of former TRT MPs. Among well-known

Red Shirt leaders in the upper party list are Jatuporn Promphan, Natthawut Saihua and Dr. Weng

Tojirakarn, who led the protests against Abhisit Vejjajiva’s government.

3. The Pride in Thai Party (Bhumjai Thai Party)

The Bhumjai Thai Party (BTP) led by Chaovarat Chanweerakul was established on 5 November

2008. In practice, however, this party is dominated by Newin Chidchob and his faction. Newin

Chidchob was a member of the former Thai Rak Thai Party and had a tightly knit relationship

with Thaksin Shinawatra. He is also among the 111 banned Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party

executives. He and his faction later split from the Thaksin-led party to merge with the BTP in

2009 and joined the DP’s coalition government in the same year.

Like other major political parties, the BTP promotes populist policies in order to gather votes

among the poor, particularly in the Northeast. As the party’s slogan indicates: “populism brings

happiness to society.” This includes a price-guarantee program for rice and other important

agricultural products, a special ATM for the poor program, and the reduction of the VAT tax

from currently 7 percent to 5. Moreover, the party promises to raise the minimum wage to 300

��

�

Baht per day and guarantee that fresh college graduates will get a minimum monthly salary of

15,000 Baht or approximately 500 USD.

The BTP aims at winning a large number of votes in the Northeastern provinces. This election

marks the most important contest between Thaksin and Newin Chidchob in the Northeast. Since

Thaksin’s popularity in the impoverished region remains strong, BTP candidates might have a

chance of defeating the Puea Thai rivals only in smaller constituencies. However, if the BTP

does well in the Northeast, this could also contribute to strengthening the DP’s electoral victory

and its ability to form the government. It is, however, difficult at this moment to see the BTP

joining the PTP-led coalition government because many Puea Thai and Red Shirt leaders are still

angry at Newin and his faction for defecting from the TRT.

4. The Love Thailand Party (Rak Prathetthai Party)

The Love Thailand Party (LTP) was established by Chuwit Kamolwisit in February 2009.

Chuwit is the businessman and he was the member of the Thai Nation Party. The LTP has drawn

the number 5 as its identifier for the upcoming general election campaign. Unlike other political

parties, the LTP sent only 11 candidates to contest the part-list seats and did not field any

candidates for the single-member district seats.

Concerning the policy platform, the LTP does not propose any populist policies like the other

parties. Instead, its main objective is to remain in the opposition, monitor the government and

tackle corruption. Chuwit is adept at creating attractive campaigns and billboards. One of his

campaign posters depicted him holding a sledgehammer, a symbol for his anti-corruption

campaign. Another poster portrayed him with big binoculars, suggesting that he can monitor the

government.

5. The Thai Nation Development Party (Chart Thai Phattana Party)

The Thai Nation Development Party (TNDP) is the former Thai Nation Party (TNP).

The TNP was dissolved by the Constitutional Court of Thailand in November 2008 for violating

electoral laws. After the TNP’s dissolution and its party executives were banned from Thai

�

�

politics for five years, most of its MPs convened to establish the TNDP. And, Banhan Silpa-

Archa, the TNP’s leader, nominated Chumpol Silpa-Archa, his brother, to become the TNDP’s

leader. Although Chumpol is the party’s leader, Banharn continues to dominate the party’s

structure and finance.

The TNDP has drawn the number 21 as its identifier for this year’s political campaign. The party

intends to win votes in the central region, particularly in the Suphanburi and Angthong

Provinces. TNDP leader, Chumpol, said his party’s main selling point would be political reform

through charter amendments meant to enhance democracy and tackle social injustice. The party

also focuses its campaign on political reconciliation. Its leader has proposed to use sports

competitions as a way to successfully bring about political reconciliation. Unlike other major

political parties, the TNDP does not emphasize populist policies, though the suggestion that

sports competition can solve the complex social problems of Thai society appears exceedingly

naïve.

5. The Nation’s Progress for Country Party (Chart Phattana Puea Phaendin Party)

The Ruam Chart Pattana and Puea Pandin parties merged under the name of Chart Pattana Puea

Pandin Party in early 2011. Puea Pandin leader Charnchai Chairungrueng and Wannarat

Charnnukul of Ruam Chart Pattana co-chaired the merger announcement. Most of the Puea

Pandin Party members resigned from the party to join the Chart Phattana Puea Phaendin banner

in the July 2011 election. Another key figure of this party is Suwat Liptapanlop, the party’s main

financier. Suwat is among the 111 former Thai Rak Thai executive members that were banned

from politics for 5 years due to the party’s electoral transgressions. Suwat said at the press

conference that the party alliance was formed to maximize the number of parliamentary seats of

the Northeast, particularly in Nakorn Ratchasima province. The party’s platform covers five

important areas: international affairs, sport, energy, economics, tourism and social development.

The party’s policies are, for example, to encourage the use of gasohol and biodiesel instead of

benzine, to promote the use of NGV in the transportation sector and to keep a lid on the cost of

LPG for the households. In addition, the party promotes the Small and Medium Enterprises

�

�

(SMEs) Credit project that aims at providing more loans to new SMEs. Each SME would receive

one million baht with zero percent interest for three years. This would reduce unemployment, the

party promises. In addition, farmers should also receive more loans, for a combined 250 billion,

or 2.8 per cent of total credit in order to improve the quality of their products and increase their

income. Recently, the party also announced its wish to act as the mediator in the national

reconciliation efforts.

6. The Motherland Party (Matubhum Party)

The Motherland Party (MP) changed its name from Rasadorn party in 2009. Later, the party

appointed General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin as its leader. Gen Sonthi is also the party’s number 1

candidate on the party list for the general election in July 2011. Gen Sonthi, a Muslim from the

South, is the former army chief who led the military coup that ousted Thaksin Shinawatra in

2006. In this election, the party plans to win seats in the three southern Muslim provinces of

Thailand: Yala, Patani and Narathiwat. The party divides its policy platform into 9 different

sections: politics, security, international affairs, economics, culture and society, energy, research

and development, natural resources and environment, and law and justice. Unlike other major

political parties, the MP does not propose populist policies. Its major objective is to work with

Muslims in the three southern provinces. Most of its strong candidates are Muslims from the

Wada faction in the South such as Arreepen Utarasint, Natjamudin Uma, and Farida and Muk

Sulaiman. The Wadah faction used to be part of the former TRT Party and defected from the

TRT after its dissolution.

8. The Peace-Loving Party (Rak Santi Party)

The Rak Santi Party (RSP) was newly established in 2010. The party supports

Purachai Piumsombun as its leader. Purachai co-founded the Thai Rak Thai Party with Thaksin

Shinawatra. He served as deputy prime minister, interior minister and later justice minister in

Thaksin’s governments. As Minister of the Interior, he initiated a number of social order policies

to strictly control night entertainment places. As a result of this, many Thais recognize his name

���

�

and think of him as an honest politician. However, after a conflict with Thaksin he resigned from

the TRT Party and his ministerial position. He has been absent from politics for 5 years and this

is the first time that he will run in the election again after leaving the TRT in 2005. The RSP’s

policy platform does not focus on populism. Its policies include political neutrality, natural

disaster preparation, social disparity reduction, drug prevention, increasing the prices of

agricultural products for farmers, and a health care program. The party aims to win elections in

Bangkok constituencies, particularly party-list seats.

9. The New Politics Party (Kanmuang Mai Party)

The New Politics Party (NPP) was established in June 2009. Most of its founders are active in

the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) or the Yellow Shirt movement. As a result, this

party shares similar ideologies and political principles with the Yellow Shirts. Its leader is

Somsak Kosaisuuk. The party aims at winning seats in Bangkok constituencies.

The party policy platform consists of 14 important sections, for example, international

affairs, national security, media reform, energy, and labor. Unlike other major political parties,

the NPP does not promote populist policies and does not field candidates in every constituency.

Party Platforms in Comparison

Thai political parties attempt to boost their popularity first and foremost by promoting populist

policies. While major political parties—Democrat, Puea Thai and Bhumjai Thai Parties—focus

to varying degrees on populism, smaller parties such as Chart Thai Phattana and Rak Santi

Parties try to emphasize broader aspects such as monitoring government and societal

reconciliation. In general, the party platforms remain vague and little attention is given to

building distinct ideological identities. The party with the greatest degree of ideological

coherence appears to be Puea Thai. At least in the eyes of its numerous supporters, the party

stands for pro-poor and anti-establishment policies.

���

�

Concerning the populist policy, the populist policies of major political parties can be divided into

three essential areas: price controls for agricultural products, increasing people’s income and

reforming welfare policy.

1. As far as populist policies are concerned, the three major parties, DP, PTP, and BTP,

propose different methods to control the price of agricultural products in favor of farmers.

The DP proposes to increase farmers’ income by 25 percent through crop-price

guarantee, while the PTP would raise farmers’ income by using crop-pledging schemes.

The PT wants to maintain the price of 15,000 baht for each kwian (one metric tone) of

rice and offers a five-year debt moratorium for households with debts not exceeding more

than 500,000 baht. The BTP plans to implement a credit card program for farmers in

order to provide them with immediate financial resources to buy fertilizers, pesticides and

fuel in advance at “fair” prices. These policies aim at favoring farmers and the poor who

make up the majority of voters in Thailand.

2. In order to increase people’s income, the three parties suggest the follwing. The DP has

come up with “Pracha Wiwat”, a policy to increase incomes for all groups of people, for

example, by raising the minimum daily wage by 25 per cent within two years, and

pledging a new interest rate and tax breaks for first-home-buyers. The PTP offers to raise

the minimum wage to 300 baht (10 USD) per day and suggests that fresh college

graduates should gain a minimum monthly salary of 15,000 baht or approximately 500

USD. The BTP proposes to cut the current VAT tax from 7 percent to 5 as one of its key

policies for this election.

3. To reform welfare, the three major parties propose similar plans such as universal health-

care schemes and free education for 15 years from kindergarten to Grade 12. In the past,

patients received low-quality medical treatment under the government’s health care plan

and the education system is severely deficient.

Populist policies have proved to be the decisive factor behind previous election victories. This is

how Thaksin managed to get elected twice and still holds sway over a large section of Thai

society to this day. There is, however, a need for sustainable and long-term policies that do not

���

�

focus on immediate gratification of voters for the main purpose of winning elections and

recouping electoral campaign costs through illegal means once political authority is attained.

Moreover, the parties promoting populist policies hardly ever explain how they intend to finance

their lavish expenditure programs.

In addition, the parties seem reluctant or unable to introduce long-term policies that would truly

benefit the country and meaningfully include citizens in the political decision-making process.

For example, none of the parties actively promotes more public participation in policymaking

and in coming up with concrete issue-specific policies such as regarding environmental

protection and the transparent management of natural resources. Although some political parties

propose vague environmental policies, their track record in encouraging public participation and

in successfully implementing such policies remains poor.

Campaign Activities

� Billboards and Posters

The Election Commission (EC) has imposed strict restrictions on the size of billboards and

posters for this election campaign. The EC allows only two sizes for posters. A large poster can

measure up to 130cm in width and 245cm in length. The number of this type of poster must not

exceed five times the number of polling stations in each constituency. A small poster can

measure up to 30 cm in width and 42 cm in length and the number of this poster must not exceed

the number of polling places in each constituency by a multiplication factor of 10. In addition,

each candidate is strictly forbidden to spend more than 1.5 million baht for his campaign.

In the July 2011 election, spending on campaign posters, leaflets, and billboards is rising, partly

because of the increasing number of seats available in the party list system (from 80 to 125), and

partly because of restrictions on radio and television electioneering. The EC imposed limits on

campaigning via radio and television, banning candidates and political parties from buying or

renting airtime for campaigning. Candidates were allowed to campaign on air only within the

format set by the EC and within the air time allotted by the EC and executives of radio and

���

�

television stations. This EC’s restrictions increased the popularity of print media among election

candidates and parties. While print media are widely used by parties and candidates, many

candidates’ posters and billboards were vandalized and stolen. Even though candidates reported

this matter to the police, there was no progress in finding the person responsible. While inspired

by the corruption of government officials who recoup their campaign expenditures by abusing

their power, restrictions on party campaigning do not seem to be the right way to go in a society

that needs more and better party platform presentation.

� Social Media Campaign

This is the first time in Thai political history that social networks are widely used by political

parties and their candidates. Each party has its own facebook page and twitter. The parties and

candidates communicate with voters, particularly the young generation, through these social

networks. They posted pictures of their campaign activities, party slogans and speeches of

individual party leaders on these websites. In addition, each political party also has its own

website that provides information on policy platform, candidates and campaign activities.

Post-Election Scenario

The July 2011 election is one of the most interesting elections in Thai Political history. It is still

difficult to predict the outcome. However, three options come to mind. First, if the DP wins the

election, the party would lead the coalition government again with the BTP and maybe other

middle-sized parties. Second, if the PTP wins the election, the party will form its coalition.

However, it is difficult to say at this moment whether or not the BTP led by Newin and his

faction, would join this coalition government. Finally, if the two major parties, DP and PTP, fail

to form a government in one way or another, unelected veto players might once again come to

dominate Thai politics.

Given the poll results cited above, it remains extremely difficult to predict the outcome of the

election. However, it seems unlikely that a single party wins an absolute majority of votes and

can thus form a single-party government. Consequently, it seems safe to conclude that some

���

�

form of coalition-government will have to be forged with middle-sized parties, such as the BTP

and TNDP, playing an important role in the emergence of the new administration.