The Irish Economy Going Into 2011: Prospects of an Export Led Recovery
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The Irish Economy Going into 2011: Turning the Corner or Stuck on a Roundabout?
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Transcript of The Irish Economy Going Into 2011: Prospects of an Export Led Recovery
The Irish Economy Going into 2011:
Turning the Corner or Stuck on a Roundabout?
Minister’s Statement with 2010 Exchequer Returns
The Exchequer Returns for 2010 confirm my analysis that the public finances have stabilised. These figures in tandem with the encouraging economic data for the third quarter of 2010, means we enter 2011 on the road to economic recovery and that the targets set in Budget 2011 are achievable.
The Government has consistently identified export-led growth as the strategy that will return this economy to growth and generate jobs. This strategy is working thanks to the improvement of competitiveness, and the flexibility and adaptability of the Irish economy. Exports in 2010 were at an all time high and represented growth of 6.2% on 2009. This strong performance was particularly positive in the manufacturing and agri-food sectors.
As a State, we continue to borrow more than is sustainable but provided we continue to address this and other related issues on the basis of the National Recovery Plan, there are real grounds for optimism about the Irish economy ”
5th January 2011
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly GDP
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GDP at constant market prices
Gross Domestic Product
-6
-3
0
3
6
Gro
wth
Ra
te, %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly GDPGrowth Rate
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted GDP at constant market prices
Quarterly GDP Growth Rate
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Consumption Investment Government
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices
Domestic Components of GDP
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Consumption
Investment
Government
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted at constant market prices (Q1 2006 = 100)
Domestic Components of GDP
34,000
37,000
40,000
43,000
€, m
illio
ns
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
C + I + G
Source: Central Statistics Office
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices
Domestic Component of GDP
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Exports (X - M)
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices
Trade Component GDP
26,000
30,000
34,000
38,000
42,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports
Imports
Source: CSO: Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted exports and imports at constant market prices
Trade Components of GDP
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Services Imports
Goods Imports
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly imports at current market prices
Goods and Services Imports
0.2
.4.6
.81
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Other Services
Computer Services
Comminications
Operational Leasing
Transport
Financial Services
Insurance
Tourism
Trade Related Services
Misc Business Services
Royalties/Licenses
Source: CSO, Balance of Payments
Proportion of Quarterly Service Imports by Category
Service Imports by Category
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CSO, Balance of Payments
Quarterly imports on royalty/licence services
Royalties/Licences Imports
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Monthly Imports
Source: CSO, External Trade
Value of Monthly Merchandise Imports (Seasonally Adjusted)
Goods Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Production Materials Production Capital
Consumption Other/Unclassified
Source: CSO, External Trade
Value of Monthly Merchandise Imports by Main Use
Goods Imports by Use
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Computer Exports
Computer Imports
Source: Central Statistics Office
Monthly Imports & Exports of Computers and Office Machines (NACE 75)
Computers and Office Machines
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Goods Exports
Services Exports
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Goods and Services Exports
0.2
.4.6
.81
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Comminications
Other Services
Royalties/Licenses
Tourism
Transport
Financial Services
Operational Leasing
Misc Business Services
Insurance
Trade Related Services
Computer Services
Source: CSO, Balance of Payments
Proportion of Quarterly Service Exports by Category
Service Exports by Category
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tourism and Travel Debit Tourism and Travel Credit
Source: CSO, Balance of Payments
Income flows from Tourism from the Balance of Payments
Tourism Income Flows
3,0
004
,500
6,0
007
,500
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CSO, Balance of Payments
Value of quarterly exports
Computer Service Exports
30
34
38
42
Pe
rcen
t
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CSO, Balance of Payments
Proportion of total service exports from computer services
Computer Service Exports
0.2
.4.6
.81
2007 2008 2009 2010
4 Animal & Vegetable Oils
3 Mineral Fuels & Lubricants
1 Beverages & Tobacco
2 Inedible Crude Materials
6 Manufactured Goods
9 Other Commodities
0 Food & Live Animals
8 Misc. Manufactured Items
7 Mach. & Transport Equip
5 Chemicals & Rel Products
Source: Central Statistics Office
Proportion of Monthly Exports from NACE Category 0 to 9
External Trade: Exports by Category
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CSO, External Trade
Monthly Exports of Medical and Pharmaceutical Products (NACE 54)
Medical and Pharmaceutical Products
15
20
25
30
Pe
rcen
t
2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Central Statistics Office
Proportion of total exports from sub-category NACE 54 of Chemicals
Medical and Pharmaceutical Exports
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
€, m
illio
ns
2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Central Statistics Office
Value of Exports minus Chemicals and Related Products Category (NACE 5)
Exports excluding Chemical and Related Products
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Exports (X - M)
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices
Trade Component GDP
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
€, m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Balance of Goods
Balance of Services
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly exports at current market prices
Goods and Services Exports
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
€m
illio
ns
2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CSO, External Trade
Seasonally adjusted monthly trade balance
Balance of Trade
-2,0
000
2,0
004
,000
€m
illio
ns
2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Trade Balance
Trade Balanceexcluding Chemicals
Source: Central Statistics Office
Monthly trade balance excluding NACE 5 Chemicals and Related Products
Balance of Trade excluding Chemicals
