The In’s and Out’s of St. Louis Population Movements: A 2003 Update Public Policy Research...

The In’s and Out’s of St. Louis Population Movements: A 2003 Update

Public Policy Research CenterUniversity of Missouri – St. Louis

April 28, 2005

PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER

*

Migration Analysis: The Movement of People and Income

Presentation Outline:* Regional Summary and Update* Comparison of 2003 with Previous

Analysis* Selected County Level Trends* Top 15 Inter-Regional Destinations


Migration AnalysisIRS Data– Tax returns– No. of Returns– No. of Exemptions– Match records between tax years: #SSN– Change in County of residence



Reasons for Moving: CPS March 1999-2000

Family-Related Reasons

26%

Work-Related Reasons

16%

Other Reasons6%

Housing-Related Reasons

52%

PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTERReasons For Moving: CPS March 1999-2000 Percent

Family-Related Reasons 26.3

Change in Marital Status 6.2

To establish own household 7.4

Other family reason 12.7

Work-Related Reasons 16.2

New job/Job transfer 9.7

To look for work/lost job 1.3

Closer to work/easier commute 3.5

Retired 0.4

Other job-related reasons 1.2

Housing Related Reasons 51.6

Wanted to own home/not rent 11.5

New/better house/apartment 18.5

Better neighborhood/less crime 4.4

Cheaper housing 5.5

Other housing reasons 11.7

Other Reasons 6.0

Attend/leave college 2.3

Change of climate 0.7

Health reasons 1.1

Other reasons 1.8


Intra-Region Inter-Region Total

Clinton 180 39 219

Jersey 117 40 157

Madison 534 -224 310

Monroe 499 25 524

St. Clair -779 -51 -830

Franklin 633 -280 353

Jefferson 2,314 -557 1,757

Lincoln 1,436 -24 1,412

St. Charles 4,625 720 5,345

St. Louis -5,361 -816 -6,177

City of St. Louis -4,691 -72 -4,763

Warren 493 69 562

Total -1,131 -1,131

2003 Net Population Migration


2003 Intra-Region Net Population Migration

117

180

493

499

534

633

1,436

2,314

4,625

-5,361

-4,691

-779

-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

St. Louis

City of St. Louis

St. Clair

Jersey

Clinton

Warren

Monroe

Madison

Franklin

Lincoln

Jefferson

St. Charles


2003 Inter-Region Net Population Migration

25

39

40

69

720

-72

-51

-224

-280

-557

-816

-24

-1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

St. Louis

Jefferson

Franklin

Madison

City of St. Louis

St. Clair

Lincoln

Monroe

Clinton

Jersey

Warren

St. Charles


Intra-Region Inter-Region Total Intra-Region Inter-Region Total

Clinton 90 -26 64 180 39 219

Jersey 112 -39 73 117 40 157

Madison 489 -377 112 534 -224 310

Monroe 464 -4 460 499 25 524

St. Clair -1,202 -173 -1,375 -779 -51 -830

Franklin 912 -155 757 633 -280 353

Jefferson 2,119 -607 1,512 2,314 -557 1,757

Lincoln 864 48 912 1,436 -24 1,412

St. Charles 4,919 214 5,133 4,625 720 5,345

St. Louis -3,091 -1,993 -5,084 -5,361 -816 -6,177

City of St. Louis -6,173 -436 -6,609 -4,691 -72 -4,763

Warren 497 -29 468 493 69 562

Total -3,577 -3,577 -1,131 -1,131

11 Year Average (1993-2003) 2003 Net Population Migration


Intra-Region Inter-Region Total

Clinton $2,892 $552 $3,444

Jersey $1,228 $502 $1,730

Madison $12,085 -$10,387 $1,698

Monroe $14,304 $1,010 $15,314

St. Clair -$17,650 -$10,620 -$28,270

Franklin $23,199 -$2,770 $20,429

Jefferson $49,807 -$18,425 $31,382

Lincoln $24,877 $422 $25,299

St. Charles $145,908 $13,143 $159,051

St. Louis -$181,943 -$116,483 -$298,426

City of St. Louis -$84,737 -$10,370 -$95,107

Warren $10,030 $1,281 $11,311

Total -$152,145 -$152,145

2003 Net Income Migration

(In Thousands of Dollars)


2003 Intra-Region Net Income Migration

$1,228

$2,892

$10,030

$12,085

$14,304

$23,199

$24,877

$49,807

$145,908

-$17,650

-$84,737

-$181,943

-$200,000 -$150,000 -$100,000 -$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000

St. Louis

City of St. Louis

St. Clair

Jersey

Clinton

Warren

Madison

Monroe

Franklin

Lincoln

Jefferson

St. Charles



2003 Inter-Region Net Income Migration

$422

$502

$552

$1,010

$1,281

$13,143

-$2,770

-$10,370

-$10,387

-$10,620

-$18,425

-$116,483

-$140,000 -$120,000 -$100,000 -$80,000 -$60,000 -$40,000 -$20,000 $0 $20,000

St. Louis

Jefferson

St. Clair

Madison

City of St. Louis

Franklin

Lincoln

Jersey

Clinton

Monroe

Warren

St. Charles



County-to-County Net Population Migration 2003

Franklin Jefferson Lincoln St. Charles St. Louis City of St. L. Warren

Clinton 0 0 0 0 -9 -3 0

Jersey 0 0 0 0 -48 0 0

Madison 1 -15 24 -8 -304 -23 0

Monroe 0 -37 0 37 -177 -65 0

St. Clair -22 80 22 43 60 -107 0

Franklin - -211 14 50 -456 -45 -6

Jefferson 211 - 5 76 -1,766 -811 -1

Lincoln -14 -5 - -971 -361 -6 -33

St. Charles -50 -76 971 - -5,593 -170 365

St. Louis 456 1,766 361 5,593 - -3,442 149

City of St. Louis 45 811 6 170 3,442 - 19

Warren 6 1 33 -365 -149 -19 -

Total 633 2,314 1,436 4,625 -5,361 -4,691 493


County-to-County Net Population Migration 2003

Clinton Jersey Madison Monroe St. Clair

Clinton - 0 -24 0 -144

Jersey 0 - -51 0 -18

Madison 24 51 - 28 -312

Monroe 0 0 -28 - -229

St. Clair 144 18 312 229 -

Franklin 0 0 -1 0 22

Jefferson 0 0 15 37 -80

Lincoln 0 0 -24 0 -22

St. Charles 0 0 8 -37 -43

St. Louis 9 48 304 177 -60

City of St. Louis 3 0 23 65 107

Warren 0 0 0 0 0

Total 180 117 534 499 -779


County-to-County Net Income Migration 2003


Franklin Jefferson Lincoln St. Charles St. Louis City of St. L. Warren

Clinton $0 $0 $0 $0 $127 $39 $0

Jersey $0 $0 $0 $0 -$760 $0 $0

Madison -$91 -$387 $277 -$155 -$6,517 -$512 $0

Monroe $0 -$949 $0 $732 -$5,870 -$1,497 $0

St. Clair $178 $699 $232 $749 $3,072 -$2,226 $0

Franklin - -$2,972 $53 $533 -$20,477 -$173 -$76

Jefferson $2,972 - -$70 $2,736 -$41,856 -$14,453 $227

Lincoln -$53 $70 - -$16,009 -$7,878 $12 -$510

St. Charles -$533 -$2,736 $16,009 - -$159,756 -$3,176 $5,610

St. Louis $20,477 $41,856 $7,878 $159,756 - -$62,617 $4,645

City of St. Louis $173 $14,453 -$12 $3,176 $62,617 - $134

Warren $76 -$227 $510 -$5,610 -$4,645 -$134 -

Total $23,199 $49,807 $24,877 $145,908 -$181,943 -$84,737 $10,030


County-to-County Net Income Migration 2003


Clinton Jersey Madison Monroe St. Clair

Clinton - $0 -$324 $0 -$2,734

Jersey $0 - -$33 $0 -$435

Madison $324 $33 - $1,149 -$6,206

Monroe $0 $0 -$1,149 - -$5,571

St. Clair $2,734 $435 $6,206 $5,571 -

Franklin $0 $0 $91 $0 -$178

Jefferson $0 $0 $387 $949 -$699

Lincoln $0 $0 -$277 $0 -$232

St. Charles $0 $0 $155 -$732 -$749

St. Louis -$127 $760 $6,517 $5,870 -$3,072

City of St. Louis -$39 $0 $512 $1,497 $2,226

Warren $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Total $2,892 $1,228 $12,085 $14,304 -$17,650


St. Louis County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003

-9,000

-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,0001981

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Total Intra-Region Inter-Region


St. Charles County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



City of St. Louis Net Population Migration: 1981-2003

-9,000

-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0



St. Clair County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500



Madison County Net Population Migration: 1981-2003

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000



St. Louis County

Inter-Regional Out-Migration 2003

Income

State County Persons (In $ 000's)

IL Cook County 570 $18,127

AZ Maricopa County 381 $15,070

CA Los Angeles County 363 $10,390

KS Johnson County 334 $11,614

MO Boone County 321 $7,929

MO Jackson County 276 $6,306

MO Greene County 260 $6,017

TX Tarrant County 258 $7,860

TX Harris County 251 $8,046

CA San Diego County 208 $6,550

MO St Francois County 183 $3,269

TN Shelby County 182 $5,142

IL Du Page County 175 $7,221

MO Cape Girardeau Count 170 $3,150

TX Dallas County 170 $6,093


St. Louis County

Inter-Regional Population In-Migration 2003

Income
















MI Oakland County 147 $5,235


St. Charles County

Inter-Region In-Migration 2003

Income

State County Persons (In $ 000's)AZ Maricopa County 146 $3,808






MO Pike County 88 $1,281

MO Montgomery County 82 $1,495


TX Collin County 72 $2,017



FL Hillsborough County 63 $1,971


MO Camden County 57 $2,118


St. Charles County

Inter-Region Out-Migration 2003

Income

State County Persons (In $000's)KS Johnson County 149 $4,103









KS Sedgwick County 78 $1,811



CA Orange County 66 $1,316

MO Montgomery County 65 $1,142



City of St. Louis

Inter-Region In- Migration 2003

Income

State County Persons (In $ 000's)IL Cook County 192 $5,378



TN Shelby County 77 $753



MO Cape Girardeau County 64 $1,143


MO St Francois County 53 $684


TX Harris County 50 $916

GA De Kalb County 50 $584

IL Sangamon County 49 $1,056

WA King County 46 $1,265

MO Cole County 45 $534

WI Milwaukee County 42 $573

PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTERCity of St. Louis

Inter-Region Out- Migration 2003

Income







FL Pinellas County 81 $649




TN Shelby County 54 $914


MO Cape Girardeau County 50 $714

MN Hennepin County 47 $995

TN Davidson County 47 $1,243

MO Greene County 45 $644


St. Clair County


Income


HI Honolulu County 146 $1,912

TX Bexar County 144 $2,888



IL Jackson County 103 $1,945

CO El Paso County 95 $1,634

IL Washington County 88 $1,751

AL Montgomery County 81 $1,193

CA Solano County 77 $1,552

FL Okaloosa County 75 $1,278

WA Pierce County 73 $1,500

NV Clark County 65 $1,404

NE Sarpy County 64 $1,237

CA San Diego County 61 $790


St. Clair County


Income

State County Persons (In $ 000's)IL Randolph County 218 $3,250

TX Bexar County 159 $2,640


CO El Paso County 126 $2,144

IL Washington County 110 $1,981



VA Fairfax County 79 $1,944

FL Hillsborough County 62 $1,115

IL Jefferson County 62 $1,073


HI Honolulu County 58 $991

CA Solano County 57 $1,389

AL Autauga County 54 $1,064

FL Okaloosa County 51 $1,062


Madison County


Income


IL Macoupin County 520 $8,707

IL Bond County 178 $3,038



IL Montgomery County 66 $1,187

IL Greene County 60 $1,169

IL Marion County 59 $792

CA San Diego County 51 $720

IL Jackson County 50 $875

IL Champaign County 45 $732

IL Macon County 43 $836

IL Washington County 42 $746

IL Jefferson County 41 $486

IL Mclean County 39 $781

CO El Paso County 38 $651


Madison County


Income


IL Macoupin County 513 $7,797

IL Bond County 215 $3,511




IL Calhoun County 67 $1,202

IL Montgomery County 65 $1,103



IL Greene County 50 $822

IL Mclean County 44 $861

IL Champaign County 41 $636

IL Fayette County 38 $519


IL Jackson County 36 $591


Per Capita Income Annual Percentage Change: 1993-2003

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

St. Charles St. Louis St. Louis city Region


Non-Migrant Per Capita Income

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Clinton $13,474 $13,534 $14,229 $15,195 $15,962 $17,073 $17,959 $18,929 $19,976 $20,188 $20,393Jersey $12,702 $13,259 $13,765 $14,732 $15,626 $16,493 $17,190 $17,903 $19,374 $19,246 $19,376Madison $15,411 $15,478 $16,480 $17,188 $17,885 $18,821 $20,050 $21,221 $21,755 $22,023 $22,094Monroe $16,076 $16,624 $17,590 $18,226 $19,242 $20,572 $21,849 $23,288 $24,417 $24,685 $24,415St. Clair $14,141 $14,157 $14,840 $16,022 $16,969 $17,709 $18,932 $19,476 $20,557 $20,589 $20,644Franklin $13,101 $13,334 $14,248 $15,346 $16,164 $17,104 $18,182 $19,586 $20,491 $20,362 $20,553Jefferson $13,797 $13,575 $14,417 $15,535 $16,167 $17,101 $18,117 $19,093 $20,010 $20,277 $20,399Lincoln $12,109 $12,304 $12,942 $13,725 $14,621 $15,512 $16,140 $17,307 $18,338 $18,559 $18,791St. Charles $16,610 $17,104 $18,309 $19,148 $20,102 $21,458 $22,859 $24,331 $25,786 $25,464 $25,514St. Louis $21,466 $21,826 $22,653 $24,516 $26,084 $27,795 $29,571 $31,990 $34,160 $32,261 $30,991St. Louis city $13,930 $14,064 $11,209 $14,274 $14,859 $15,122 $15,695 $16,967 $17,850 $18,108 $18,063Warren $12,374 $12,599 $13,430 $14,682 $15,573 $16,922 $17,528 $19,045 $19,625 $19,989 $19,298

Total $17,244 $17,464 $17,799 $19,708 $20,795 $21,982 $23,317 $24,962 $26,401 $25,688 $25,207Pct. Change 1.3 1.9 10.7 5.5 5.7 6.1 7.1 5.8 -2.7 -1.9


1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

Clinton 0.4 5.1 6.8 5.0 7.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 1.1 1.0Jersey 4.4 3.8 7.0 6.1 5.5 4.2 4.1 8.2 -0.7 0.7Madison 0.4 6.5 4.3 4.1 5.2 6.5 5.8 2.5 1.2 0.3Monroe 3.4 5.8 3.6 5.6 6.9 6.2 6.6 4.8 1.1 -1.1St. Clair 0.1 4.8 8.0 5.9 4.4 6.9 2.9 5.6 0.2 0.3Franklin 1.8 6.9 7.7 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.7 4.6 -0.6 0.9Jefferson -1.6 6.2 7.8 4.1 5.8 5.9 5.4 4.8 1.3 0.6Lincoln 1.6 5.2 6.1 6.5 6.1 4.0 7.2 6.0 1.2 1.3St. Charles 3.0 7.0 4.6 5.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.0 -1.2 0.2St. Louis 1.7 3.8 8.2 6.4 6.6 6.4 8.2 6.8 -5.6 -3.9St. Louis city 1.0 -20.3 27.3 4.1 1.8 3.8 8.1 5.2 1.4 -0.2Warren 1.8 6.6 9.3 6.1 8.7 3.6 8.7 3.0 1.9 -3.5Total 1.3 1.9 10.7 5.5 5.7 6.1 7.1 5.8 -2.7 -1.9

*

Migration Analysis: Conclusions* Decentralization Continues* Inter-Regional Net Out-Migration

Declines * St. Louis County Net Out-Migration to

All Counties, but City and St. Clair County* Inter-Regional Losses Centered in St.

Louis County* City Net Out-Migration Improving* St. Charles Net In-Migration has

Leveled Off;* St. Charles Inter-Regional In-

Migration Increasing * Inter-regional Migration is Firm

Specific Connection


The In’s and Out’s of St. Louis Population Movements: A 2003 Update Public Policy Research...

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