The Immigration Issue and the 2008 Presidential Election: Exit Poll of Hispanic Voters in Miami-Dade...
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The Immigration Issue and the 2008 The Immigration Issue and the 2008 Presidential Election:Presidential Election:Exit Poll of Hispanic Voters in Miami-Exit Poll of Hispanic Voters in Miami-Dade County, Florida and Los Angeles Dade County, Florida and Los Angeles County, CaliforniaCounty, California
November 6, 2008November 6, 2008
22
MethodologyMethodology
Sample sizeSample size 2,102 interviews with Latin 2,102 interviews with Latin American immigrant voters in American immigrant voters in Miami and Los AngelesMiami and Los Angeles
Dates of Dates of interviewsinterviews
October 23 – November 4, 2008October 23 – November 4, 2008
Margin of Margin of errorerror
2 percentage points2 percentage points
Languages of Languages of interviewsinterviews
Spanish, EnglishSpanish, English
33
Demographics of Latin Demographics of Latin American Immigrant American Immigrant ElectorateElectorate The Latin American immigrant The Latin American immigrant
electorate does not include U.S. born electorate does not include U.S. born Hispanic voters, Cuban refugee Hispanic voters, Cuban refugee voters, or Puerto Rican voters.voters, or Puerto Rican voters.
The Latin American immigrant The Latin American immigrant electorate represents 40 percent electorate represents 40 percent (approximately 4 million) of the (approximately 4 million) of the overall Hispanic vote in the United overall Hispanic vote in the United States.States.
44
The Hispanic The Hispanic ElectorateElectorate
50%
3% 7%
40%
US born HispanicsLatin American immigrantsCuban refugeesPuerto Ricans
55
Country of BirthCountry of BirthLatin American Immigrant Latin American Immigrant VotersVoters
15%
10%60%
15%
South America
Central America
Dominican Republic
Mexico
66
AgeAgeLatin American Immigrant Latin American Immigrant VotersVoters
12%
34%
12% 3%
39%
18-2930-4950-6465-7475+
77
Decade of ArrivalDecade of ArrivalLatin American Immigrant Latin American Immigrant VotersVoters
13%18%
40%
22%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1960s orbefore
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
88
Presidential VotePresidential Vote
Immigrant voters from Latin Immigrant voters from Latin America voted overwhelming for America voted overwhelming for Barack Obama for President.Barack Obama for President.
Obama had the strongest support Obama had the strongest support among Mexicans, Dominicans, among Mexicans, Dominicans, and young voters (ages 18-29).and young voters (ages 18-29).
99
Presidential VotePresidential VoteLatin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters
78%
22%
Barack Obama
John McCain
1010
Presidential VotePresidential VoteBy Country of BirthBy Country of Birth
21%
79%
17%
83%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
DominicanRepublic
Mexico BarackObama
JohnMcCain
1111
Presidential VotePresidential VoteBy Country of BirthBy Country of Birth
36%64%
62%38%
14%86%
30%70%
32%68%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Peru
Venezuela
Argentina
Colombia
South America
BarackObama
JohnMcCain
1212
Presidential VotePresidential VoteBy Country of BirthBy Country of Birth
25%75%
36%
64%
70%30%
39%61%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Honduras
Guatemala
Nicaragua
CentralAmerica
BarackObama
JohnMcCain
1313
Presidential VotePresidential VoteLatin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters By AgeBy Age
40%60%
34%66%
33%67%
16%84%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
65+
50-64
30-49
18-29
BarackObama
JohnMcCain
1414
Presidential VotePresidential VoteThe Hispanic VoteThe Hispanic Vote
33%
67%
22%
78%
38%
61%
69%
31%
23%
77%
0%
10%
20%30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%90%
100%
AllHispanics
LatinAmerican
immigrants
US bornHispanics
Cubanrefugees
PuertoRicans
BarackObama
JohnMcCain
1515
The Immigration IssueThe Immigration Issue
The immigration issue is The immigration issue is considered to be “very important” considered to be “very important” by more than three-fifths of all by more than three-fifths of all Latin American immigrant voters. Latin American immigrant voters. This is especially true among This is especially true among those from Central America and those from Central America and the more recent arrivals.the more recent arrivals.
1616
How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters
63%
26%
11%
Very importantSomewhat importantNot important
1717
How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth
63%
26%
11%
71%
22%
7%
67%
28%
5%
65%
29%
6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
SouthAmerica
CentralAmerica
DominicanRepublic
Mexico
Very important Somewhat important Not important
1818
How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters By Decade of ArrivalBy Decade of Arrival
51%
31%
18%
70%
25%
5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1960s or before 1990s / 2000s
Very important Somewhat important Not important
1919
How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth
54%
34%
12%
43%
34%
23%
51%
40%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cuban refugees Puerto Ricans US born Hispanics
Very important Somewhat important Not important
2020
Immigration PolicyImmigration Policy
Latin American immigrant voters are Latin American immigrant voters are united on immigration policy. More than united on immigration policy. More than 90 percent support giving illegal 90 percent support giving illegal immigrants a chance to legalize their immigrants a chance to legalize their status and eventually become citizens.status and eventually become citizens.
A rise in discrimination against Hispanics A rise in discrimination against Hispanics because of the tone of the immigration because of the tone of the immigration debate contributed to the rejection of debate contributed to the rejection of the Republican nominee for President.the Republican nominee for President.
2121
Which statement is closer to Which statement is closer to your opinion?your opinion?Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth
7%
93%
9%
91%
1%
99%
10%
90%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SouthAmerica
CentralAmerica
DominicanRepublic
Mexico
Give the majority ofthe 12 million illegalimmigrants achance to legalizetheir status andeventually becomecitizens
Encourage themajority of the 12million illegalimmigrants in theUS to leave thecountry
2222
Which statement is closer to Which statement is closer to your opinion?your opinion?By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth
18%
82%
13%
87%
15%
85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cubanrefugees
Puerto Ricans US bornHispanics
Give the majority ofthe 12 million illegalimmigrants achance to legalizetheir status andeventually becomecitizens
Encourage themajority of the 12million illegalimmigrants in theUS to leave thecountry
2323
Do you agree or disagree with the following Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?statement?
Discrimination against Hispanics in the Discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. has increased in the last two years U.S. has increased in the last two years because of the tone and rhetoric from the because of the tone and rhetoric from the immigration debate.immigration debate.Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters
67%
33%
Agree
Disagree