The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives project: analysis on the low-carbon technology mix for...
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© OECD/IEA 2015 The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives project: analysis on the low-carbon technology mix for long-term sustainable energy scenarios Climate Change: Implications for Technological Developments and Industrial Competitiveness Madrid, 4 th November 2015 Daniele Poponi Energy Technology and Policy Division International Energy Agency
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Transcript of The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives project: analysis on the low-carbon technology mix for...
© OECD/IEA 2015
The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives project: analysis on the low-carbon technology mix for long-term sustainable energy scenarios
Climate Change: Implications for Technological Developments and Industrial Competitiveness Madrid, 4th November 2015 Daniele Poponi Energy Technology and Policy Division International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2015
ETP 2014 ETP 2015 ETP 2016 ETP 2017 Part 1. Setting the Scene
Global Outlook, Tracking Clean Energy Progress
Part 2. Driving the Change (Thematic Focus) * Harnessing Electricity’s
Potential
Mobilising Innovation to
Accelerate Climate Action
Building Urban Energy Systems
TBD • Securing sustainable
resources • Investing in
sustainable infrastructure
Partner Country
India China Mexico TBD (Indonesia?)
ETP publication programme
© OECD/IEA 2014
Technology mix for carbon emissions reduction in the 2DS
A portfolio-approach is needed for a least-cost low-carbon scenario
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
6DS
2DS
Source: ETP 2015
© OECD/IEA 2014
Primary energy mix in the ETP scenarios
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2012
Foss
il
Non
-foss
il
2050
2012
Foss
il
Non
-foss
il
2050
2012
Foss
il
Non
-foss
il
2050
6DS 4DS 2DS
EJ
Other renewables
Hydro
Biomass and waste
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
The primary energy mix is much more diversified in the 2DS Source: ETP 2015
© OECD/IEA 2015
Thanks to 40 years of innovation efforts, solar PV generation is an increasingly cost competitive option
0
3
6
9
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GW
USD
/kW
h
Levelised Cost of Electricity Installed capacity
Cost of electricity generated and utility-scale PV capacity installations in Germany
Some renewables are on fast-track deployment
Source: ETP 2015
© OECD/IEA 2014
Energy efficient technologies are also constantly improving
Fuel economy is improving as policy increasingly drives the deployment of more efficient vehicle technologies
Fuel economy trends to 2025 for selected countries
© OECD/IEA 2014
The use of fossil fuels is gradually more efficient and sustainable
The economic benefit of improved power generation efficiency is partly offsetting poor low-carbon policies
Carbon intensity of coal-fired power generation
© OECD/IEA 2015
Aggressive cost reductions are needed in the near term to make these projections a reality
Projected Levelised Cost of Electricity of coal power generation in Asia
Assumptions on Capture Cost and Performance in the 2DS
CCS: from early stage support to future technology competitiveness
© OECD/IEA 2014
Clean energy deployment is not ramping up fast enough
Evidence shows that despite continued progress in many areas, for the first time none of the technologies are in line with 2DS goals
© OECD/IEA 2014
Supporting Energy Innovation: The right policy at the right time
The right support depends on the maturity of the technology and the degree of market uptake
© OECD/IEA 2015
Annual energy-related direct CO2 emissions in the industrial sector in the 2DS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
2
Energy efficiency Fuel and feedstock switching Recycling Innovative processes
6DS
2DS
Source: ETP 2015
Innovation is essential for sustainable growth in the industrial sector
The deployment of innovative technologies is crucial to making a 2DS scenario possible
© OECD/IEA 2014
There is no “one-size fits all” solution that can meet all local requirements
National circumstances and resources will drive different technology portfolios and pathways
Regional technology shares in primary energy supply
Source: ETP 2015
© OECD/IEA 2015
Photo Credit flickr.com - AIDG (2015)
Innovation in emerging economies has delivered….
Photo Credit: Pallava Bagla/Corbis - the Guardian (2011)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Linking urban electricity and heat systems
ETP 2016: Building Sustainable Urban Energy Systems
Source: Fraunhofer IBP/IEA-EBC Annex 64 (2015)
Urban areas offer a significant potential for low-carbon technology deployment
© OECD/IEA 2014
Thank you
© OECD/IEA 2015
Investment in our future pays off…
…and it is cost effective to make the transition
© OECD/IEA 2014
Energy-related CO2 emission abatement by region between 6DS and 2DS
In the 2DS, select emerging economies contribute the majority of energy-related CO2 emissions reduction.
Global energy-related Co2 reductions between 6DS and 2DS by region
6DS
2DS
