The ICPD Programme of Action and International Migration at the Start of the 21st Century Ronald C....

The ICPD Programme of Action The ICPD Programme of Action and International Migration at and International Migration at the Start of the 21st Centurythe Start of the 21st Century

Ronald C. Schoenmaeckers, Ph.D.

Scientific Director CBGS

CBGS - Population and Family Study Centre (Flemish Community, Belgium)

The objective of this presentation is to give a statistical overview on

international migration

… in not more than 20 minutes.

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“Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state.”

“Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.”

Article 13, Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted and proclaimed by the General Assembly of the UN on 10

December, 1948

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(a) To address the root causes of migration, especially those related to poverty;

(b) To encourage more co-operation and dialogue between countries of origin and countries of destination in order to maximise the benefits of migration to those concerned and increase the likelihood that migration has positive consequences for the development of both sending and receiving countries;

(c) To facilitate the reintegration process of returning migrants.

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As ‘objectives’, the PoA states (para 10.2):

(a) “Governments of countries of origin and of countries of destination should seek to make the option of remaining in one’s country viable for all people. To that end, efforts to achieve sustainable economic and social development, ensuring a better economic balance between developed and developing countries and countries with economies in transition should be strengthened” (para 10.3);

(b) “Governments of countries of destination are invited to consider the use of certain forms of temporary migration, such as short-term and project-related migrations, as a means of improving the skills of nationals of countries of origin, especially developing countries and countries with economies in transition” (para 10.5).

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As part of the list of ‘actions’ to be taken, the PoA mentions, among others:

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Trend in total migrant stock (millions), 1960-2005

By major area

0

50

100

150

200

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

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By major area

0

50

100

150

200

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

LDR

MDR

190m

75m

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By major area

0

50

100

150

200

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

LDR

MDR

190m

75m

• A nearly threefold increase over last 45 years

• About 63% of all migrants worldwide are in More Developed Countries

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Asia

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Europe

Asia

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

N.America

Europe

Asia

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Africa

N.America

Europe

Asia

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

L.America

Africa

N.America

Europe

Asia

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Asia

Europe

N.America

Africa

L.America

Oceania

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By major region

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Asia

Europe

N.America

Africa

L.America

Oceania

• Important differences between regions

• Largest relative increases are observed for Europe and Northern America

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As percentage of the population

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

World average

2.5% 3.0%

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As percentage of the population

By major region

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Oceania (>15%)

N.America (13%)

Europe (8%)

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Share of female migrants

42%

45%

48%

51%

54%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

World average

47%

50%

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By major region

42%

45%

48%

51%

54%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Africa

N.America

Asia

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By major region

42%

45%

48%

51%

54%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Africa

N.America• In Northern America (and since shortly

also in Europe, Oceania, and Latin America) about 51% of migrants are women

• Sharp increase in the number of female migrants in Africa (while decline in Asia)

Asia

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Share of refugees

0%

8%

16%

24%

32%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

World average

12%(1990)

7%

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Share of refugees

0%

8%

16%

24%

32%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

World average

12%(1990)

7%

• Erratic pattern

• Number of refugees is function of conflict

• The latter becomes especially obvious when looking at the numbers by region

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Share of refugees

By major region

0%

8%

16%

24%

32%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Africa

33% 36%

Asia

L.America

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Net migration in Europe, 1960-2002/3

Net migration rate=

in-migration – out-migrationper 100 population

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Member States of the Council of Europe

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

/200

3

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-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

/200

3

UKR

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-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

/200

3

S

UKR

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-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

/200

3

TRUKR

S

CBGS



-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

/200

3

UKR

S

TR

• Relatively low net migration rate (on ‘average’, only 0.5%)

• Quite large differences between individual countries

• Important fluctuations by year

• Some ‘migrant’ countries may also be countries of destination for other countries (e.g. TR)

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Percentage of foreign population, 1971-2004

Former EU15

0

3

6

9

12

1971 1981 1991 2002 2004

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Former EU15

0

3

6

9

12

1971 1981 1991 2002 2004

B

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Former EU15

0

3

6

9

12

1971 1981 1991 2002 2004

B

A

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Former EU15

0

3

6

9

12

1971 1981 1991 2002 2004

B

A

E

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Former EU15

0

3

6

9

12

1971 1981 1991 2002 2004

A

B

E

S

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Former EU15

0

3

6

9

12

1971 1981 1991 2002 2004

S

B

A

E

DK

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Former EU15

0

3

6

9

12

1971 1981 1991 2002 2004

S

B

A

E

DK

• Some countries have experienced a threefold increase since the 1970s

• However, with the exception of Luxembourg, where since 1991 proportions of more than 30% are observed (not shown), in no country the foreign population exceeds 9.5% of the total population

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Recent trends in inflows of foreign labour, 1998-2002

Selected Western European countries

‘1998’-estimate = 1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

B




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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

B

I




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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

B

P

I




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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

B

P

I




A

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

B

P

I




A

• Fluctuations by year (depending on economic achievement)

• Differences between countries, e.g. Ireland (not shown) experiencing increases of more than x4

• The median indicates an overall increase of foreign labour migration of 12% per annum

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

B

P

I




A

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

P

A

B

I

Md

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Recent trends in asylum applications, 1998-2002



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

CBGS




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

S

CBGS




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

I

S

CBGS




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

B

I

S

CBGS




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

B

I

S

• Some countries - Italy, Belgium, and also Sweden - seem to have been able to limit the inflow of asylum seekers

• These individual ‘successes’ have not halted however the inflow of asylum seekers to Western Europe …

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

B

I

S

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

A

B

I

S

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

A

GR

S

I

B

CBGS




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

A

GR

S

I

B

• These patterns suggest that the country of destination asylum seekers ‘choose’ depends on the legislation that is in effect.

• When one country ‘closes’ its borders, asylum seekers will try their luck in another one.

(a) “Many of the migration problems now confronting governments [in Europe] have resulted from a piecewise approach to specific problems, such as economic requirements, social cohesion, asylum, illegality or return” (Salt, 2005);

(b) Beginning of 2005 the European Commission published a Green Paper on ‘Economic Migration’. However, the objective is merely to get to a ‘comprehensive management strategy’ (among EU Member States) – the paper does not explicitly address the root causes of migration related to poverty;

(c) In spite of the increasing number of international migrants, countries cannot agree on organising a UN Conference on international migration.

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Some concluding remarks:

Many thanks for your attention

The ICPD Programme of Action and International Migration at the Start of the 21st Century Ronald C....

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