The Human Mortality Database2002-2015

www.mortality.org

Magali Barbieri, Associate Director, HMD

Department of Demography,University of California, Berkeley

Meeting of the IAA Mortality Working Group

Vancouver, Canada, October 16, 2015

Overview of Presentation

• The HMD collection

– Background

– Contents

• New development

– Cause-of-death data

– U.S. State/Counties database

Background

• Goal of the HMD:

To provide detailed mortality and population data free of charge to all persons interested in the history of human longevity

• Users of HMD data:

Researchers, students

Journalists

Policy analysts

Business world (market research, actuaries)

Who is responsible for the HMD?

Two teams of researchers:

• Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research (in Rostock, Germany)led by Vladimir Shkolnikov, Director

• UC Berkeley (Dept of Demography)led by Magali Barbieri, Associate Director(previously John Wilmoth, Founding Director)

Who funds the HMD?

• National Institute on Aging (two R01 awards)

• Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging (CEDA - Berkeley)

• Max Planck Society (via MPIDR - Rostock)

• French Institute of Demographic Studies (INED - Paris)

and soon the Society of Actuaries

What is in the HMD?• Detailed historical data and supporting

documentation for 38 national populations:

– Death counts and estimated population exposures (person-years lived) at the finest detail possible

– Original estimates of age-specific death rates and life tables in various formats (age x time)

• Computed using various forms of input data:

– Death counts from national statistical offices

– Census counts

– Birth counts

– Official population estimates

Guiding principles• Comparability

– Over time (from 1751 to 2014)

– Across countries (38 mostly high-income)

• Accessibility (free and relatively painless)

• Flexibility (estimates in multiple formats)

• Reproducibility (all input data included, full documentation provided)

• Quality control (procedures to identify and correct errors in data or calculations)

A multi-step process1. Collection and formating of input data

2. Birth count processing (used to estimate cohort size at birth)

3. Death count processing : redistribution of age unknown and redistribution of counts in 5/10-year age groups

4. Construction of population estimates (from Census data + Vital statistics; re-estimation at ages 80+ years) => exposure

5. Verification of input data consistency

6. Calculation of death rates with adjustment for territorial change

7. Construction of single-year of age life tables for single calendaryears

8. Construction of abridged and multi-year life tables

9. Verification of output (internal and external checks)

10. Documentation and publication

Additional information in

HMD, May 2002: 17 countries

Austria France Norway

Bulgaria Germany Russia

Canada Hungary Sweden

Denmark Italy Switzerland

England & Wales Japan United States

Finland Netherlands

HMD, September 2015: 38 countriesAustralia Finland Latvia Slovenia

Austria France Lithuania Spain

Belarus Germany Luxembourg Sweden

Belgium Greece Netherlands Switzerland

Bulgaria Hungary New Zealand Taiwan

Canada Iceland Norway Ukraine

Chile Ireland Poland United States

Czech Republic Israel Portugal United Kingdom

Denmark Italy Russia Spain

Estonia Japan Slovakia

Geographic location of HMD countries

HMD series by country and time period

Sweden

France (Civilian)

France (Total)

Denmark

Iceland

England and Wales (Civilian)

England and Wales (Total)

Belgium

Norway

The Netherlands

Scotland

Italy

Switzerland

Finland

New Zealand (non-Maori)

Spain

Northern Ireland

The United Kingdom

Canada

Australia

The United States

Portugal

Bulgaria

Austria

Japan

The Czech Republic

New Zealand (Maori)

New Zealand (Total)

Slovekia

Ireland

Hungary

West Germany

East Germany

Belarus

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Russia

Poland

Ukraine

Luxembourg

Taiwan

Slovenia

Israel

Germany (Total)

Greece

Chile

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Period life tables only

Period and cohort life tables

Countries/areas with >1 data series

• England and Wales (Total/Civilian)

• France (Total/Civilian)

• Germany (Unified/East/West)

• New Zealand (Total/Maori/Non Maori)

• United Kingdom (E&W, Scotland, N. Ireland)

As of September 2015, HMD data

represent roughly 80 billion person-years of exposure

Publications

• At the end of 2014, there were at least:

– over 1,000 journal articles

– 142 books or book chapters

– 58 dissertations or theses

– 38 official reports or statistical compilations

– 300 technical reports and scientific working papers

citing the HMD as a data source

• Over the past 9 months: + 800 journal articles

HMD Project Staff

• Directors (2)

• Country specialists (9)

• Administrative assistants (2)

• Others providing technical support (3 at UC)

Expanding the collection

• Causes of death (UC Berkeley + INED)

• Sub-national data

– States/counties of the United States (UCB)

– Other sub-national populations (MPIDR)

Including cause-of-death data

• For all countries with cause-of-death data following the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)

• Back to 1950 or latest year available

• Cause-of-death fractions, death counts and age-specific death rates (consistent with all-cause series)

• Shortlist of about 90 exclusive cause-of-death categories (compatible with EUROSTAT and NCHS)

Main issueChanges in classification introducing disruptions

United States, Deaths from Pneumonia, 1959-2007

SolutionAdjustment via bridge-coding studies when possible

United States,

Pneumonia 1979-2007

U.S. State/County Mortality Database

• HMD-like mortality series with same basic principles (comparability, accessibility, flexibility, reproducibility, quality control)

• Back to 1959 (State) or 1982 (counties)

• With cause-of-death data (shortlist)

• Main issue: large random fluctuation => small populations (state COD, counties…); require additional methodological developments.

Additional developments.. ?

• Seeking users’ inputs (Advisory group)

• Open to collaborations

• Suggestions for additional funding welcome

Magali Barbieri

magali@demog.berkeley.edu