Project Management and Complexity Theory

© Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 1

The Human Heart of Project Management.

Dr. Terry Cooke-DaviesManaging Director, Human Systems Limited

Adjunct Professor, University of Technology, Sydney

Honorary Research Fellow, University College, London.

Project Management and Complexity Theory

© Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 2

Today’s Agenda

• Project management’s roots in “control theory”, and some unanswered paradoxes.

• Some assumptions “smuggled in” to project management along with “control theory”.

• Insights from complexity sciences. Are they just the latest “fad”, or a radical rethink of “management”?

• What might these insights mean for the management of projects?

Project Management and Complexity Theory

© Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 3

Project Management’s Roots in Control

Proto-Projects 6000+

Dramatic increase in work done as projects.

Engineering 150+

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Gantt etc. 100+

Military 60+

Professional Associations 40

North Sea Oil 30

PC/ICT 20

Pharma R&D 10+

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Maturity of Different Industries

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Projectization

Leadership

Business

Multi-projects

Systems

Authorization

Information

Team types

PM Capability

Matrix

Big PharmaMedium PharmaDefencePetrochem

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Some Paradoxes

Project management expenditure and activity is rising

BUTlittle evidence that project results

are improving proportionately& “trainwrecks” still happen

regularly.

Pressure to improve resource productivity is rising in many

industriesBUT

productivity is not responding as a result of project management.

Major efforts are made to “learn lessons” from projects and transfer

them across the organization.BUT

PM focus remains on “control”.

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© Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 6

Two Competing Explanations

“We DO project management pretty well, but senior management doesn’t understand us, and so the environment is inappropriate”

“We DO project management pretty well, but senior management doesn’t understand us, and so the environment is inappropriate” “Project Management is

based on control theory/ operational research, and this is inadequate to investigate all aspects of life that bear on projects.”

“Project Management is based on control theory/ operational research, and this is inadequate to investigate all aspects of life that bear on projects.”

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Deeply-held Assumption 1: Systemic Control

System/Process

Controller/Manager

Goals

Classic project management thinking assumes “first-order” control – goals remain constant (or at least under change control).

Gaps in benefits imply “second-order” control – goals are subject to change – system is more flexible, and more difficult to control.

System/Process

Target

ActualOperations

Goals

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Deeply Held Assumption 2:Individual is Distinct from Group.

Project Management and Complexity Theory

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A Radically Different View

Separation: steer to avoid crowding local flockmates

Alignment: steer towards the average heading of local flockmates

Cohesion: steer to move toward the average position of local flockmates

Source: Craig Reynolds http://www.red3d.com/cwr/boids/

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© Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 10

“Complexity Theory” Has At Least Three Strands.

• Chaos theory and derivatives.– e.g. Glueck, 1988; Stewart, 1989.– Strange attractors, fractals.

• Dissipative structure theory– e.g. Prigogene– Bifurcations, spontaneous self-organization.

• Complex adaptive systems– e.g. Reynolds– Agent-based systems, spontaneous adaptation, self-

organization “at the edge of chaos”.– “Complex organizational response” (Stacey and team) is one

particular aspect.

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“Organization” As “Communicative Relationships”.

• Conversation

• Responsive communicative action

• Turn-taking

• Local language practices

• Self-organization

• Power, inclusion & exclusion

• Fantasy & unconscious processes

• Organization as communicating in the living present.

Source: Stacey (2001) Complex Responsive Processes.

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Implications For PM Theory.

As “flocking” is an emergent property of essential bird behaviour. . . .

. . . . So “organization”, “knowledge” and so on are emergent properties of the essential human behaviour of communicating – of “complex responsive processes”.

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Corroboration? 2 “Straws in the Wind”.

Specific benchmark

performance (days)

Team authority & empowerment.

Source: Unpublished PMKN Study.

Org structure

Project risk

Relational norms

Frequency

Media

Content

Source: R. Müller. “Determinants for

external communications of IT project managers”,

IJPM, July 2003

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Some Implications For The Management of Projects.

1. Redefine governance• Above the waterline

• Free to take risks• Encourage “owners” to

find their own solutions• Below the waterline

• Take no risks• “Off limits”• Given

2. Redefine team process• Use “Open Space” principles• “Self-organize” around clear goals.• From “Process” “Outcome”

3. Redefine capabilities of leaders• Competence as conceptual level.• Strategic competence• Integrative competence.

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Is It Real?

There’s a breakthrough out there waiting to happen!!