The Human and Economic Consequences of Kenya's 2007 Post...
Transcript of The Human and Economic Consequences of Kenya's 2007 Post...
The Human and Economic Consequencesof Kenya's 2007 Post-Election Violence
Pascaline Dupas Jonathan RobinsonStanford UC Santa Cruz
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's political history
I 1895-1963: British Rule
I 1964: Presidential Representative Republic
I De facto one-party state until 1991
I Party KANU in power from 1963 to 2002
I Jomo Kenyatta (15 years)I Daniel Arap Moi (24 years)
I 2002: Mwai Kibaki (Rainbow coalition) elected president
I Election judged free and fair by most observers
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis
I Intense campaigning
I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)
I Election held on December 27, 2007
I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won
I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007
I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency
I 2 months of civil con�ict
I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed
I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis
I Intense campaigning
I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)
I Election held on December 27, 2007
I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won
I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007
I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency
I 2 months of civil con�ict
I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed
I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis
I Intense campaigning
I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)
I Election held on December 27, 2007
I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won
I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007
I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency
I 2 months of civil con�ict
I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed
I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis
I Intense campaigning
I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)
I Election held on December 27, 2007
I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won
I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007
I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency
I 2 months of civil con�ict
I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed
I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis
I Intense campaigning
I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)
I Election held on December 27, 2007
I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won
I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007
I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency
I 2 months of civil con�ict
I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed
I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis
I Intense campaigning
I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)
I Election held on December 27, 2007
I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won
I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007
I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency
I 2 months of civil con�ict
I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed
I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's 2007 Presidential Election Crisis
I Intense campaigning
I Incumbent Mwai KibakiI Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM)
I Election held on December 27, 2007
I Initial tallies suggest Odinga won
I After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 2007
I Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state ofemergency
I 2 months of civil con�ict
I ended in late February 2008 when a peace agreement was signed and apower-sharing government was formed
I 1,200 deaths + displacement of 500,000+ people
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007
Guinea, 2008
Zimbabwe, 2008
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007
Madagascar, 2009
Guinea, 2008
Zimbabwe, 2008
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007Cote d'Ivoire, 2010
Madagascar, 2009
Guinea, 2008
Zimbabwe, 2008
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007Cote d'Ivoire, 2010
Madagascar, 2009
Guinea, 2008
Zimbabwe, 2008
Nigeria, 2011
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007Cote d'Ivoire, 2010
Madagascar, 2009
Guinea, 2008
Mali, 2012
Zimbabwe, 2008
Nigeria, 2011
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007Cote d'Ivoire, 2010
Madagascar, 2009
Guinea, 2008
Mali, 2012
Zimbabwe, 2008
Senegal, 2012
Zambia, 2011
Ghana, 2008
Nigeria, 2011
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007Cote d'Ivoire, 2010
Madagascar, 2009
Guinea, 2008
Mali, 2012
Zimbabwe, 2008
Nigeria, 2011
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
MALICHAD
FASO
IRAN
TOGO
SOUTH
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIA
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
ARABIA
SAUDI
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
CAPE VERDE
THE GAMBIA
SENEGAL
NIGERIA
SAO TOMEAND PRINCIPE
GABON
TURKEYSPAIN
CAMEROON
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
MALAWI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
SOMALIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONEGHANA
BENIN
BURKINA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CÔTED'IVOIRE
A L G E R I A
S U D A N
L I B Y A
N I G E R
FRANCE
GERMANY POLAND
ITALY
GREECE
UKRAINE
U.K.IRE.RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
SYRIA
UZBEKISTANROM.
BELARUS
AZER.
LEB.
QATAR
KUWAITJORDAN
ISRAEL
CYPRUS
U.A.E
MAURIT
WesternSahara
ALB.
AUS.
TUNISIAMALTA
ZIMBABWE
COMOROS
BULG.
SLO.CRO.
SER.
MONT.
MACE.
HUNG.
CZ. REP.SLOV.
NETH.
BEL. LUX.
SWITZ.MOL.
BOS. &HER.AND.
ARM.
GEO.
IRAQ
BAHR.
NAMIBIA
YEMEN
OMAN
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
(FRANCE)
ANGOLA(Cabinda)
(YEMEN)
Sicily
LIBERIA
boundary
Socotra
SEYCHELLES
PORTUGAL
(PORTUGAL)
(PORTUGAL)
(SPAIN)
Admin.
(EQUA. GUI.)
AFG
Prov.Admin.Line
Sardinia
Corsica
REP. OF
OF THE CONGODEM. REP.
CONGOTHE
KAZAKHSTAN
(St. Helena)
St. Helena(U.K.)
Ascension
St. Helena
AFRICA
(St. Helena)
Strait of Gibraltar
O c e a n
A t l a n t i c
N o r t h
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea
Sea ofAzov
Danube
Nile
Nile
Red
Sea
Volga
Persian
S o u t h
A t l a n t i c
O c e a n
Gulf of Guinea
ArabianSea
I n d i a n
O c e a n
Gulf ofAden
LakeVictoria
NyasaLake
TanganyikaLake
BlueNile
Whi
teN
ile
Congo
BenueVolta
Niger
I n d i a n O c e a n
MozambiqueChannel
Zambezi
Orange
AralSea
CaspianSea
Gulf
Equator
40 20 0 20 40 60
Tropic of Cancer
40
20 2
0
2
Tropic of Capricorn
20
Jerusalem
Berlin Warsaw
Minsk
KyivPrague
AmsterdamLondon
Dublin
Brussels
ViennaBudapest
Bratislava
LjubljanaZagreb
Belgrade
Chisinau
Bucharest
Sofia
Skopje
Sarajevo
Athens
Valletta
TunisAlgiers
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Nicosia
Damascus
AmmanBaghdad
Riyadh
Bern
Rabat
Tashkent
AshgabatBaku
Doha Mus
Manama
Kuwait
SanaaAsmara
AbuDhabi
Djibouti
Mogadishu
Nairobi
AbabaAddis
N'Djamena
Bangui
Kinshasa
YaoundéMalabo
Lomé
São Tomé
Brazzaville
Libreville
Niamey
Abuja
NovoPorto-
Victoria
Moroni
St. Denis
PortLouisAntananarivo
MaputoPretoria
Maseru
Mbabane
Gaborone
Windhoek
Luanda
Lusaka
Harare
Dar esSalaam
Laayoune(El Aaiún)
Nouakchott
PraiaDakar
BanjulBamako
BissauOuagadougou
Conakry
Freetown
Accra
Island
Glorioso Islands
Mayotte
Bassasda India
(admin. by France,claimed by Comoros)
Juan de Nova Island
Tromelin Isla
OranConstantine
FèsCasablanca
Marrakech Banghazi Alexandria
Kano
OgbomosoIbadan
Lagos
Douala
Pointe-Noire
Kisangani
Mbuji-Mayi
Lubumbashi
Bukavu
Kitwe
Durban
Johannesburg
Port ElizabethCape Town
Beira
Mombasa
Hargeysa
Omdurman
Moundou
LubangoNamibe
Walvis Bay
Medina
MeccaJiddah
PortSudan
AswanAl Jawf
Tombouctou
Blantyre
Naples
Milan
Mashhad
Esfahan
Ankara
AdanaIzmir
Istanbul
.
Tehran
Odesa
Rostov
Lisbon
RomeBarcelona
Marseille
-
Tabriz
Abidjan
YamoussoukroMonrovia
Ponta
Funchal
Las Palmas
DelgadaYerevan
Aleppo
Shiraz
DodomaZanzibar
Al Jizah
AZORES
MADEIRA ISLANDS
CANARY ISLANDS
Nouadhibou
Mahajanga
Toamasina
'Abbas-
Juba
Zinder
Agadez
Annobón
Tbilisi
ReunionEuropa
Paris
Madrid
Khartoum
Kampala
Kigali
Bujumbura
Lilongwe
Kananga
TiranaPodgorica
Bandar
de NacalaCidade
-
-
-
-
-¸
-
S A H A R A
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Lac'Assal
(highest point in Africa, 5895 m)
(lowest point in Africa, -155 m)
N A
M I B
D E
S E
R T
D E S E R TK A L A H A R I
0
0
800 Kilometers
Scale 1:51,400,000
Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection
800 Miles
C O N G O
B A S I N G R
E A
T
R
I F
T
V
A L L
E Y
Kenya, 2007Cote d'Ivoire, 2010
Madagascar, 2009
Guinea, 2008
Mali, 2012
Zimbabwe, 2008
Nigeria, 2011
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Kenya's Post-Election Violence
Mombasa
EmbuNarok
Kisumu
Lodwar
Eldoret
KitaleBaringo
Kisii
Kakamega
KituiMachakos
GarissaSotik
Malindi
NakuruNyeri
Moyale
Mt. KenyaChuka
WESTERN
NAIROBI
NYANZA
COAST
RIFT VALLEYEASTERN
NORTHEASTERN
Mt. KenyaCENTRAL
Mombasa
Embu
NairobiNarok
Kisumu
Lodwar
Eldoret
KitaleBaringo
Kisii
Kakamega
KituiMachakos
GarissaSotik
Malindi
NakuruNyeri
Moyale
Chuka
KEY
Map 1: The main theatres of conflict
Theatres of violence
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Our Study Sample: Not Directly A�ected
Mombasa
EmbuNarok
Kisumu
Lodwar
Eldoret
KitaleBaringo
Kisii
Kakamega
KituiMachakos
GarissaSotik
Malindi
NakuruNyeri
Moyale
Mt. KenyaChuka
WESTERN
NAIROBI
NYANZA
COAST
RIFT VALLEYEASTERN
NORTHEASTERN
Mt. KenyaCENTRAL
Mombasa
Embu
NairobiNarok
Kisumu
Lodwar
Eldoret
KitaleBaringo
Kisii
Kakamega
KituiMachakos
GarissaSotik
Malindi
NakuruNyeri
Moyale
Chuka
KEY
Map 1: The main theatres of conflict
Theatres of violence
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Impacts on Economic Activity
100
105
110
115
120
125
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Milk (250ml) Bar of Soap 50 Ksh Phone CardCooking Oil Sugar (1kg) Coke (300ml)
Retail Prices (Normalized)
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Our Sample
I 3 distinct samples that we had been following for several years forvarious research projects:
1. Small-scale market and street vendors
I Very poor entrepreneursI Average daily expend ∼$1.5 per dayI Average daily investment ∼ $5 per day
2. Shopkeepers
I �Middle class�I Average daily expend ∼$6 per dayI Pro�ts closer to $10 per day
3. Women who supply transactional sex
I Average daily expenditures ∼$5 per dayI Typically get income from both transactional sex and other activity
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Our Sample
I 3 distinct samples that we had been following for several years forvarious research projects:
1. Small-scale market and street vendors
I Very poor entrepreneursI Average daily expend ∼$1.5 per dayI Average daily investment ∼ $5 per day
2. Shopkeepers
I �Middle class�I Average daily expend ∼$6 per dayI Pro�ts closer to $10 per day
3. Women who supply transactional sex
I Average daily expenditures ∼$5 per dayI Typically get income from both transactional sex and other activity
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Our Sample
I 3 distinct samples that we had been following for several years forvarious research projects:
1. Small-scale market and street vendors
I Very poor entrepreneursI Average daily expend ∼$1.5 per dayI Average daily investment ∼ $5 per day
2. Shopkeepers
I �Middle class�I Average daily expend ∼$6 per dayI Pro�ts closer to $10 per day
3. Women who supply transactional sex
I Average daily expenditures ∼$5 per dayI Typically get income from both transactional sex and other activity
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Our Sample
I 3 distinct samples that we had been following for several years forvarious research projects:
1. Small-scale market and street vendors
I Very poor entrepreneursI Average daily expend ∼$1.5 per dayI Average daily investment ∼ $5 per day
2. Shopkeepers
I �Middle class�I Average daily expend ∼$6 per dayI Pro�ts closer to $10 per day
3. Women who supply transactional sex
I Average daily expenditures ∼$5 per dayI Typically get income from both transactional sex and other activity
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Data
I Post-election Survey in late March 2008
I Detailed module on sexual behavior for sample of women who supplytransactional sex
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Impacts on Income
400
600
800
1000
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Total Income 95% CI
Market Vendors
050
0010
000
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Total Income 95% CI
Shopkeepers
050
010
0015
00
050
010
00
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
Income from Sex Work 95% CI
Other Income (right axis)
Sex WorkersDupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Impacts on Food Consumption
0.2
.4
.51
1.5
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Market Vendors
0.1
.2
.51
1.5
2
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Shopkeepers
0.2
.4.6
02
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
# Days HH had Meat for Dinner 95% CI
# Days HH Skipped Lunch (right axis) 95% CI
Sex Workers
0.2
.4
.51
1.5
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Market Vendors
0.1
.2
.51
1.5
2
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Shopkeepers
0.2
.4.6
02
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
# Days HH had Meat for Dinner 95% CI
# Days HH Skipped Lunch (right axis) 95% CI
Sex Workers
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Impacts on women who supply transactional sex?
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Impacts on women who supply transactional sex
400
600
800
1000
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Total Income 95% CI
Market Vendors
050
0010
000
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar
Total Income 95% CI
Shopkeepers
050
010
0015
00
050
010
00
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
Income from Sex Work 95% CI
Other Income (right axis)
Sex Workers
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Impacts on women who supply sex
350
400
450
600
700
800
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb
Market Vendors
900
950
1000
1050
2000
2500
3000
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb
Shopkeepers
400
500
600
700
1000
2000
3000
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb
Total Expenditures 95% CI
Food Expenditures (right axis)
Sex Workers
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Risk-taking among women who supply sex
0.2
.4.6
.81
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
Average 95% CI
Times Unprotected Vaginal Sex
.4.6
.81
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
Average 95% CI
# Unprotected Vaginal / # Clients
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Risk-taking among women who supply sex
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
Average 95% CI
Times Unprotected Anal Sex
-.05
0.0
5.1
.15
.2
nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar
Average 95% CI
# Unprotected Anal / # Clients
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Implications for HIV/AIDS
I Mortality rate ∼13% among our sample of sex workers, suggestinghigh prevalence of HIV
I Possibly hightened transmission of HIV to clientsI Possibly hightened risk for women not yet infected
I We only see the tip of the iceberg...
I Crisis could have led to entry into transactional sex, both during andafter violence
I Possibly violence against women in violence areas
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Implications for HIV/AIDS
I Mortality rate ∼13% among our sample of sex workers, suggestinghigh prevalence of HIV
I Possibly hightened transmission of HIV to clientsI Possibly hightened risk for women not yet infected
I We only see the tip of the iceberg...
I Crisis could have led to entry into transactional sex, both during andafter violence
I Possibly violence against women in violence areas
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Conclusion
I First order consequences of crisis: ∼1,200 deaths and displacement of500,000 or more people
I Even in areas not directly a�ected by ethnic clashes / violence, thepost-election crisis had large e�ects:
I on prices, income and food consumptionI �hidden� channel by which political unrest a�ects health: increase in
risky behavior in transactional sex market
I How do we make sure this does not happen again in next election(March 2013)?
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Conclusion
I First order consequences of crisis: ∼1,200 deaths and displacement of500,000 or more people
I Even in areas not directly a�ected by ethnic clashes / violence, thepost-election crisis had large e�ects:
I on prices, income and food consumptionI �hidden� channel by which political unrest a�ects health: increase in
risky behavior in transactional sex market
I How do we make sure this does not happen again in next election(March 2013)?
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012
Conclusion
I First order consequences of crisis: ∼1,200 deaths and displacement of500,000 or more people
I Even in areas not directly a�ected by ethnic clashes / violence, thepost-election crisis had large e�ects:
I on prices, income and food consumptionI �hidden� channel by which political unrest a�ects health: increase in
risky behavior in transactional sex market
I How do we make sure this does not happen again in next election(March 2013)?
Dupas and Robinson (2012) Kenya's Election Crisis CEGA � April 27, 2012