The Housing Conundrum

@benatipsosmori

The Housing Conundrum Public opinion

& what it means

4th November, 2014

#JLL

Our latest results for JLL

Fieldwork conducted

10-13 October 2014

1,009 GB adults 16-75

conducted online

weighted to national profile

Irrational exuberance over the economy? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

De

c-9

7M

ar-

98

Jun-9

8S

ep-9

8D

ec-9

8M

ar-

99

Jun-9

9S

ep-9

9D

ec-9

9M

ar-

00

Jun-0

0S

ep-0

0D

ec-0

0M

ar-

01

Jun-0

1S

ep-0

1D

ec-0

1M

ar-

02

Jun-0

2S

ep-0

2D

ec-0

2M

ar-

03

Jun-0

3S

ep-0

3D

ec-0

3M

ar-

04

Jun-0

4S

ep-0

4D

ec-0

4M

ar-

05

Jun-0

5S

ep-0

5D

ec-0

5M

ar-

06

Jun-0

6S

ep-0

6D

ec-0

6M

ar-

07

Jun-0

7S

ep-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun-0

8S

ep-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun-0

9S

ep-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun-1

0S

ep-1

0D

ec-1

0M

ar-

11

Jun-1

1S

ep-1

1D

ec-1

1M

ar-

12

Jun-1

2S

ep-1

2D

ec-1

2M

ar-

13

Jun-1

3S

ep-1

3D

ec-1

3M

ar-

14

Jun-1

4S

ep-1

4

+4

-46

-56 -48

+23

-64

+12

+34

Q. Do you think that the long-term economic condition of the economy will improve, stay the same or get worse?

House price sentiment mirrors economy

+9 -2

+7

+19 +15 +15 +20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66 +62

-28 -32

-48

-14

-32

-9 -6

-19

0

+23

+15

+23 +29

+24

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

HPO

EOI

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

(EOI)

Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI

(measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork)

Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

And as market ‘cools’, housing’s salience dips?

Year

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% mentioning housing asamong/the most importantissue(s) facing GB

UK average house price

Base: c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month Sources: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Halifax House Price Index (All(Mon)NSA)

£67,775

(Mar‘97)

£187,018

(Sep’14)

6% (Mar’97)

10%

(Oct’14)

£200,578

(Jul‘07)

16%

(Jul’07)

% mentioning £ UK average house price

Public say prices are too high Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014

Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree….

“House prices are currently too high”

45

% strongly

agree

% tend

to agree

% tend to agree (4%)

% strongly disagree (1%)

33

14

Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL

% neither

agree/disagree

Seen as most important housing issue Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014

Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems facing the housing market in Britain

today?


House

prices are

too high

47%

Size of

deposits

31%

Lack of

social housing

30%

Not enough new

homes being built

20%

Rents

too high

28%

Too many people from

abroad buying homes

21%

Housing benefit

changes

14%

Banks not giving

out mortgages

15%

Stamp duty is too high

14%

Big homes

occupied

by 1 or 2 people

5%

Too many

second homes

13%

Not enough schemes for

renters to get on ladder

12%

Only… Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014

8% identify prices and supply as top issues


Better link prices & supply in London?

47

39

37

14

7

5

5

3

2

1

1

Over-population/ immigration

Planning/ ability to build/ land availability

Economic backdrop/ lack of financing

Local government policy (e.g. housing allocation)

Renting - poor landlords

Poor housing choice

Poor housing quality

%

• Source: Ipsos MORI/London Councils

Base: Londoners agree there is a housing crisis in London (829). 18 - 29 Oct 2013

Government policy incl. welfare reform & legacy of Right to Buy

Affordability of housing/house prices

Buy to let/people buying properties and not living in them

17

Q. And what, if anything, do you think are the main causes of the current housing crisis in London? (spontaneous)

Lack of building/housing supply/ investment

“The nearest the British have to a religion” (#2)

Q. If you had a free choice, would you choose to rent accommodation, or would you choose to buy? % Buy

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pre war Baby boomers Gen X Gen Y Overall

Aspiration is strong

Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSAS (NatCen)

19

Kids recognise problem

Q. Do you think it will be easier or harder for you to buy your own house than it was for your parents?

40%

16%

29%

16%

Harder for me

Easier for me

About the

same

Don’t know /

not stated

Base: 2,734 11-16 year olds

Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (2014)

34%

23%

22%

16%

4%

Q To what extent do you agree or disagree… ‘Rising house prices are a good thing for Britain’?

Base: 1,970 British adults 13-23 September 2013

% agree % neither/nor

% disagree

Source: Ipsos MORI/Inside Housing

56% own/occ’ 58% renters

Consensus on challenge of rising prices

Q To what extent do you agree or disagree… ‘Rising house prices are a good thing for me personally’?

Base: 1,970 British adults 13-23 September 2013

% agree

% neither/nor % disagree

Source: Ipsos MORI/Inside Housing

24%

18%

28%

19%

10%

41% own/occ’ 9% renters

…but more divisive in personal terms

And JLL survey

found disquiet abut lending Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014

Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree….“it has been made too

difficult for people to get mortgages these days”


28%

38%

17%

9% 3 5

Strongly agree

Tend to agree

Neither agree nordisagree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

Don't know

Agree 66%

Disagree 11%

Mortgage holders

Agree 70%

Disagree 13%

Overall

9% 22%

48% 60%

Up to £50 Up to £100 Up to £200 Up to £300

Some low tipping points – interest rates Base: 651 mortgage-holders,16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014


Q. What is the smallest amount your monthly mortgage repayments would have to increase for them to become

unaffordable? (Mortgage holders)

Increase per month

% who would find this

increase unaffordable

The supply conundrum

The problem/solution conundrum Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014

Top 4 of 7

Building more

homes which are

affordable

35%

Reducing

the no. of

empty

homes

32%

Lack of

social housing

30%

61% agree we are not

building enough

homes nationally

Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate

the extent to which you agree…

“We are not building enough homes to keep up

with what is needed”

Q. Which, 1 or 2, if any, do you think should be the

highest priority for the

Government to deal with?


Making it

easier for

FTBs…

28%

Improving

run down

estates

27%

Solution more contentious than problem

71% 84%

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree…

Con Lab

… there is a housing crisis in Britain?

… more new homes need to be built in the local area? 44% 60%

80%

Own/occ’ Renters

47% 62%

% agree

79%

Base: 1,015 British adults 12-14 January 2013 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard

The central/local conundrum Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014

61% agree “we are not

building enough

homes nationally” 24% of these do not agree

“we are not building

enough homes locally” Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL

Includes ‘Neither/nor’ and ‘Don’t know’

The quantity/quality conundrum

[Respondents were given the estimated number of new homes London needs (32,000 new homes a year*)]

• Base: 500 online interviews with adult (16+) residents in Greater London, 24-27 May 2013

• Source: Ipsos MORI for Berkeley Group

Build fewer homes with higher

design standard

38%

Build more homes with lower

design standards

28%

Q. “Thinking now about getting the balance right between the quality and the amount of new housing, which,

if either, of the two options do you think would be best for London?”

New builds have an image problem?

Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax

More

expensive (47% think 6%+)

Smaller

Source: Shelter

The Government/market conundrum Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,

10-13 October 2014

Base: All non-owning/mortgaged 18-29 year olds who think

getting on the property ladder is difficult (1,748), GB, 20-27

March 2013

Source: ComRes/BBC

60% disagree


Q. Who or what do you think is most responsible for

young people finding it difficult to get onto the

property ladder?

35%

Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate

the extent to which you agree…

“There isn’t much that British governments can do

to encourage the building of new homes”

Size of deposits

33% Property prices

11% The Government

11% The banks

The lead/follow conundrum Base: 2,011 GB adults 16-75 (online),

30 May-4 June 2014

Source: Ipsos MORI for CIH

Strongly agree

27% 16% 13%

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

28% 40%

12%

30%

Neither agree nor disagree

30%

58%

Q. To what extent would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area?

Q. To what extent would do you support or oppose the building of new homes…

Opinion very conditional and local

22% 35%

..in the district …in the local area …if meant young

people/families

could stay

10%

…if meant building on

‘greenfield’ i.e.

undeveloped land

70%

Base: 902 residents, Dec 2011-Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI for Canterbury City Council

% opposition

The challenge for managers and leaders–

TRY SOMETHING NEW

@benatipsosmori

The Housing Conundrum

Real Estate

Transcript of The Housing Conundrum