The Greater Antelope Valley Lancaster Palmdale California City Ridgecrest Tehachapi Mojave Rosamond...
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Transcript of The Greater Antelope Valley Lancaster Palmdale California City Ridgecrest Tehachapi Mojave Rosamond...
The Greater Antelope Valley
LancasterPalmdale
California CityRidgecrestTehachapi
MojaveRosamond
Los Angeles Co.East Kern Co.
Mission Statement
Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA)
Antelope Valley Economic Research & Education Foundation (AVEREF)
mission is to grow, retain, and attract businesses in the Antelope Valley
Antelope Valley By Zip Code
USA Equals 1/5 of World Economy
USA and China Comparison
• United States Population 311 Million• China’s Population 1.5 Billion
• United States 14.7 T GDP• China 5.7 T GDP
USA and China Comparison
• United States Population 311 Million• China’s Population 1.5 Billion
• United States 14.7 T GDP• China 5.7 T GDP
• China’s Gross Domestic Product need to grow $75 Trillion
• National Job Loss Between 7-8 Million
• Normal Economy Create 200K jobs/mo
• LA County Lost 1.5M Jobs
• LA County Gained 100,000• Source: LAEDC
Jobs ??????
Corporations Holding Large Sums of Cash…• 2004/2005First came to GAVEA’s attention• Research: Follow the Smart Money• Microsoft $250B• Hewlett $100B• Results Jobs not being created• 2011 Corporation still holding cash• Estimate Estimated to be: $2T
Why???
California Fundamentals
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
% Jobless
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Annual % Growth
Personal Income Growth --->
Unemployment Rate <---
Long-Term Population Projections May Change
2010 2015 2020 2030Lancaster 145075 181493 202407 242523Palmdale 151343 220112 257546 329322Unincorp. 128673 161040 223243Cal City Region 23823 32509 39641Ridgecrest Region 36647 39442 41737Rosamond Region 29399 31805 40245Tehachapi Region 38678 47691 57632Total 486141 658835 772440 974343GAVEA 486141 536505 593087 721932
Source: DOF, SCAG and Kern COG
Cost of Doing Business
2006 2010Lancaster Moderate Cost Low CostPalmdale Moderate Cost Average CostIndio High Cost Average CostTulare High Cost High CostRiverside High Cost High CostSan Bernardino Very High Cost Very High CostLos Angeles Very High Cost Very High CostChandler, AZ Very High Cost Very High CostPhoenix, AZ Very High Cost Very High Cost
Source: Kosmont Cost of Doing Business
Property Tax Comparison 2006 2010Lancaster 1.1% 1.1%Palmdale 1.2% 1.3%San Bernardino 1.1% 1.3%Portland, OR 2.1% 2.1%Tucson, AZ 2.3% 2.3%Syracuse, NY 3.8% 2.5%Chandler, AZ 2.9% 2.6%Bullhead City, AZ 1.2% 2.7%Arlington, TX 3.0% 3.0%
Source: Kosmont Cost of Doing Business
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
2008
2009
Crime Index by National Average
N. Las VegasLancaster
Palmdale
Glendale, AZReno
Source: FBI, GAVEA
Crime Index
N. Las VegasLancaster
Palmdale
Glendale, AZReno
POPULATION CHANGES = CHANGE IN FUTURE WORKFORCE
Hispanic (pop) 2000 2010
% of Change Annual
Lancaster 28,644 42,955 49.96% 5%Palmdale 43,991 67,001 52.31% 5%
White (pop) 2000 2010Lancaster 74,573 83,002 11.30% 1.1%Palmdale 63,905 67,001 4.84% 0.5%
Source: Claritas, GAVEA
The ethnic makeup of the population is changing quickly. About 58% of elementary students are Hispanic/Latino, compared to 33% of the current total population.
More than 20,000 students throughout AV are designated as English Language Learners.
17,000 Student: enrolled in the advanced learning
Hispanic/Latino students less likely to take college preparatory classes.88% of Hispanic Parents agree that a college education is important as compared to 74%USA
AV Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2001 to 2010 2nd Qtr.
-690-589
-3946122165188
435438
6471,112
1,2922,1832,3522,404
3,3633,422
3,6754,1754,188
-1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500
Federal GovernmentConstruction
Agriculture & MiningInformation
Arts &EntertainmentManagement & Admin. Support
Real EstateUtilities
Wholesale TradeEducational Services
Professional & ScientificTransportation & Warehousing
Finance & InsuranceRetail Trade
State GovernmentHealth Care & Social Assistance
Accomdations & Food S.Other ServicesManufacturing
Local Government
Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA
AV Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2nd Qtr.
Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA
Antelope ValleyAverage Annual Employment
Prelim # Number of Jobs Gained
% of jobs Gained
2008/ 2008/
2008 2010 2010 2010Total AV Employment - LA County 76,899 72,340 -4,559 -5.93%Total AV Employment Kern County 23,572 21,945 -1,627 -6.90%
Total Employment - AV 100,471
94,285 -6,186 -6.16%
Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA
Antelope Valley Annual Employment 2009 to 2010 Comparison
Prelim # Number of Jobs Gained
% of jobs Gained
2009/ 2009/
2009 2010 2010 2010Total AV Employment - LA County 73,201 72,340 -861 -1.18%Total AV Employment Kern County 22,597 21,945 -652 -2.89%
Total Employment - AV
95,798
94,285 -1533 -1.58%
Source: EDD, GAVEA
Antelope ValleyAverage Annual Employment
Prelim # Number of Jobs Gained
% of jobs Gained
2007/ 2007/
2007 2010 2010 2010Total AV Employment - LA County 73,358 72,340 -1,018 -1.39%Total AV Employment Kern County 23,086 21,945 -1,141 -4.94%
Total Employment - AV 96,444
94,285 -2159 -2.23%
Source: EDD, GAVEA
Unemployment Rate
Workforce changes -?
78,000,000
48,000,000
Source: DOL
AV (LA) Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2nd Qtr.
Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA
AV (Kern) Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2nd Qtr.
Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA
NEW BUSINESS LOAN
2009 Reported Business Loans Under $1 Million in the Antelope Valley
2007 2008 2009 % Change
$100,000 or Less
Number of Loans 16,714 11,973 4,255 -64.5%
Amount (in millions) $157 $111 $51 -54.1%
Greater than $100,000 but less than $250,000
Number of Loans 119 84 61 -27.4%
Amount (in millions) $21 $14 $10 -30.0%
Greater than $250,000 but less than $1Million
Number of Loans 97 63 48 -23.8%
Amount (in millions) $48 $33 $25 -25.0%
Total
Number of loans 16,930 12,120 4,364 -64.0%
Amount of Loans (in millions) $226 $159 $86 -45.8%
Loans to Firms with Revenues less than $1 Million
Number of loans 6,909 3,777 1,450 -61.6%
Amount (in millions) $112 $61 $38 -37.6%
Source: FDIC, SFVRC
GAVEA
www.WindSolarCalifornia.Com
R
EE
N
Renewable Energy
• 8,000 MW in permitting and planning process
• Enough capacity to generate power for 1.6 – 2.4M housing units.
• There are 1,720,000 single detached housing units in LA County.
• www.windsolarcalifornia.com
71,000 workers commute to LA from Antelope Valley. The average daily one-way commute is 89 minutes for Palmdale and 67 minutes for Lancaster and Rosamond
Electric Cars
1994-1995 Average Miles per Vehicle
approximate number of
register vehicles in 2006 USA
approximate number of miles traveled in 2006
approximate distance to the sun and back
number of trips to the sun and
back
14,300 251,000,000 3,589,300,000,000 186,000,000 19,297
California Mileage
Time period Number of miles Gallon of gas Amount spent
Number of 9000 tanker
trucks
Number of miles of trucks end to end
(5280 feet per mile)
Number of times from LA to New York (2780.82
Miles)
July 08 15,500,000,000 620,000,000 $2,452,100,000 68,888.88 913.29 0.33
8/07 - 7/08 178,560,000,000 7,142,400,000 $20,248,704,000 793,600.00 10521.21 3 3/4
8/06 - 7/07 182,900,000,000 7,316,000,000 $17,170,652,000 812,888.88 10776.94 3 9/10
2.4% less year over year.
17.9% more year over year
Film, Farming Aerospace
Industrial, Hotels
Antelope Valley Retail Sales
Source: Cities of Lancaster, Palmdale, Cal City, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest
Lancaster Retail Sales
Comparison of the High to 2009% of
Growth/Loss Growth/Loss
Calendar Year High 2009 High/Low High/Low in $
Apparel $35,280,000 $31,422,000 -10.94% -$3,858,000
General Merchandise $273,169,000 $267,706,000 -2.00% -$5,463,000
Food Stores $74,052,000 $63,420,000 -14.36% -$10,632,000
Eating & Drinking $152,959,000 $140,972,000 -7.84% -$11,987,000
Furniture/Appliances
Building Materials $197,160,000 $102,192,000 -48.17% -$94,968,000
Auto Dealers $382,772,000 $155,943,000 -59.26% -$226,829,000
Service Stations $149,101,000 $106,128,000 -28.82% -$42,973,000
Other Retail $193,053,000 $99,431,000 -48.50% -$93,622,000
Other Outlets $616,517,000 $324,355,000 -47.39% -$292,162,000
Total -$782,494.000
% of
Growth/loss Growth/loss
Calendar year High 2009 High/2009 High/Low in $
Apparel $103,355,000 $103,355,000 0.00% $0
General Merchandise $334,336,100 $268,404,800 -19.72% -$65,931,300
Food Stores $92,202,000 $67,464,900 -26.83% -$24,737,100
Eating & Drinking $167,443,500 $162,456,100 -2.98% -$4,987,400
Furniture/Appliances $141,156,900 $92,656,200 -34.36% -$48,500,700
Building Materials $141,977,300 $95,501,900 -32.73% -$46,475,400
Auto Dealers $289,834,800 $149,412,400 -48.45% -$140,422,400
Service Stations $171,069,800 $133,267,700 -22.10% -$37,802,100
Other Retail $142,415,200 $105,137,800 -26.18% -$37,277,400
Other Outlets $222,916,200 $87,970,700 -60.54% -$134,945,500Total -$541,079,300
Palmdale Retail Sales
Comparison of High to 2009
TOTAL RETAIL SALES (LOSS)
LANCASTER ($782,494,000)
PALMDALE ($541,071,400)
TOTAL LOSS ($1,323,565,000)
Source: City of Lancaster, Palmdale
Loss of Retail Sales Comparison (2009 as to Historical Year High)
REPRESENTS HIGH YEAR AS TO 2009 YEAR % ofSALES
COMPARISON
GrowthLoss
AS TO HISTORICAL
Calendar Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 TO 2009 YEAR
Lancaster $ 2,049,000,000 $ 1,291,569,000 -37% 2001
Palmdale $ 1,726,326,200 $ 1,265,627,500 -27% 2003
Ridgecrest $ 285,824,000 $ 285,120,400 0% 2006
Tehachapi $ 170,995,000 $ 139,840,000 -18% 2005
California City $ 44,600,000 $ 29,400,000 -34% 2005
Total $ 4,247,668,200 $ 3,011,556,900 -29% 2003
California Taxable Retail Sales
OCTOBER 29, 1969
• WHAT HAPPENED ON OCTOBER 29, 1969 ??
OCTOBER 29,1969
• FIRST MESSAGE SENT TO CYBERSPACE BY CLUNKY COMPUTER AT UCLA
• AT THE INTERNET 35TH BIRTHDAY PARTY (2004), KLEINROCK SAID,
• “THE INTERNET IS ESSENTIALLY IN ITS STONE AGE.”
THE INTERNET – A Game Changer
• MASS CUSTOMIZING OF THE ENVIRONMENT. “IF YOU WALK INTO A ROOM THE ROOM WILL KNOW IT.” HE CALLED IT INVISIBLE AND NOMADIC COMPUTING.
• ONE DAY ALL HUMANS ON EARTH WILL BE CONNECTED. WE ARE ABOUT 3-4% THERE. CEO OF INTEL
THE INTERNET
• CEO OF BROADCAM, UCLA PROFESSOR AND PHILANTHROPIST, SAMUELI SAID,
“MAYBE WE WILL GET THERE IN 50 YEARS TO
MAKE THE INTERNET INDISPUTABLY UBIQUITOUS AND SECURE”
Dare to Compare
This 982sf 3bed 2bath home in Santa Clarita built in 1962 sold on 08/26/10 for $275,000
This 3,448sf 4Bed 3bath home in West Lancaster built in 2005 sold on 08/19/10 for $235,000
Income VS. Housing Affordability
Source: Claritas, GAVEA, Dataquick
2010 Avg. Household
Income
2007Affordability
2010 Affordability
California City $65,755 70 91Phoenix $67,641 70 87Palmdale $72,369 48 83Lancaster $65,375 47 82Greater Tehachapi $72,121 59 79Rosamond $64,697 43 76Santa Clarita $107,510 51 71Reno $65,293 53 65Tucson $49,505 49 64Las Vegas $72,843 43 64Los Angeles $72,785 21 46
Housing – Number of Listings
Source: GAVAR, GAVEA
Jan-
04 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
vJa
n-05 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
vJa
n-06 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
vJa
n-07 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
vJa
n-08 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
vJa
n-09 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
vJa
n-10 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
vJa
n-11 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptNo
v
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
ACTIVE LISTINGS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Jan 540 1196 1851 3659 4783 3455 1046 1698Feb 571 1133 2269 3717 4876 3080 1145 1827Mar 456 1002 2371 3962 4575 2676 1191 1814Apr 444 920 2561 4333 4572 2007 1181 1743May 509 846 2831 4722 4511 1686 1075 Jun 705 873 3356 5081 4550 1386 1225 Jul 934 875 3772 5190 4173 1264 1309 Aug 1147 1065 4022 5303 4032 1181 1450 Sept 1381 1239 4296 4864 3984 1148 1595 Oct 1500 1513 4437 4950 3953 1105 1692 Nov 1548 1671 4353 5172 3884 1086 1792 Dec 1500 1710 4124 5084 3740 1023 1764 Total Listings 11235 14043 40243 56037 51633 21097 16465 7082
Home Sales2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
AVG. # of salesSales 6568 3067 5784 8836 6322% Change -53% 89% 53% -28%
Source: GAVAR, GAVEA
Jan-
06 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptN
ovJa
n-07 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptN
ovJa
n-08 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptN
ovJa
n-09 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptN
ovJa
n-10 Mar
May Ju
lSe
ptN
ovJa
n-11 Mar
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
Housing Units Sold in the AV
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
UnitsSold
8,050 9,327 10,074 10,679 7,665 3,475 5,971 9,993 7,602
% Change
16% 8% 9% -28% -55% 72% 67% -24%
Source: First American Title
Average HousingSales Price in the AV
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010AVG.Sales Price $140,807 $169,124 $224,588 $284,572 $314,435 $295,542 $211,461 $142,226 141,433
% Change 20% 34% 26% 10% -6 % -28% -33% 0.6%
Source: First American Title
Annual Notice of Default
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010# of NOD 1484 1285 880 1379 2394 6381 10162 10226 5791% Change -13% -32% 57% 74% 167% 59% 0.6% -43%
Source: Data Quick
Notice of Default by Q
Source: Data Quick
Yearly Home Foreclosure Sales94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
# of F.S.
2017 2204 2964 3725 3096 1892 1363 734 573 278 112 55 274 2383 7327 5592 4166
% Change
9% 34% 20%-
17%-
39%-
28%-
54%-
22%-
51%-
60%-
51% 398% 770% 207% -24% -26%
From high 3725To low 55 (-98.5%)Up to high7327(13,221.8%)
Avg. 2,280/year
Sources: Data Quick
HOME FORECLOSURE SALESBY Q
Source: Data Quick
Lancaster Single Family Building Permits
Year Single Family Permits
Multi- Family Permits
Total
2000 279 132 411
2001 577 194 771
2002 437 0 437
2003 972 2 974
2004 1740 369 2109
2005 2799 78 2877
2006 1663 106 1769
2007 806 2 808
2008 253 144 397
2009 187 80 267
2010 277 0 277
Source: Construction Industry Board
Palmdale Single Family Building Permits
Year Single Family Permits
Multi- Family Permits
Total
1999 495 344 839
2000 608 0 608
2001 812 0 812
2002 978 0 978
2003 946 0 946
2004 1371 0 1371
2005 1579 0 1579
2006 1213 91 1304
2007 839 236 1075
2008 379 158 537
2009 261 0 261
2010 149 0 149
WILD CARDS
• TERRORIST ATTACK• POLITICAL UNREST IN MAJOR OIL
PRODUCING COUNTRIES• GOVERNMENT FINANCES –LOCAL &
NATIONAL• BABY-BOOMERS LEAVING THE JOB MARKET• LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DOLLAR
Mel LaynePresident
(661) 945-27411028 W. Ave L-12 Suite 101
Lancaster, CA 93534www.aveconomy.org