The Great Recession, A Bird’s The Great Recession, A Bird’s Eye View Eye View

Alaska Credit Union LeagueAlaska Credit Union League

May 4, 2010May 4, 2010

Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, EconomistResearch Section, Neal Fried, Economist

Recession Nation: 49 States at Recession Nation: 49 States at RiskRiskBy SCOTT MAYEROWITZ

ABC NEWS Business UnitNov. 3, 2008

1959 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20090

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

number of jobs

the bust

oil revenue boom

Alaska's 21 Years Of Uninterrupted Growth Is Now Over

21 years of growth

personal income fell for first time in 22 years

How Job Losses Unfolded In 2009

3,607

1,241483 386

-5,689

-4,313-3,466 -3,590

-3,169

-1,471-880

-1,562

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Alaska OTY Job Changes

Job Losses Vary From State to State We’re Doing Pretty Well

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

-6.1%

-0.3%

-4.6%

-7.0% -7.0%-6.7% -6.9%

U.S. Alaska Wash. Oregon Idaho Hawaii California

percent jobs lost thus far in this recession

-8.4 million -1,000 -136,300 -120,900 -46,400 -41,800 -1,043,000

Your Industry In This State Is Doing Remarkably Well (Credit Intermediation)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, AK DOWL, R&A.

-6.1%

-8.4%

-0.3%

0.0%

U.S.-Total U.S. Credit People AK-Total AK Credit People

percent jobs lost thus far in this recession

Flat

Tale of Two Economies--We Are Very Different-Alaska’s And The Nation’s Gross

State/National Product

Alaska U.S. 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Remainder Oil Government Transport. Manufacturing

Source:BEA

So, What Are Some Of The Economic Forces In Play In 2010

Negative Neutral Positive

Oil Production Federal $$$$$$$ Military

Visitors Air Cargo Lower interest rates

Infected by rest of nation Good fiscal position

A little removed from rest of nation

=+ +

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12State of Alaska unrestricted revenues ($billions)

This Does Not Hurt Alaska

A Second Year of Losses Forecast For 2010?

2.3%

1%

2.2%

1.9% 2%

1.4%1.6%

1.9%

1.6%

1%

1.4%

-0.3% -0.4%

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10*

percent employment change from previous year

Where Jobs Are Forecast To Come From And Disappear In 2010

-1,400

-400

-300

-300

-300

-400

-800

500

900

Total

Oil

Professional & Bus. Svcs.

Construction

Transportation

Retail

Leisure & Hospitality

Health Care

Government

Job gains and losses in Alaska in 2010

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

This Year There Are Lots of Forecasts Out There For Alaska

-0.2%

-0.6%

-1.9%

-0.6%

Department of Labor (best) Northern Economics Moody's Wells Fargo

2009 Employment Growth-Alaska

-700 jobs

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, Northern Economics, Wells Fargo, Moody’s.

-3,400 jobs

-6,200 jobs

-1,900 jobs

This Year There Are Lots of Forecasts Out There For Alaska-2010

-0.4%

0.9%

-1.5%

Department of Labor (best) Moody's Reaume

Employment

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, Northern Economics, Wells Fargo, Moody’s.

Ranking State

1 Louisiana

2 Hawaii

3 Florida

4 Tennessee

5 Arizona

6 Mississippi

7 Montana

8 South Carolina

9 Alabama

10 Maine

11 Alaska

30 Oregon

36 Washington

Hey, we are a pretty happy state

Source: Science Magazine

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 41994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8number of jobs needed to afford a single family home-statewide

One Silver Lining--Housing Has Become More Affordable

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

1.49

1.67

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 41994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

Nominal Wages Real Wages

Alaska’s Average Monthly Wages-Gone Nowhere

High Unemployment Has Become the Norm

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

4.4%

6.0%

4.4%5.0%

2.8% 2.8%

10.0%9.2% 9.6%

12.7%

9.1%8.0%

U.S. Alaska Washington Oregon Idaho Hawaii

unemployment rate

Pre-Recession Recession High

Highest since 1991

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%Seasonally Adjusted

Alaska

U.S.

Alaska’s And The Nation’s Unemployment Rates Move In Lockstep-But...

No. 1No. 1: Anchorage: Anchorage, Alaska, AlaskaCompanies planning to hire in Companies planning to hire in next quarter:next quarter: 28% 28%Best job prospects:Best job prospects: Construction, Construction, durable goods manufacturing, durable goods manufacturing, nondurable goods manufacturing, nondurable goods manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, wholesale and retail trade, information, financial activities, information, financial activities, professional and business services, professional and business services, education and health services, leisure education and health services, leisure and hospitality, other services, and hospitality, other services, governmentgovernmentPopulation:Population: 279,243 279,243Average home price in January:Average home price in January: $313,796$313,796Unemployment rate:Unemployment rate: 8.1% 8.1%

The 10 best places to The 10 best places to start overstart over

Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:51:30 Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:51:30 AMAM

Americans tame their wanderlustAmericans tame their wanderlustCensus Bureau statistics show that fewer Census Bureau statistics show that fewer Americans are uprooting. And when they do move, Americans are uprooting. And when they do move, they're favoring D.C., they're favoring D.C., AlaskaAlaska and Texas. and Texas.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writerBy Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writerLast Updated: September 25, 2009: 6:21 AM ETLast Updated: September 25, 2009: 6:21 AM ET

So, where are they moving?So, where are they moving?So, if people aren't heading for the So, if people aren't heading for the good life in California and Florida, good life in California and Florida, where are they going?where are they going?D.C., Alaska and Wyoming. D.C., Alaska and Wyoming. (Seriously.)(Seriously.)The nation's capital saw 7.6% of its The nation's capital saw 7.6% of its residents arrive in 2008; Alaska residents arrive in 2008; Alaska attracted 6% more people to the Last attracted 6% more people to the Last Frontier (up a full percent from 2007); Frontier (up a full percent from 2007); and 5.2% more people wanted to be and 5.2% more people wanted to be Wyoming cowboys.Wyoming cowboys.

The Best And Worst Cities For Jobs This The Best And Worst Cities For Jobs This SpringSpringYou may do best finding work in Alaska or Vermont this season.

Helen CosterHelen Coster, 03.10.10, 05:53 PM EST , 03.10.10, 05:53 PM EST

Cities with colleges, military bases Cities with colleges, military bases and a wide range of industries have and a wide range of industries have the strongest outlook for hiring in the the strongest outlook for hiring in the second quarter of 2010, according to second quarter of 2010, according to a recent survey from the employment a recent survey from the employment services firm services firm ManpowerManpower. . Anchorage, Anchorage, AlaskaAlaska, and Burlington, Vt., tie for the , and Burlington, Vt., tie for the top spot, with a net of 22% of top spot, with a net of 22% of surveyed employers there expecting surveyed employers there expecting to hire between April and June. The to hire between April and June. The Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood areas of Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood areas of Texas, home to the massive Fort Texas, home to the massive Fort Hood army base, comes in a close Hood army base, comes in a close second, with a net of 21% of second, with a net of 21% of surveyed employers looking to hiresurveyed employers looking to hire

Population Change Ingredients

births 11,454

minus deaths -3,378

total natural increase 8,076

plus net migration 2,261

total population gain 10,337

More People Moved to Alaska in 2009 Than Left-That is No Small Thing

=

of

Alaska’s population in 2009 of 692,314

Plus 2008’s population of 681,977

=

you get

Hey Look At This-Hmmm

21.1 20.619.6

18.818.1

16.7 16.3 16.4 16.1 16.4 15.9 15.4 15.5 15.9 15.5 15.7 16.2 15.816.7

90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 '00-'01 '01-'02 '02-'03 '03-'04 '04-'05 '05-'06 '06-'07 '07-'08 '08-'09

Number of births in Anchorage per 1,000 residentsU.S. 13.9 in

2008-09

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, U.S. Census Bureau

Hey Look At This-Hmmm

32.5

24.522.7 21.9

18.116.7 16.3 16.4 16.1 16.4 15.9 15.4 15.5 15.9

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Number of births in Alaska, per 1,000 residentsU.S. 13.9 in

2008-09

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, U.S. Census Bureau

Areas Whose Population Grew Faster Than Average

30%

15%

12%

10%

9%

9%

MatSu Borough

Delta Area

Fairbanks

ANCHORAGE

Alaska

U.S.

2000-2009

Areas That Have Lost Significant Population

-30%

-29%

-26%

-20%

-19%

-18%

Bristol Bay Borough

Yakutat, City

Hoonah-Angoon

Aleutians West

Wrangell, City

Lake & Peninsula Bor.

2000-2009

Alaska

95+

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Age

01234567 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Male FemaleThousands

This Is What We Look Like Anchorage! What’s This Mean In The Future?

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Age

Male Female

Wade Hampton Census Area-Very Young

95+908580757065605550454035302520151050

Age

Male Female

Kenai Peninsula Borough’s Population-Monroe Like?

95908580757065605550454035302520151050

Age

Male Female

Cost-of-living Increases--2009 Was Pretty Low

1.5%

1%

1.7%

2.8%

1.9%

2.7% 2.6%

3.1% 3.2%

2.2%

4.6%

1.2%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Changes in Anchorage's CPI-U

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.