The Goals of Analysis are Understanding, Decisions, and ...
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The Goals of Analysis are Understanding, Decisions, and Influencing Policy Gerald Brown Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943 [email protected] , hIp://faculty.nps.edu/gbrown/ "I am not bound to please thee with my answer.” Shakespeare, Merchant of Venice 4(1)b 1
Transcript of The Goals of Analysis are Understanding, Decisions, and ...
TheGoalsofAnalysisareUnderstanding,Decisions,and
InfluencingPolicyGeraldBrown
NavalPostgraduateSchoolMonterey,[email protected],
hIp://faculty.nps.edu/gbrown/"Iamnotboundtopleasetheewithmyanswer.”
Shakespeare,MerchantofVenice4(1)b
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WhyareYouinOR?
• LovemathemaVcs?• Enjoydesigningalgorithms?• Liketosolvepuzzles?• Thinkit’scooltobecalled“Professor?”
• Or,doyouwanttoinfluencepolicy?
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USNavy?• BreIonWoodsaccords,1944• TheUSannouncedaglobal,liberaltradingsystemthatconsVtutestheheartoftheUSmariVmeapproachtosecurity.ItisbasedonthefreemovementinthemariVmedomainandontheworkingsofthemarket.
• Thelast70yearshavebeenthemostpeacefulmari7meepochinrecordedhistory.
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NavalPostgraduateSchool?
• Whatdowedo?• InOR,wedomilitaryOR.• Weareatrustedsourceofanalysisforourgovernment.
• ThisworkhasinfluencedoveratrillionUSdollarsofinvestment,
andsavedlives.
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NavalPostgraduateSchool?
• YoumightopVmallydesignanetwork,andwemightbeinterestedindegradingit,ordestroyingit.
• Wemightbeconcernedthatsomeoneelsecoulddegradeordestroyournetwork.
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ExampleApplicaVons
• ReplenishmentatSea(USNavy)– IncreaseoperaVonalpresence,savemoney
• AirTasking(USAirForce)– Savelives
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ReplenishmentatSeaPlanner
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TheUSNavyoperatesworldwide,andcannotassumeaccesstoportfaciliVes.USNavyistheonlynavythatcansustainitselfdeployedatseavirtuallyindefinitely.But,Navyshipsneedfuel,ordnance,anddrystores.Wegotoourshipstodeliverthesewithunderwayreplenishments.
ReplenishmentatSeaPlanner
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ReplenishmentatSeaPlanner
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9,000tonshipsconnectedcloseabeamat20+knots
NavyHelopilotsoperateinallweatherandallseastates–thisispreIysportyflying
AirTasking
• USAirForceusescargoplanestomovepersonnelaswellascargo
• KeepingpersonneloutofgroundconvoysavoidsImprovisedExplosiveDevices
• USAirForcecalledusandasked“canyouimproveourefficiency?”
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AirTasking
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RobDellgetshisownexecuVvejet,buthastohaulhisownbag.
AirTasking
12Forscale,that’sRobDellontheC-17cargoramp.
AirTasking
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Partofourairfieldnetwork,usedbyouraircraneverynight.
AirTasking
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• It’spreIygraVfyingtogetaleIerfromaGeneral,
• thankingyoufor“fixing”things,• andsavinganesVmatedXcasualVes,
andYKIA’s(fataliVes)permonth.
NowBacktoOurTopicToday
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Ifyoutracktheconsequencesof(too)muchofORresearch…
• Immediateconsequenceisexceedinglyrare• Intermediate-termconsequenceisrare• Significantpolicychangeisextremelyrare,andusuallyappearsonlyanerlongerdelaysthanmostanalystscanafford
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Ifyoutracktheconsequencesofmuchofourresearch…
• "Thefault,dearBrutus,isnotinourstars,butinourselves,thatweareunderlings.“
Shakespeare,JuliusCaesar1(2)• Ourscholarlytrainingdoesnotprepareustoinfluencepolicy.
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ProblemandAnalysisTypes
• ThisisagnosVcabouttheanalysismethod(s):simulaVon,stochasVcs,opVmizaVon,…
• PrescripVve,DescripVve,NormaVve
• Thegoalisinfluencingpolicy
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QualifyingaWorthyProblem
• Howwillyousolvethisproblem?• Whatistheproblem?• Whyisthisproblemimportant?• Howisthisproblemnowsolved?• Howwillyousolvethisproblem?• Howwillyouknowwhenyouhavesucceeded?
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Whatistheproblem?
• TheclientnevergivesyouanunambiguousproblemdescripVon.
• Theclientusesvernacularthatmustbedevelopedintoalexiconofclearlydevelopedterms.
• Onentheproblemhasnotbeenisolated,butitssymptomsareevident.
• SomeVmesthisstepisthelast.
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Onentheproblemhasnotbeenisolated,butitssymptomsareevident.
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Whyisthisproblemimportant?
• Isthisproblemworthyofanalysis?• Whatisthecostofignoringit?• WhoownsthesoluVonofthisproblem?• SomeVmesthisstepisthelast,
andthatisembarrassing.
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Howisthisproblemnowsolved?
• Rareistheproblemnotalreadybeingsolved.• Thumbrules,markerpensandwhiteboards,spreadsheets,tribalwisdom,…canbeveryeffecVve.
• DoesthesoluVonchangetheproblem?• AretheredomainlimitsofanacceptablesoluVon?
• SomeVmesthisstepisthelast,andthatisembarrassing.
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Howwillyousolvethisproblem?
• Thisisthefunpart,butnottheonlypartofqualifyingaproblem.• IsthepathtosoluVonclear,oristhisnewground?
• SomeVmesthisstepisthelast,andthatcanbeembarrassing.
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Howwillyouknowwhenyouhavesucceeded?
• Recall,we’reansweringallthesequalifyingquesVonsBEFOREcommencinganalysis.
• Setthebarforsuccessapriori,andbewaryofanybodymovingit(upordown).
• SomeVmesthisstepisthelast,andwhenitisn’t,thiscanbeembarrassing.
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WhyNotBriefAn“OpVmal”SoluVon?
• Isthe“why”asclearasthe“what?”• IsthesoluVonintuiVve,ormagic?• DoesthissoluVon“changeeverything?”• IsthissoluVonfragile,orrobust?• WilltheclientsVllbeincharge?• ModeraVonisavirtue.
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GoodReasonsforLessThan“OpVmal”Advice
• Understandable.• AcVonable.• Legal.• Persistent.• Monotonic.• Robust.• Resilient.
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Understandable
• Goodluckconvincingadecisionmakertoadoptapolicythatisnotunderstandable
• SomeVmesyouneedtointroduceasoluVonincrementally
• SomeVmesyouneedtodemonstratewithmanyexamples
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AcVonable
• ThesoluVonmustbeinthedomainofthepermiIed
• Or,youmanybesuggesVngreplacingaworthyproblem
byanother,harderone
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AcVonable
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WesuggestedreallyefficientlaunchschedulesfortheUSAirForceSpaceCommand,butneglectedsomeessenValdetails.
AcVonableNon-intuiVveanswerscanbeachallengetoexplain.Wediscoveredasinglekeycomponentforafirstnuclearweaponthatcouldbeinterdicted.Thiswasnotonanybody’s“criVcalpath.”
InterdictaNon-CriVcalAcVvity
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Legal
• See“AcVonable”• Thiscomesupmoreonenthatwe’dlike
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PersistentExpectresistanceifananswersuggestsawholesalescrambleofpre-exisVng,announceddecisions.
ThisisnotopVmal,butispersistent
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Monotonic
• Asabudgetincreases,opVmalincrementalinvestmentsdonotnecessarilyappearmonotonically
• A1;A1,A2;A1,B1;A1,A2,A3;B1,B2;…
• Thisdrivespolicytypesnuts.
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Monotonic
OpVmalvs.PrioriVzed(Monotonic)AIacks
Resid
ualcapacity
<=th
isisbasispoint
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Resilient
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Robust
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CombiningEverything
ThebestexecuVvesummaryIs3-10pageslongemployssimplegraphicswithtechnicallegends(seeScienVficAmerican,orAmericanScienVst)
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CombiningEverything
ThebestexecuVvepresentaVonis5-10slidesinlengthandincludesa“MoneySlide”
39Numberslidesforreference:==>
Money Slide
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WhyareYouinOR?
• LovemathemaVcs?• Enjoydesigningalgorithms?• Liketosolvepuzzles?• Thinkit’scooltobecalled“Professor?”
• Or,doyouwanttoinfluencepolicy?
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QuesVons?
• “Icannootheranswermake,but,thanks,andthanks.”Shakespeare,12-thNight3(3)
Fullbackgroundmaterials:hIp://faculty.nps.edu/gbrown/CopyofthispresentaVonorcorrespondence:[email protected]
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