The global voice of ATM The Global Voice of ATM ADS-B in APAC and ADS-B Benefits.

The global voice of ATM

The Global Voice of ATM

ADS-B in APAC and ADS-B Benefits

Background

In July 2008, CANSO agreed to conduct a Cost Benefit Analysis for the ADS-B project over the South China Sea involving Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore.

The study was conducted with the support of IATA and CANSO members (FAA and CAAS) and completed in 2009.



Objectives

To determine the benefits & costs of

ADS-B implementation for the project

As an example of good governance in

developing a business case for the

project

To promote regional collaboration and

harmonisation among ANSPs and users


Project Scope


Study Assumptions

ADS-B data sharing across FIRsProvision of VHF communications to adjacent ANSPs when requiredProvision of radar-like separation in restricted airspaceAnalysis based on extrapolation of CAAS traffic data and IATA’s demand projectionsEstimated infrastructure cost


Traffic Demand Forecast

Given the recent economic downturn and the volatility of projections, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on the following scenarios:

Low: 3% growth Medium: 5% growthHigh: 7% growth

Note: The medium and most probable growth rate for air traffic is set at 5% based on IATA’s Forecast AAGR (2007-2011) for APAC which is 5.9% for pax and 5.4% for freight.


Aircraft Equipage

Information presented at SEA ADS-B WG/1 in 2007 showed that about 60% of aircraft in the area were transmitting ADS-B data although this does not take into account the certification or accuracy of the data.A review of flights operating in the area from Jul- Oct 2008 reinforced this point, where 61.9% were assessed to be ADS-B capable.25% of the remaining were assessed as retrofit ready (during scheduled maintenance)


Aircraft Equipage

New aircraft delivered are all ADS-B capableFleet retirements due to economic climate will enhance capabilitiesRetrofit timelines would be encouraged by an effective mandateWith an effective mandate, more than 85% of aircraft would be ADS-B (Out) capable


Benefits - Optimum Flight Altitudes

Departure

Optimum (Requested) Flight Level (FL)

ANSP A ANSP B ANSP C

Estimated Elapsed Time

BENEFIT BENEFITAssumed FL

In FIR AAssumed FL

In FIR C

Actual FLIn FIR B

Examine fuel savings for flights that currently do not receive optimum altitude Examine flights that are currently delayed before receiving optimum altitude.

Destination

DATADATADATA


Benefits - Capacity IncreaseExamine delays due to limited capacity vs. the demand forecast.Examine hourly demand vs. hourly capacity and run a queuing model to estimate delay difference between baseline capacity and new ADS-B enabled capacityMonetize delay savings benefit in terms of reduced Aircraft Direct Operating Costs and Passenger Value of Time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 5 10 15 20

Local Hour

Ho

url

y D

em

an

d in

Re

gio

n

20072010201520202025Baseline CapacityNew Capacity

Example of Hourly Demand


Costs - Infrastructure

ADS-B stationsVHF radio & communications circuitsATM system upgrades where applicableProject management & trainingRecurrent costs e.g. maintenance and sparesSupporting infrastructure if needed


Economic Analysis Business Case

– Net Present Value (NPV) [> 0]– Benefit to Cost Ratio (B/C ratio) [> 1]– Internal Rate of Return (IRR) [> Cost of Capital]– Payback Year

($1,000)

($500)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

Cu

mu

lative P

resen

t V

alu

e $M

Example of outputs

SE Asia - Most Likely Estimate

($20)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032

Cu

mu

lati

ve P

rese

nt

Val

ue

$M

3% growth

5% growth

7% growth

Results of Cost Benefit Study(For a 5% medium traffic growth scenario)

Annual savings of nearly 3 million lbs of fuel burn Annual reduction of 10 million lbs of CO2 emissionsTotal Economic savings of over US $ 4m annuallyIRR of 22%



Other Benefits

Improved safety – enhanced tracking of

aircraft, weather deviations etc

Improved surveillance facilitates Search and

Rescue efforts

Environmental benefits – greater operational

efficiency leading to lower carbon emissions

Improved flight data collection for analysis

and planning

Recommendation of SEA/BOB ADS-B WG/7

“ADS-B Out” based surveillance applications as modules be included in the Aviation System Block Upgrade Document. These modules

should include:

- Improved air traffic operations through provision of surveillance (using ADS-B or radar);

- Improved access to optimum flight levels through climb/descent & cruise using ADS-B or radar; and

-Improved safety, efficiency and seamlessness using shared surveillance services across FIR boundaries.

Post Meeting:

ICAO Headquarters accepted this and agreed that an amended ASBU B0-85 Module would be developed to take this into account.

Cost Benefit Study for South China Sea project

Completed and published in May 2009.

Available to download from:

www.canso.org/asiapacific

Project milestones for initial phase of ADS-B implementation over the South China Sea

A Installation of ADS-B ground stationsNatunas and Matak - completedSingapore - completedCon Son - 2H 2012

B Installation of VHF stations and links i) Natunas and Matak - 1H2012 ii) Conson - 2H2012

C Signing of ADS-B data and VHF radio facility sharing agreementi) Between Indonesia and Singapore - 2H2010 completedii) Between Vietnam and Singapore - 2H2011 completed

D Signing of LOA between Ho Chi Minh and Singapore ACCs - 1H2012 E Issue AIC on aircraft equipage mandate - 2H 2010

completed F Technical Monitoring of ADS-B operations - 1H 2012G Operational trial and implementaion - 2H 2012/implementation

2H2013H Exclusive ADS-B operations for L642 and M771 above FL290 -

2H2013

Proposed ADS-B coverage for additional high density routes over the South China Sea

Current ADS-B Project Coverage

Operational Trials on L642 and M771

Proposed ADS-B Coverage

Routes benefitting from the additional coverage

Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) Seminar for Department of Civil Aviation, Myanmar

Civil Aviation Training Institute, Yangon22 February 2011

Yangon International Airport

Manday International Airport

Myeik Airport

Radar

3 SSR radar for En-route1 PSR for Terminal

ADS-BLashio Airport

Pathein Airport

5 ADS-B stations proposed

Myanmar ADS-B Implementation Plan

Sittwe Airport

Coo co island Airport

Kyaing Tone Airport

Potential ADS-B coverage for high density routes over Bay of Bengal

Potential ADS-B coverage from sites on land

Potential ADS-B coverage from offshore sites

High Density Routes over Bay of Bengal

SittweYangon

Coco

Lashio

Kawthaung

Myeik

t

India and Myanmar: ADS-B sites announced to-date

Vishakhapatnam

Aceh

Port Blair

Coco Island

Potential ADS-B coverage from sitesHigh Density Routes Benefitting from ADS-B Coverage

L510

P628 L759

M770

N877

P762

Vishakhapatnam

FIG 2C

Potential ADS-B coverage from sites

Port Blair

Sittwe

High Density Routes Benefitting from ADS-B Coverage

Coco Island

Yangon

Calcutta

L507

P646

N895

M770

48th DGCA CONFERENCE Action Item 48/4:

Recognising that the full benefits of ADS-B would only be achieved through

harmonized implementation, the Conference urges States and Administrations to expedite ADS-B implementation and share

with ICAO Regional Office their implementation plans.


Regional Collaboration


In 2009 intra-Asia Pacific travel eclipsed North America as the world’s largest aviation market.


CANSO HeadquartersTranspolis Schiphol Airport Polaris Avenue 85e2132 JH Hoofddorpthe Netherlands

tel: +31 (0)23 568 5380fax: +31 (0)23 568 5389email: [email protected]

The Global Voice of ATM

The global voice of ATM The Global Voice of ATM ADS-B in APAC and ADS-B Benefits.

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