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The Global Imprint of Warming on Life
AAAS/Carnegie PCAST Climate Change Report Anniversary, DC 2015
Camille Parmesan
Professor, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, England
Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin
High Consistency among Global Meta-analyses of Recent Changes in Biological Systems
Study N: species + functional groupings
% Changing: distribution/ phenology
% changes consistent with Climate Change
Parmesan & Yohe Nature
2003 1598 59 % 84 %
Root et al. Nature 2003 1468 40 % 82.3 %
Root et al. PNAS 2005 145 - 92 %
Rosenzweig et al Nature 2008 55 studies - 90 %
Poloczanska et al. Nature
Climate Change 2013
857 76 % 83 %
Trends in Land and Ocean Temperatures – past 50 years
Burrows et al.Science 2011
Temperature change 1960-2009 (°C/decade)
Velocity of Temperature Shifts in Space
R a t e o f c h a n g e i n l o c a t i o n s o f t e m p e r a t u r e i s o t h e r m s i n p a s t 5 0 ye a r s 1 9 6 0 - 2 0 0 9 ( k m / d e c a d e )
Burrows et al. Science 2011
k m / d e c a d e g e o g r a p h i c s h i f t s o f i s o t h e r m s
fast
moderate
slow
Species Shi f t ing in to His tor ica l ly Cooler Lands and Waters
M a r i n e : m e a n s h i f t = 4 7 m i / d e c a d e ( 1 m e t a - a n a l y s i s )
Te r r e s t r i a l : m e a n s h i f t = 4 & 11 m i / d e c a d e ( 2 m e t a - a n a l y s e s )
B u t t e r f l i e s > 1 2 4 m i l e s i n 5 y r s
P u r p l e e m p e r o r
b o n y f i s h : > 1 2 4 m i / d e c At l a n t i c c o d
d i a t o m ~ 2 5 0 m i / d e c Poloczanska et al Nature Climate Change 2013; Chen et al. Science 2011; Parmesan Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst 2006; Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003; Parmesan et al. Nature 1999
Velocity of Recent Temperature Isotherms Shifts (VoCC) Correctly Predicts Observed Range Shifts:
• Use to predict sources, corridors, barriers & sinks
Strong Sink
Sink & Barrier
Mild Sink
Inflow & Termination “Sinks”
Mild Sources
Strong Sources Non-moving
Slow moving
Stable “Refugia”
Movement Into “Species Gains”
Net Outflow “Species Loss”
Burrows et al. Nature 2014
Corridors Convergence
Purple emperor (Apatura iris)
Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982; Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. comm.
2 independent invasions
Northward expansion of A i r is : * Ba l t ic was barr ier ( lag of 10-20 years) * Rapid expansion a f ter ar r iva l in FN & SW * Both correct ly predic ted by VoCC
P Schappert
apollo, Europe & Nepal
pika, USA & Nepal
Mountaintop species going extinct at lowest elevations
white lemuroid possum , Australia
Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1)
Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade
Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade
Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1) Juvenile fish & zooplankton (12) faster than phytoplankton (6) & molluscs (0)
Spr ing advancing 3-4 d/decade
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
• Near ly ¾ of p lants in long- term UK dataset a re dr iven only by spr ing temperatures
• Warmer spr ings cause advanced f lower ing
Observed changes in timing of first flowering
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
• For species that requi re w inter ch i l l ing: • Winter warming causes de lay • Spr ing warming causes advancement • Observed changes are sum of two
opposing dr ivers
only respond to spring warming:
flowering earlier
red maple
creeping phlox
Signs Of Climate Change in DC
Signs Of Climate Change in DC
spring advance + winter delay = little change
mock strawberry
dandelion
Precipitation can be stronger driver than temperature
• Cal i forn ia s tudy – 64 p lant species • censuses in 1930s and 2000s • 72 % of p lants sh i f ted downslope:
o 269 f t . on average • Temperatures increased:
o + 1 .2°F (mean annua l ) • Rain & snow increased across
nor thern hal f o f CA • Downward expansions fo l lowed
increased water avai lab i l i ty Crimmins et al. Science 2011
0 150 -100
Cal i forn ia
Change in to ta l annual prec ip i ta t ion (mm): t ime per iods 1920 - 1949 vs 1976 - 2005
Mountain hemlock expanded 837 ft downhil l in California
Photo: Charles Webber, California Academy of Sciences
S i n c e 1 9 3 0 s t e m p e r a t u r e 5 ° F w a t e r d e f i c i t 5 . 3 i n .
Summary – responses of wild species to 0.7°C global increase since 1900
• ~ half of species have shifted their ranges poleward (50 - 1600 km) and/or upward (up to 400 m)
• ~ two-thirds of species studied have shifted towards earlier spring breeding, migrating, blooming….
• Every major group studied has been affected • trees, herbs, butterflies, birds, mammals, amphibians,
corals, invertebrates, fish, marine mammals & plankton • New research documents complex responses -
pr ior s tudies of propor t ion of species impacted by c l imate change are under -est imates Parmesan AREES 2006; Parmesan et al. Nature CC 2013;
Poloczanska et al. Nature CC 2013; Parmesan & Hanley Ann Botany in press
Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012
Al l p lants were equal ly sensi t ive to spr ing warming, but d i f fer ing responses to w inter
warming drove d i f ferences in observed shi f ts in t iming of f lower ing