The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions...

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IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The Global EV Outlook 2019 – life-cycle analysis ITF workshop “LCA of urban transport business models”, 1 October 2019, Paris Marine Gorner, International Energy Agency

Transcript of The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions...

Page 1: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

The Global EV Outlook 2019 – life-cycle analysis

ITF workshop “LCA of urban transport business models”, 1 October 2019, Paris

Marine Gorner, International Energy Agency

Page 2: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

The Clean Energy Ministerial Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)

Members

(2018-19)

(Co-lead) (Co-lead)

Coordinator

Activities

Analytical publications Commitments

EV3@30 Campaign (2017)

• Paris Declaration on Electro-

Mobility and Climate Change

(COP 21)

• Government Fleet Declaration

(COP 22)

Collaborative projects

• Global EV Pilot City Programme

• € 4 million global electric mobility

project for emerging economies

(with UNEP and the GEF)

Page 3: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Global EV Outlook 2019 – Contents

The 2019 edition includes:

• Updated EV market statistics (EV stock, sales EVSE)

• Overview of existing policies and targets

• Analysis of industry rollout plans (EV, EVSE, batteries)

• Role of EVs in low carbon scenarios (2030 timeframe and beyond)

• Implications on EVSE deployment, battery capacity and material demand)

• Electricity demand, oil displacement and WTW GHG emission mitigation

• Comparative life cycle GHG emissions assessment for different powertrains

• Battery technology and cost assessment

• Implications on the TCO of road vehicles

• EV battery materials and supply chain sustainability discussion

• Implications of electric mobility for the power system

• Impact of EVs uptake on government revenues from taxation

https://webstore.iea.org/global-ev-outlook-2019

Page 4: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – methodology

The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook 2019

results from the combination of GREET 2 and the Mobility Model.

Life-cycle GHG emissions assessment of cars for GEVO 2019

(global perspective)

Vehicle emissions from materials

(manufacturing, maintenance,

disposal/recycling)

Tool: GREET 2

Developed by Argonne National Lab

Vehicle emissions from fuel use

for motion

Tool: Mobility Model and GFEI analysis

Developed by International Energy Agency

Page 5: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

GREET 2

• Passenger cars, SUVs, Pick-up trucks

→ 3 sizes (based on GFEI)

• ICE, HEV (Ni-MH), BEV (Li-ion), PHEV (Li-ion),

FCEV (Ni-MH)

• Battery size 11kWh (PHEV), 38kWh (BEV 200

km), 78 kWh (BEV 400 km)

• LMO, NMC 111, LFP, NMC 622, NMC 811,

LMR-NMC, NCA

• Vehicle lifetime 15 000 km/year, 10 years

• Conventional materials, lightweight materials

(GHG emissions intensity of materials and

processes: US scope)

Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – key parameters

The combination of both models allowed for the life-cycle comparison of GHG emissions for 5

powertrain types and 3 vehicle sizes, in conditions considered to be representative of the global average.

Mobility Model

• WLTP fuel economy by powertrain, by car size,

based on GFEI

• BEV and PHEV fuel economy on electricity

includes 5% charging losses

• E-driving rate of PHEVs: 60% electric

• Global average well-to-wheel GHG emissions

of gasoline

• Global average and regional GHG emissions of

electricity generation, transmission and

distribution

Red and Blue: inputs and assumptions used in Global

EV Outlook 2019 analysis

Page 6: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – batteries

A rate of 75 kg CO2-eq/kWh was considered representative of current commercial battery manufacturing.

A 50-150 range was also taken into account in the analysis to encompass other possible cases.

1. Literature review

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Ellingsen et al.

(2014)

Majeau-

Bettez et al.

(2011)

Kim et al.

(2016)

US-EPA

(2013)

Lastoskie et

al. (2015)

GREET 2018 Dunn et al.

(2016)

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

₂-eq

/kW

h)

or

batt

ery

energ

y d

ensi

ty (

Wh/k

g)

Energ

y use

(M

J/kW

h)

Battery energy density (right axis)Energy use (left axis)GHG emissions (right axis)GHG emissions range used in our sensitivity analysis

2. Research on GREET approach: battery pack manufacturing 75 kg CO2/kWh, NMC 111, plant size 2GWh and capacity

factor 75% (representative of current commercial battery manufacturing)

3. Validation of GREET approach as satisfactory proxy for current commercial manufacturing globally, in this exercise.

Possibility for regional refinement in future analysis.

(2014) Bettez et al.

(2011)

(2016) (2013) al. (2015)

Battery energy density (right axis)Energy use (left axis)GHG emissions (right axis)GHG emissions range used in our sensitivity analysis

Page 7: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – results

With the global average GHG intensity of electricity generation, EVs, FCEVs and HEVs have similar performance.

If electricity generation decarbonises, GHG emissions of BEVs and PHEVs can significantly decline.

Life-cycle GHG emissions for passenger cars by powertrain, 2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV

t CO2-eq Effect of larger

battery (+ 200 km)

Tank-to-wheel fuel

cycle

Well-to-tank fuel

cycle

Vehicle cycle -

batteries (200 km)

Vehicle cycle -

assembly, disposal

and recycling

Vehicle cycle -

components and

fluids

Variability relative

to vehicle size

H2 production pathway

assumption: steam

methane reforming from

natural gas

(representative of

current production)

(Large car)

(Small car)

(Medium car)

Page 8: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – sensitivity to mileage

Life-cycle GHG emissions savings for BEVs kick-in from 25 000 – 60 000 km depending on driving

range.

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Life

-cyc

le G

HG

em

issi

ons

savi

ng

s o

f a m

id-

size

BEV

and

HEV

rela

tive

to

an IC

E v

ehic

le.

Mileage over vehicle lifetime (km)

BEV - range

200 km

BEV - range

400 km

HEV

Page 9: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – sensitivity to size

GHG emissions savings from electric vehicles relative to equivalent ICE vehicles increase with size

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

70 110 200

tCO2eq

Vehicle power (kW)

ICE

PHEV (30% e-driving)

PHEV (70% e-driving)

BEV (400 km range)

BEV (200 km range)

Page 10: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – sensitivity to power mix

Over their life cycle, the extent of GHG emissions savings of BEVs relative to ICE vehicles depends on

the carbon intensity of electricity generation for final use and the size of the car.

Life-cycle GHG emissions savings of a BEV relative to an ICE vehicle of the same size under various power system carbon intensities

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Carbon intensity of the power system (g CO₂-eq/kWh)

Large car (BEV battery manufacturing 50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Mid-size car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Small car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Mid-size car (range 200 km, BEV battery manufacturing 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Mid-size car (400 km, 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Note: in this graph, only

the GHG emissions from

fuel use for motion vary

according to the x axis

Page 11: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

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Possible future research areas

• Addition of significant materials recycling rates, in

particular for batteries (potential tradeoff between raw

materials production energy use and recycling energy use)

• Variation of materials/battery production for some

materials (e.g. aluminum) based on e.g. plant scale, region

→ Kelly, Dai and Wang, Aug. 2019 - ANL: regionalization of

battery manufacturing process and material supply chains

• Evolution of emissions based on IEA scenarios for ICE

improvement and power system decarbonisation potential

• Consideration of next generation battery technologies and

chemistries

There is scope for refining the analysis in particular with regards to regionalisation, bearing in mind the

trade-off with increased complexity.

GHG emissions associated with NMC111 LIB

production in five countries

Source: Kelly, Dai & Wang, Argonne National Laboratory, 2019

Page 12: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Page 13: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Assessing electric cars on a lifecycle basis

In order for life-cycle GHG emissions of BEVs to break even with HEVs, the carbon intensity of the electricity consumed in

the use phase must be lower than when comparing BEVs with ICE vehicles.

Life-cycle GHG emissions savings of a BEV relative to an HEV of the same size under various power system carbon intensities

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Carbon intensity of the power system (g CO₂-eq/kWh)

Large car (BEV battery manufacturing 50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Mid-size car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Small car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Mid-size car (range 200 km, BEV battery manufacturing 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Mid-size car (400 km, 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)

Page 14: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Battery chemistries affect EVs’ life-cycle GHG emissions

The mix of active materials in the cathode is the main determinant of battery manufacturing emissions.

The NMC 111 chemistry is the most GHG-intensive of the five chemistries shown and LFP is the lowest.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

32%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LFP NCA NMC811 NMC622 NMC111

% o

f to

tal life

-cycl

e G

HG

em

issi

ons

kgCO2eq/kWh Other

Copper

Graphite/Carbon

Electronic parts

Aluminum

Cathode active material

Battery assembly

BEV 200 km range (right axis)

BEV 400 km range (right axis)

Page 15: The Global EV Outlook 2019 life-cycle analysis · Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions –methodology The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Electric mobility increases demand for new materials

In both scenarios, demand for cobalt, lithium, manganese and nickel are expected to rise significantly

by 2030. Scale-ups in supply are needed to enable the projected EV uptake.

Increased annual demand for materials for batteries from deployment of electric vehicles by scenario, 2018-30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

NPS EV30@30

2018 2030

Meta

l Dem

and

(kt

)

Cobalt

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

NPS EV30@30

2018 2030

Lithium

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

NPS EV30@30

2018 2030

Manganese

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

NPS EV30@30

2018 2030

Nickel class I

Note: The battery chemistry mix considered for 2030 in this analysis is composed of 10% of NCA, 40% of NMC 622 and 50% of NMC 811